Pavel K. Baev
The U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which began on February 28, caught Moscow off guard because Russian officials had only anticipated a limited strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Kremlin convened emergency meetings and publicly condemned the attacks, but provided no material support to Tehran.
Despite Iran’s recent entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023 and BRICS in 2024, Moscow avoided invoking these blocs. The crisis may further complicate already stalled U.S.–Russia talks over Ukraine. The Kremlin is chiefly concerned about how this conflict will impact global oil prices. The killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also heightens speculation about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal security concerns, reinforcing fears of regime change and exposing Russia’s inability to aid key partners.
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