For decades, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — known as ASEAN — has been treated in Washington and other capitals as a bedrock of regional stability.
It has been a model of consensus-driven diplomacy and a potential counterweight to Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
But in 2025, that image is becoming dangerously outdated. ASEAN is no longer a coherent political bloc. Fragmented by internal crises,
paralyzed in the face of regional threats, and unable to coordinate a meaningful response to the great power rivalry unfolding around it, ASEAN is collapsing — slowly, quietly, but unmistakably.
The crisis is perhaps most vivid in Myanmar, where the military junta that seized power in 2021 is now fighting for its survival.
The country is in open civil war. Resistance groups have taken control of large parts of the borderlands,
while the regime continues to commit war crimes and ignore every diplomatic overture. ASEAN’s so-called Five-Point Consensus — once touted as a pathway to peace — has become a dead letter.
The bloc has refused to suspend Myanmar’s membership, despite growing international pressure. Its only action has been to exclude the junta from high-level summits,
Myanmar is not the only fracture. Thailand, one of ASEAN’s founding members and once seen as a stabilizing force in the region,
is now consumed by its own political drama. After the 2023 general election, the progressive Move Forward Party won the most seats,
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