The past two months have witnessed a remarkable spike in warfare involving nuclear powers. From May 7 to May 10, India and Pakistan exchanged artillery fire, bombs,
cruise missiles, and drones in their most intense round of combat since 1999. Then, on June 1, Ukraine executed a sophisticated covert operation,
deploying drones positioned deep within enemy territory to attack bombers that Russia might depend on if it were ever to launch a nuclear strike—an unprecedented direct assault on a country’s means of nuclear deterrence.
And on June 13, 200 Israeli aircraft carried out a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and strategic targets. Iran retaliated by sending hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones toward Haifa, Tel Aviv,
and military installations in the heart of Israel. Although only a few dozen breached Israeli and U.S. air defenses, Iran’s response amounted to the largest military attack ever launched on the homeland of a nuclear power.
These clashes are the latest examples of an overall rise in conflicts that carry risks of nuclear escalation. First, nonnuclear powers are attacking nuclear powers in unprecedented and aggressive ways.
Even more concerning, nuclear powers are directly trading blows. These trends raise concerns that the eight-decade moratorium on large-scale war between nuclear powers has ended.
Although it is too early to tell whether another great-power war is on the horizon, the dangers of nuclear escalation are unmistakable.
Clashes involving nuclear powers now echo the Cold War’s most dangerous moments. A realistic possibility is that today’s clashes become a new normal, with an elevated risk of events spinning out of control.
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