Azriel Bermant
The war between Israel and Iran has brought only short-term gains for Russia. Looking to the longer term, we see much bigger negatives.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky complained that the war had resulted in a sharp rise in oil prices, benefitting Russia. It also diverted world attention from the war in Ukraine, giving Russia more freedom to launch attacks against the country. Indeed, Russia continues to make gains in Ukraine and is producing four times as much ammunition as NATO is. It is easy to see why some in Russia had welcomed the prospect of a regional war in the Middle East.
Yet this is deceptive. Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities showed Iran’s vulnerabilities. This is important as Russia and Iran signed an agreement for strategic cooperation in January 2025 and the two countries’ anti-Western positions are very similar.
The overall assessment of Arkady Mil-Man, a former Israeli ambassador to Russia, is that longer-term damage to Russia’s interests outweigh any short-term gains it has accrued from Israel’s war with Iran. Russia needs Iran as a spoiler that threatens the West, but now the battered Iranian regime is in no position to help, Mil-Man told me in an interview.
Furthermore, Moscow has relied heavily on Iran’s supply of Shahed 131 and Shahed 136 drones. Although Russia has set up domestic Shahed production, it probably still wants Iranian supply. Debris recently found in Ukraine suggests that Russia is continuing to benefit from new Iranian technology which is used in its drones. And in 2024 Iran supplied Russia with short-range ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. Again, Russia presumably has been looking forward to getting more.
The strategic cooperation agreement did not oblige the Russians to come to the defence of Iran, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has made this clear. Yet even if it wanted to do so, Russia is incapable of supporting Iran militarily because it needs ammunition for its own war.
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