What’s new? Changing global and regional conditions are giving Myanmar’s military regime greater room for manoeuvre. Growing diplomatic fatigue in Western capitals, China’s moves to prevent regime collapse, shifts in U.S. policy and other geopolitical realignments are hastening normalisation of relations with Naypyitaw’s rulers, despite worsening conflict. Why does it matter? As geopolitical shifts give neighbouring countries more latitude to engage Naypyitaw, Myanmar’s conflict and humanitarian crisis could face ever greater neglect.
Planned elections will lack credibility and may lead to further violence, even as they could encourage some governments to normalise ties with a future military-backed administration. What should be done? Diplomats should preserve multilateral coordination on Myanmar, above all at the UN Security Council and Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and be ready to seize any opening for a peaceful settlement. They should avoid conferring legitimacy on the regime’s elections, while donors should sustain humanitarian and other vital programming.
Myanmar’s military regime is discovering new diplomatic opportunities as global and regional politics shift. China’s recent moves to prevent the junta’s collapse, diminishing Western interest, chaotic U.S. foreign policy and regional fatigue with a protracted conflict are reshaping the international environment. These trends have led to a gradual thaw in relations between many Asian countries and Naypyitaw, even as the regime continues to lose ground in the post-2021 coup conflict and humanitarian conditions worsen.
Elections planned for late in the year will not resolve the political impasse and will likely be violent, but they may offer a convenient pretext for some governments to deepen engagement with the junta. Instead of rushing to recognise the country’s military rulers, foreign powers should preserve what limited space remains for coordinated diplomacy on Myanmar, particularly at the UN Security Council and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), standing ready to seek a peaceful settlement if the opening arises but not conferring unwarranted legitimacy on the forthcoming polls.
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