Moscow Using Svalbard to Test NATO’s Readiness and Resolve

Paul Goble

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Moscow is using drone incursions in Romania and Poland to test the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) readiness and resolve, seeking to highlight divisions over how to respond to this new form of aggression.

Moscow’s simultaneous moves in Svalbard (Spitzbergen), a Norwegian archipelago with special status under the terms of a 1920 treaty granting Russia and more than 40 other countries economic rights, show that Moscow is engaged in a broader strategy against NATO.

This broader strategy does not mean that Putin is about to send bombers or tanks into NATO countries, but suggests the Kremlin leader is seeking to sow doubts about NATO mutual defense commitments, weakening Western diplomatic cohesion and military support for Ukraine.

Moscow’s drone incursions into Poland and Romania on September 9 and 13 have attracted enormous attention and concern. Exactly as Russian President Vladimir Putin intends, it has highlighted and exacerbated divisions within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) about how to respond to this new form of aggression featuring a degree of plausible deniability for Putin. The Kremlin leader’s moves in Svalbard (Spitzbergen), a strategically important Norwegian archipelago in the North Atlantic, however, make it clear that the drone incursions are part of a larger Russian move against NATO. Moscow’s actions in Svalbard have been largely ignored in the West outside of Norway because, under the terms of a 1920 treaty giving them to Oslo, Russia and more than 40 other countries have the right to engage in economic and research activities there, and the Norwegian government has limited rights to respond. As a result, many assume that Russia has a legitimate right to its controversial moves on Svalbard and Norway must respond with extreme restraint (see EDM, May 30, 2024, March 31). Moscow is the only treaty signatory aside from Norway that utilizes its commercial rights on Svalbard and is now aggressively pushing the boundaries of its rights there. Neither Russia’s moves against Poland and Romania nor its actions in Svalbard mean that Russia is about to send troops or tanks into any of these places, but they are evidence of a common Russian strategy meant to test mutual defense commitments and weaken diplomatic cohesion among the alliance.