The Meaning of Russia’s Drone Incursion Into Poland

Antonia Colibasanu and Andrew Davidson

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On Sept. 9, Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace during a wider strike on Ukraine, forcing Warsaw to close airports, scramble defenses and shoot down multiple intruding aircraft. NATO assisted in the defense. Polish authorities reportedly clocked nearly 20 drones, some of which allegedly entered from Belarus. Though debris from the intercepted drones caused some property damage, no major casualties were reported.

This is not the first time Russian drones have brushed up against the territory of a NATO member state. On several occasions, drones were used against Ukrainian cities near the mouth of the Danube River and thus close to the Romanian border. (In response, the government in Bucharest enacted a law in early 2025 that permits its military to shoot down drones in Romanian airspace.) But this is the first time a NATO member has engaged Russian drones directly within its own borders.

Poland later invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which calls for urgent consultations with the North Atlantic Council if a member believes its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. It doesn’t trigger collective defense (that’s Article 5), but it essentially serves as an alarm bell for potential action by mobilizing coordinated political and military responses, up to and including deployments and posture changes. Poland’s invocation of Article 4 matters because it shows how thin the difference is between marginal spillover and alliance-wide escalation, and it demands debate not just about defending Ukraine but also about protecting the integrity of NATO itself.

The first matter of debate is whether it was an intentional attack. Moscow insists that it did not target Poland deliberately, but the breadth and depth of the incursions suggest Russia could have avoided the border if it wanted to. Indeed, the number of drones tracked and the fact that debris was scattered across several disparate locations make it unlikely they all simply drifted off course due to electronic interference or navigational drift. Moreover, many of the drones are thought to have been decoys – cheaper airframes without explosive payloads that are designed to draw the attention of air defenses and exploit gaps in Ukraine’s coverage. Polish reports even circulated images of Chinese-made “Gerbera” drones among the wreckage. Still, the fact that these are unmanned vehicles gives plausible deniability.