Anat Shapira, Idit Shafran Gittleman, Yarden Assraf and Dana Karniely
Introduction
(FPRI) — Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s military campaign against Iran, commenced on June 13, 2025, the 615th day of the ongoing Swords of Iron war against Hamas. The launch was immediately felt on the Israeli home front: Air raid sirens sounded nationwide in the early hours of the morning, directing citizens into shelters, while the defense minister announced that Israeli forces had struck targets deep inside Iranian territory.
The declaration placed the country under a formal state of emergency. The initiation of Rising Lion occurred within a domestic context already marked by acute political polarization and prolonged societal strain. Public debate in Israel had been dominated by disputes directly linked to the war in Gaza — most notably over government policy toward Gaza itself and the unresolved hostage crisis. At the same time, the war had exacerbated older structural controversies within Israeli society, such as the contentious question of ultra-Orthodox military service. The day before the operation began was marked by political turbulence, with fears of the government’s collapse sparked by the ongoing conscription law crisis. Thus, while the campaign against Iran represented a new strategic phase in Israel’s external conflict, it took place alongside pre-existing internal divisions, which shaped the conditions under which Israeli society would experience and respond to the escalation.
This chapter examines the domestic response of the Israeli public to Operation Rising Lion through the lens of public opinion surveys conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) Data Analytics Center during and after the campaign, combined with media and social media monitoring and other indicators.[1] The analysis proceeds in four stages. First, it documents the immediate “rally around the flag” effect, reflected in overwhelming support fot the war, heightened trust in political and military institutions, increased perceptions of social solidarity, and confidence in the preparedness of the home front. Following that, it explores the limits of this effect by situating the operation within the broader context of the ongoing Gaza war, demonstrating how the persistence of attritional conflict constrained enthusiasm and reinforced public skepticism. Third, it analyzes perceptions of the operations achievements, with particular attention to the shifting official objectives, the conditional nature of public support, and the influence of U.S. involvement in shaping expectations. Finally, it considers the aftermath of the ceasefire, highlighting the rapid reemergence of polarization around Gaza policy and structural societal divisions such as ultra-Orthodox conscription. The chapter’s findings point to the conclusion that short successful military operations such as Rising Lion may well have positive short-term effects on public trust and social cohesion, but the persistence of such effects will remain constrained by the wider context of protracted war in Gaza. So long as the Gaza war persists, and even expands — with its ongoing casualties, unresolved hostage crisis, and mounting societal strain — short, high-profile campaigns abroad are unlikely to produce lasting change in domestic dynamics.
Initial Response Among the Israeli Public
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