Ukraine’s Manpower Shortages Continue To Hobble Its Fighting Efforts – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlu

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1. Battlefield Assessment

Military activity increased across the battle space last week, with an average of over 170 tactical engagements taking place per day. The Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk sectors saw the heaviest combat, while clashes also raged in Toretsk, Kupiansk, Siversk, Kramatorsk, and in the direction of Orikhiv. Russia also heavily shelled the central district of Kherson.

Russia’s drone use has also spiked. In September the Russian military attacked Ukraine with almost 7,000 drones, more than half of which were Geran-2/Shahed 136 one-way attack drones originally engineered by Iran but now widely produced in Russia. Most of these salvos deliberately targeted civilian areas of Ukraine.

For their part, Ukrainian forces continued to attack energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territory. On October 6, Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal in Feodosia in the Crimean Peninsula, 155 miles from the front lines.

2. Ukraine’s Manpower Disadvantage Worsens

The Ukrainian military’s manpower shortages continue to cause serious problems for Kyiv. Reports from the battle space suggest that Ukraine’s dearth of infantry has left gaps along the lines of contact, which should feature uninterrupted combat groupings supporting positions within overlapping zones of defense. Ukrainian military planners have compensated by manning line infantry posts with tactically important mortar teams and even drone operators. Notably, the Ukrainian General Staff, having transitioned to a corps-centered doctrinal order of battle, is now attempting to field new combat units, such as assault troops to launch blitz offensives and specialized air defense crews to counter Russian drones.

Russia, on the other hand, has all but cemented its superior force-on-force and force-to-terrain ratios. On September 29 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a conscription decree that will draft some 135,000 fighting-age men into the Russian military. Although these draftees are not technically allowed to fight outside Russia’s borders, most are forced to sign contracts to fight in Ukraine following their official term of service.

3. Russian Drones Probe European NATO Airspace