Vladimir Putin's external ambitions, aiming to subjugate Ukraine, restore the Russian empire, undermine NATO and the EU, and re-establish a Russian sphere of influence, necessitate a comprehensive strategy from democracies. This strategy involves maintaining unwavering support for Ukraine, ensuring it becomes a prosperous, secure, and democratic EU member state, even after a potential ceasefire.
Economic pressure must intensify through tighter sanctions, support for Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and a crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, which transports nearly half of its oil exports via the Baltic Sea. Europe must also rapidly develop an independent, credible deterrence strategy to counter a potential Russian attack on NATO territory, especially between 2027-28, given the risk of a US president not honoring Article 5. Furthermore, the strategy includes disrupting Russia's hybrid campaigns, engaging various Russian constituencies, countering domestic nationalist movements, and exercising strategic patience by strengthening European societies.
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