PATRICK DRENNAN
Things aren’t looking good for Ukraine.
Russian military manpower is estimated to be at 69,432,472 combatants, while Ukraine can muster 22,806,303 — a ratio of about three to one However, Russia has mainly been on attack since 2023, a scenario where casualties are expected to be greater. Hence, Russia has a higher number of casualties, at an estimated 50,000 to 31,000. On these figures alone, Russia will eventually triumph.
But even in the age of AI algorithms, data alone does not determine the outcome. There are always outliers.
One outlier that favors Russia is their ability to pay for mercenaries. They are using their vast oil and mineral wealth to hire mercenaries from Pakistan, India and North Korea. The BBC created a useful chart that shows the increasing use of mercenaries, and conscripts from the poor parts of Russia, mainly Muslims and Siberians. Many of them are given as few as two weeks training and sent to die in headlong charges against the Ukrainian drones and artillery — often before they can be paid. On the other hand, if Ukraine can counterattack, the mercenaries are more likely than Russian regulars to surrender.
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