Country Guidance: Pakistan

European Union Agency for Asylum 

The European Union Agency for Asylum issued Country Guidance on Pakistan in October 2026 to assist EU+ decision-makers under the Qualification Regulation. Leaders and prominent members of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, leaders of groups advocating Baloch rights, journalists critical of the Pakistan armed forces, persons formally charged with blasphemy, and persons with diverse SOGIESC are assessed as highly likely to qualify for refugee status.

State actors of persecution include the armed forces, Federal Investigation Agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, paramilitary groups and police. Non-state actors include Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan, Islamic State Khorasan Province, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and Balochistan nationalist groups. Risk-impacting circumstances are listed for PTI supporters, protesters, other human-rights defenders, education personnel, polio-vaccination workers, Pashtuns, Baloch, Ahmadis, Christians, Hindus, Shia Muslims including Hazaras, women and girls, and children. No areas of mere presence or high-level indiscriminate violence were identified. Indiscriminate violence not at a high level is noted for Balochistan and south and west Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; other regions, including Islamabad Capital Territory, Punjab and Sindh, present no real risk under Article 15(c). Subsidiary protection and internal protection alternative assessments remain available where refugee status is not established.

Time For A Reset In US-Europe Relations

EUrasia review | Luke Coffey

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has angered European allies by questioning their contributions during the two-decade war in Afghanistan. His joke about the International Security Assistance Force, suggesting that ISAF meant “I Saw Americans Fighting”, drew criticism over the sacrifices of European troops, with more than 1,100 non-American personnel reportedly killed. The dispute reflects a wider deterioration in Washington’s approach to its European partners.

Luke Coffey contrasts the 2017 National Security Strategy, which recognised NATO and European allies as important partners and identified Russia as a threat, with the strategy published in late 2025. The latter gives greater attention to Europe’s perceived shortcomings and does not identify Russia as a competitor or adversary. During Donald Trump’s first term, increased European defence investment, troop deployments, military exercises and defensive weapons deliveries to Ukraine accompanied critical rhetoric. His second term has instead combined criticism with tensions over Greenland, trade and uncertainty surrounding NATO and Ukraine. Trust is harder to rebuild. Coffey stresses Europe’s economic importance, citing transatlantic trade, investment and employment, alongside shared geopolitical interests. He warns that sustained friction could weaken cooperation when Washington faces challenges across several regions.

The EU Stubbornly Continues Its Russian Energy Dependency

Eurasia Review | Andrew Moran

Nearly five years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union remains a major buyer of Russian energy. CREA data cited by Andrew Moran show the EU took 48% of Russian LNG and 32% of pipeline gas exports from December 2022 to September 2026, while still sourcing 12% of its gas from Russia, down from 45% before 2022.

Russian LNG export revenues have reached a near-four-year high, and oil-and-gas tax revenues are projected to rise about 10% year-over-year to roughly $12 billion. The European Commission disputes Moscow’s claim that Brussels paid $321 billion since 2022, saying the figure was $209 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s 9 October diesel deal and 60-day sanctions pause drew criticism from Kyiv and Brussels. Audit findings suggest the EU will likely miss its end-2026 deadline to ban Russian LNG amid winter storage pressures. The dependency persists.

Deadly shooting near Paris is a 'racist terrorist attack', Macron says

BBC | Paul Kirby and Jacob Phillips

French President Emmanuel Macron has labelled a gun attack in a Parisian suburb that killed one person and injured five others a racist terrorist attack. He described it as a turning point, the first random racial killing of this kind in the Republic. The attacker opened fire from a car over some 15 minutes in Trappes and then La Verrière.

People of migrant origin appeared to be targeted. Three of the injured, including a 12-year-old girl, remain in a serious condition. The girl suffered eight gunshot wounds; her mother said she had been wearing a headscarf. The National Anti-Terrorist Prosecutor’s Office is treating the case as murder in connection with a terrorist enterprise and is examining possible conspiracy with a terrorist group. The suspect, named in media as Kevin T, is 39, had four previous convictions that were automatically expunged, was known to police but not to intelligence services, and was not on the list of individuals considered a serious security threat. He used an older-style semi-automatic weapon reported as dating back to the Second World War and classed as a Category A weapon. A member of his immediate family circle was also taken into custody. The mayor of Trappes said the gunman fired randomly with the intent of causing as many casualties as possible.

Russia’s Attritional Theory of Victory in Ukraine

Parameters | Tewfik Hamel

Russia no longer requires the total military defeat of Ukraine to claim a politically usable success. Moscow can treat a negotiated freeze, forced neutrality, durable limits on Ukrainian military sovereignty or weakened transatlantic cohesion as victory if the outcome confirms its strategic depth and veto rights over Europe’s security architecture.

The initial special military operation sought rapid political effects through multi-axis thrusts and a decapitation effort against Kyiv. That approach failed. The war then shifted to slower, industrial attrition tied to Russian state endurance and the durability of Western support. Russian strategic culture supplies the frame of great-power identity and buffer zones. The updated theory of victory relies on coercive attrition, force preservation, long-range strikes and exploitation of Western political variation. Putin’s 14 June 2024 statement conditioned a ceasefire on Ukrainian withdrawal from the four claimed regions and renunciation of NATO membership. By 2025 Russian forces advanced only tens of meters per day while sustaining nearly 1.2 million casualties since February 2022, yet still converted persistent pressure into cumulative political advantage. Operational performance has often been poor relative to resources consumed; the strategic adaptation has not abandoned the original political aims.

It’s terrifying: Ukraine and Europe on edge as Trump sides with Putin

Euronews | Jorge Liboreiro, Sasha Vakulina & Shona Murray

Donald Trump’s apparent alignment with Vladimir Putin has intensified Ukrainian and European fears that Washington could pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement favourable to Moscow. Reported restrictions on Starlink, delays in American weapons deliveries and interruptions to intelligence-sharing have raised concerns about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. European leaders are trying to restore momentum in peace negotiations.

The dispute extends beyond diplomatic rhetoric to the military support on which Ukraine depends. A November 2025 US-backed 28-point proposal reportedly called for territorial concessions, limits on Ukraine’s armed forces and permanent renunciation of NATO membership. Kyiv has also sought permission to manufacture Patriot interceptors domestically, but no final licensing agreement had been confirmed. Washington denies imposing restrictions for political reasons. European governments are pursuing simultaneous support for Ukraine, pressure on Russia and engagement with the United States. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb organised talks in Oslo as tensions rose. The central uncertainty remains whether negotiations can progress without weakening Ukraine’s defences or diminishing Europe’s influence over the terms of a settlement.

Will Europe’s Protests Mark a Turning Point?

Council on Foreign Relations | Michael Froman

France’s protests have exposed mounting economic and political pressures ahead of the April 2027 election, raising concerns about a wider European crisis. Young demonstrators face an economy marked by weak growth, affordability pressures and youth unemployment, while public spending commitments constrain the government’s choices. The protests reflect deeper tensions over the distribution of public resources.

Michael Froman links these domestic pressures to rising borrowing costs, public debt and competing demands for social spending and defence investment. France has committed to doubling defence spending from 2017 levels by next year, amid pressure from Moscow and Washington. The source places these difficulties alongside unrest in Italy and Belgium and economic pressures facing the United Kingdom. It also describes a changing US approach to Russia and worsening US-Ukraine relations as challenges for European security. European rearmament will take years to replace reduced American support, leaving the continent exposed to continuing dependencies. Froman questions whether political leaders can pursue economic reforms, consolidate the military-industrial base and strengthen European cooperation while managing domestic opposition.

A dangerous winter of revolt is coming for Europe Primary Blogger label: Europe Secondary Blogger label: Economic Meta description: Europe's cost-of-living crisis is driving protests across borders, pressuring governments as energy costs rise and national elections approach. Source URL: [https://www.politico.eu/article/a-dangerous-winter-of-revolt-is-coming-for-europe/](https://www.politico.eu/article/a-dangerous-winter-of-revolt-is-coming-for-europe/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

POLITICO | MARION SOLLETTY, AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES, MARTINA SAPIO and ALICE TAYLOR

France's cost-of-living protests are spreading amid rising rents and energy prices, stagnant growth and higher borrowing costs across Europe. In Paris and Rome, authorities are deploying additional security forces as demonstrations, school blockades and supply-chain disruptions expose mounting public anger. The unrest comes as governments face limited fiscal room to cushion households and elections approach in several countries.

Housing affordability has become a prominent grievance in Spain and Portugal, while students, teachers and workers are protesting over education funding, wages and living costs in Greece, Italy, Albania and Germany. The report links these pressures to weakening confidence in political institutions and growing opportunities for nationalist-populist parties. Social media is helping protest messages cross borders, with Visibrain recording more than 2.2 million tweets about the French protests on Saturday, three times the peak volume during the Yellow Vests crisis in late 2018. Governments are also concerned about online content glorifying violence. Falling temperatures and expiring energy-price protections could intensify household pressures, particularly in Germany, where reported gas reserves are historically low. The coming winter therefore presents a test of governments' ability to contain unrest while addressing persistent affordability problems.

Throttling Starlink Is a Disaster for Ukraine and the United States

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Max Bergmann

Ukraine’s access to SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield services has reportedly been disrupted, impairing frontline communications and drone operations as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure intensify. The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Max Bergmann warns that the restrictions could harm Ukrainian defences and damage confidence in US technology and security commitments. The immediate effects extend to civilian warning systems.

The disruption follows worsening relations between Washington and Kyiv over Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and proposed peace terms. Bergmann links the reported service limitations to wider concerns about American reliability, although the Trump administration denies restricting access. Ukraine continues to depend on US intelligence, satellite communications and Patriot air-defence systems, despite Europe assuming a greater share of its financial and military support. The author argues that restricting already-contracted services differs from withholding new aid. He warns that prolonged disruption could accelerate European efforts to develop alternatives, reduce reliance on American technology and weaken confidence in NATO commitments. The dispute therefore carries consequences beyond Ukraine’s battlefield communications, potentially affecting US defence exports and technology businesses.

AI as the next political divide

Comment is Freed | Matthew Price, Patrick Flynn, Cora Fagan

Polling organization Focaldata surveyed 3,851 respondents across the United Kingdom and United States to assess public attitudes toward artificial intelligence. Exactly 37% of participants in both nations support AI development, matching the proportion opposed, while demographic patterns reveal higher acceptance among millennials, university graduates, and higher earners. AI adoption remains culturally contested.

Despite identical overall public sentiment, political alignment sharply diverges between the two countries. In the US, AI has emerged as a deeply partisan issue embedded within culture-war rhetoric ahead of upcoming midterm elections. Conversely, British political parties have not yet polarized along similar partisan lines over AI policy. However, localized opposition to infrastructure projects, such as protests against a proposed data centre at the Truman Brewery on Brick Lane in London, suggests emerging grassroots friction. This divide highlights how technological expansion intersects with broader electoral dynamics and infrastructure planning across Western democracies.

Containing Escalation in the Black Sea

Carnegie Europe | Dimitar Bechev

Russian drone strikes hit the Comoros-flagged tanker Yara J in Romanian territorial waters near Sulina on 14 October 2026, marking a direct spillover of Moscow's maritime interdiction campaign into sovereign NATO domain. The attack follows a broader surge in Black Sea sabotage that killed or left missing 27 crew members across seven vessel strikes along EU shorelines during October.

Moscow is capitalizing on Ukraine's restricted early-warning intelligence feeds and depleted interceptor stockpiles following recent U.S. restrictions to systematically choke grain exports from Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi. Sub-threshold hybrid operations also target critical infrastructure inland. Romanian F-16 fighter aircraft subsequently shot down two invading Russian drones over national territory. Consequently, Bucharest and Sofia are appealing to the North Atlantic Council to bolster NATO maritime domain awareness, air policing, and trilateral mine-clearing patrols with Turkey, attempting to contain Black Sea escalation without formally triggering Article 4 consultations.

Europe Is Asking the Wrong Question About Russia’s Hybrid War

Foreign Policy | Beniamino Irdi

Russia escalated its kinetic sabotage operations across Europe in late 2026, using explosive-laden drones against a Ukraine-bound cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport and striking a rail line at Yahodyn shortly after former European leaders departed. Moscow's increasingly overt actions—including firing flares at a Danish military helicopter over the Baltic—deliberately test Western political cohesion while eroding plausible deniability.

This shift reflects a strategy to weaken European public support for Ukraine by remaining just below NATO Article 5 intervention thresholds. Former Munich Security Conference chair Wolfgang Ischinger and Estonian intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin argue these acts constitute open warfare or state-sponsored terrorism. Response thresholds remain political. Consequently, European debate over terminology ignores the core challenge of imposing predictable costs through energy sanctions, asset seizures, and accelerated military aid. A unified deterrence doctrine remains essential to prevent potential Russian probes against vulnerable Baltic territory.

Unpacking MI5’s Warning on a New Era of Security Threats

Council on Foreign Relations | Farah Pandith, Ezra Hess

Sir Ken McCallum, Director General of MI5, delivered his annual threat update at Thames House, warning that artificial intelligence, state-sponsored sabotage, and online radicalisation are driving a dangerous new national security era. Bad actors now exploit generative algorithms to produce targeted propaganda, exemplified by an artificial intelligence news anchor broadcast by Islamic State affiliates following the 2024 Moscow concert hall attack.

Intelligence agencies face mounting operational pressures as radicalisation skews dramatically toward adolescents. MI5 recently investigated a thirteen-year-old suspect. Countering these evolving threats requires systemic, technological, and societal resilience across public and private sectors. Security measures alone remain insufficient. While the United Kingdom established a dedicated AI Threat Assessment Centre, official responses understate algorithmic radicalisation dynamics and broader societal polarisation. Official statistics recorded a 7 percent increase in hate crimes across England and Wales in the year ending March 2026. Addressing these core vulnerabilities demands expanded community infrastructure and early intervention frameworks.

France’s riots: revolution without utopia

Engelsberg Ideas | Muriel Zagha

Widespread civil unrest ignited across France in October 2026, triggering severe violence, arson, and direct confrontations with riot police. High school pupils initially struck over dilapidated facilities in Créteil and Saint-Denis before La France Insoumise parliamentarians coordinated digital outreach to amplify the blockades nationally. Political coordination quickly lost control to unsanctioned violence.

Anonymous agitators infiltrated secondary campuses and municipal targets, causing €54 million in structural damages at Nantes's Lycée Nelson Mandela and orchestrating physical assaults against headteachers and officers in Marseille and Belfort. Unlike historical revolts from La Grande Jacquerie in 1358 or May 68, the unrest lacks unified political demands or utopian ideals. Analysts Jérôme Fourquet and Ruben Rabinovitch describe this transition as a profound civilisational regression driven by acute cultural fragmentation. Direct state intervention remains constrained as political parties struggle to navigate digital coordination channels and decentralized youth mobilisations across French urban peripheries.

Why the United States Needs Europe in Order to Win the Technology Race

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Federico Steinberg, Riccardo Bosticco

The United States and European Union face a deepening technological rift as aggressive American policies push European decision-makers to pursue digital sovereignty and hedge towards Chinese supply chains. Washington's "AI Action Plan" aims for global technology dominance through exported AI stacks, yet extraterritorial laws like the CLOUD Act trigger intense European security concerns.

Supranational authority in Brussels has responded by coordinating legislative countermeasures including the Tech Sovereignty Package, Chips Act 2.0, and Cloud and AI Development Act. Autonomy carries immense costs. Experts estimate building an independent European technology stack requires €3.6 trillion, while U.S. cloud providers presently hold over 80 percent of Europe's market. Nonetheless, European leaders are diversifying partnerships and curbing reliance on American platforms such as Microsoft Teams and Zoom. Major U.S. technology stacks remain co-dependent on European coordination and critical hardware components supplied by ASML, TRUMPF, and ZEISS. Unilateral U.S. authority risks fracturing this transatlantic alliance, undermining mutual security and market leadership across global technology supply chains.

Katya Adler: France divided over who to blame for riots and what to learn from them

BBC News | Katya Adler

French authorities face intensifying civil unrest after nationwide demonstrations over living costs deteriorated into widespread violence and opportunistic looting across multiple cities. Intelligence reports cited by French media indicate radical left-wing groups, including elements linked to La France Insoumise, coordinated tactics alongside student protesters. This social volatility reflects deep-seated economic discontent and dwindling public trust in democratic institutions across Europe.

Over 3,000 businesses suffered looting during the clashes. In response, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal advocated temporary social media blackouts to disrupt algorithm-driven mobilization and digital recruitment networks. The widespread unrest has triggered fierce political recriminations six months ahead of the French presidential election, where opposition figures like Marine Le Pen are exploiting security lapses to undermine President Emmanuel Macron's centrist administration. Consequently, state security services face urgent pressure to overhaul public-order policing tactics while managing encrypted digital platforms that accelerate decentralized urban disorder.

Russia Has Moved Beyond Hybrid War: Why Washington Needs a Clearer Response

Defense One | Nikkie Lyubarsky

Russia’s campaign against Western countries is becoming more overt and kinetic, according to Nikkie Lyubarsky, who argues that the familiar label “hybrid war” no longer captures the scale or character of recent operations. Drone incidents in Europe and an alleged Russian intelligence-linked plot in the United States illustrate the widening security concerns described in the article.

Lyubarsky argues that Moscow increasingly accepts the loss of plausible deniability when intimidation, intelligence gathering and pressure on Western support for Ukraine matter more. European states have begun responding more directly to aerial threats, while Washington’s approach appears less consistent. The article points to mixed signals from US officials on criminal allegations, diplomatic engagement and sanctions policy. It argues that this uncertainty can weaken deterrent messaging and leave agencies without a clear mandate. The author calls for senior US leadership to define the threat more clearly and communicate credible limits. The account presents a policy argument based on reported incidents and allegations; it does not establish that every cited event was directed by the Kremlin.

Putin Makes Nuclear Threats Over Kaliningrad

Jamestown Foundation | Vadim Shtepa

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Foreign Ministry issued nuclear threats against NATO in September and October 2026, alleging Alliance exercises threaten to isolate the Kaliningrad exclave. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte rejected the claims, reaffirming the Alliance's defensive posture against Kremlin rhetoric. Moscow transformed the former East Prussian region into a fortified military outpost housing nuclear-capable Iskander-M missile systems permanently since 2018.

Russian access concerns focus heavily on the Suwałki Gap. Control of this 40-mile corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus along the Polish-Lithuanian border would sever land links between the Baltic states and the European Union. Despite Moscow's claims of Western economic blockades, Lithuania permits rail transit, while Russia's domestic civilian economy struggles under military spending pressures. The Kremlin uses external crisis narratives to obscure internal political suppression, including the 2001 outlawing of regional political parties and rising local anti-war dissent within the exclave.

A viable path to peace in Ukraine

Asia Times | Jeffrey D. Sachs

Columbia University Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs proposed a single-package peace framework for the war in Ukraine to be adopted by the United Nations Security Council under Chapter VII. Guaranteed jointly by the five permanent members of the Security Council, the proposal mandates Ukraine adopt permanent constitutional neutrality modeled on Austria's 1955 law while rescinding NATO's 2008 Bucharest expansion pledge.

To enforce this geopolitical compromise, an armistice line would freeze current holdings, triggering reciprocal territorial withdrawals, including Ukrainian forces exiting Donetsk and Russian troops leaving Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Sanctions would be lifted during 2027. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe would monitor demilitarized buffer zones, while the European Investment Bank administers a multilateral reconstruction fund supported by Russia and Western states. Ratification by the Verkhovna Rada and the Russian Federal Assembly would permanently conclude hostilities, restoring European energy transit, free navigation in the Black Sea, and intermediate-range missile moratoria.

NATO has a theory of victory – the EU needs one for Russia’s unconventional war on Europe

International Institute for Strategic Studies | Charlie Edwards

NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich outlined a military theory of victory in Warsaw on 12 October 2026, prompting demands for a corresponding European Union strategy against ongoing Russian unconventional operations. Europe faces persistent physical sabotage, cyber attacks, and undersea cable disruptions conducted by disposable proxies recruited via social media and cryptocurrency payments.

Although the European Union possesses extensive legal instruments, its response remains slow, highlighted by delayed sanctions and pending counter-drone initiatives. The proposed European framework centers on two primary objectives, pursuing hostile networks through joint investigation teams coordinated by Eurojust and Europol while protecting critical supply chains and essential infrastructure. Enhanced resilience directives and synchronized national laws are necessary to counter state-sponsored sabotage effectively and prevent the degradation of vital services supporting Ukraine.