*** Decommissioning of INS Viraat

By Danvir Singh

25 Oct , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/decommissioning-of-ins-viraat/

As the glorious chapter in the Indian Navy’s history draws to a close, the decommissioning of INS Viraat is a symptom of metamorphism the Indian navy is undergoing.

INS Viraat, originally commissioned into Royal Navy as HMS Hermes in 1959, had served for 27 years before joining the Indian Navy on 12 May 1987. She served as the flag ship of Royal Navy’s task force during Falkland Island campaign in 1982. INS Viraat thus has a distinction of being the oldest serving aircraft carrier in the world spanning over 57 years.

INS Viraat arrived at Kochi on July 24, from Mumbai under its own propulsion: The Final Voyage. Here the warship will be stripped of its weaponry, radars and propulsion systems, before being towed back to Mumbai for the decommissioning ceremony in October, this year end.

Indian Navy aspires to be a three aircraft carrier based blue water navy by 2025. INS Vikrant, a 40,000 tonnes aircraft carrier is likely to join the Eastern Naval Command by 2018. And INS Vishal, a 65000 tonnes carrier likely to be a nuclear powered supercarrier that could join the force by 2025.

Till such time the Indian Navy will have to continue being a single carrier force. INS Vikramaditya that joined the navy in 2013 shall be its Flag Ship. She will carry out this arduous task of domination of Oceans, till the turn of the decade.

** Sharif Vs Sharif: Who Will Win In Pakistan? – Analysis

By Jai Kumar Verma* 
OCTOBER 25, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/25102016-sharif-vs-sharif-who-will-win-in-pakistan-analysis/

Recently an article of Cyril Almeida published in Pakistan’s reputed English daily Dawn has exposed the bitterness between the political leadership and the army. Almeida, a fearless journalist, a rare commodity in Pakistan, wrote in the article that the civilian government has warned that Pakistan is being isolated in the world arena because of its position on terrorism. The article also revealed that Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, a younger brother of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, pointed out that whenever security agencies took actions against the terror groups or its leaders, security agencies (meaning Inter Services Intelligence-ISI) protected the terrorists. It was also reported that hot words were exchanged between ISI chief and Punjab Chief Minister.

Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry reportedly revealed at the meeting (October 4) that several countries clearly have told Pakistan that action should be taken against Hafiz Saeed, Masood Azhar and terrorist outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Haqqani network and investigation about the attack on Pathankot Airbase must be completed. China also reportedly suggested to its “all-weather friend” that it should change its policies towards terrorism.

The Pakistan army, which claims itself as the savior of the country, directly ruled the nation for more than 33 years, with the remaining years witnessing a façade of democratic government but the Chief of Army Staff remained the most powerful individual in the state and the army remained the de-facto ruler. The dominant political leaders like Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto were killed while Nawaz Sharif in his first tenure was overthrown and evicted from the country.

General Raheel Sharif was selected as Chief of Army Staff by Nawaz Sharif and although he has not overthrown him so far but snatched all the powers pertaining to foreign policy towards important countries like India, Afghanistan, United States and also grabbed vital security related matters.

India: Retribution In Meghalaya – Analysis

By Nijeesh N.*
OCTOBER 25, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/25102016-india-retribution-in-meghalaya-analysis/

On October 17, 2016, a large group of heavily armed Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants, allegedly led by its ‘commander-in-chief (C-in-C)’ Sohan D. Shira, shot dead the outfit’s former ‘finance secretary’, Rakkam D. Shira aka Bilding Ch Marak aka Rikchie at his residence near Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District. Rakkam, a surrendered militant, was confined inside the Goeragre camp in West Garo Hills District under a rehabilitation process, and was killed shortly after he visited his house in the afternoon. Rakkam, along with the entire ‘finance wing’ of the outfit had surrendered before the then State Home Minister Roshan Warjri in Shillong on May 9, 2016. According to the District Police, “He (Rakkam) was supposed to be inside the Goeragre camp. He did not inform anyone about his sudden trip to Williamnagar. Even the police were unaware of his visit to his home.” Surrendered GNLA militants are housed in two transit rehabilitation camps located at the Second Meghalaya Police (MLP) Battalion headquarters at Goeragre and Baljek Airport at Jengjal in West Garo Hills District.

In the night of September 20, 2016, a group of GNLA militants killed a former cadre, identified as Tiangsil G. Momin at Rongsakgre in West Garo Hills District. According to reports, more than 20 militants entered the village at night and chased Tiangsil till they caught and executed him. Tiangsil, who was in the fourth batch of recruits in the outfit, had quit GNLA to join A’chik Matgrik Elite Force (AMEF), which was formed by Jack Marak in 2014. Tiangsil, along with other cadres of the new group, had surrendered in December 2015.Tiangsil’s body, which had multiple bullet wounds and a disfigured face, was found in the morning of September 21.In this case also, Police suspect that GNLA ‘chief’ Shira was present at the time of the killing.

In September 2016, through the social media, Sohan D. Shira had made clear his intentions to target leaders and cadres who had abandoned his outfit. He had also announced the formation of an ‘eraser unit’ to target GNLA deserters.No further details about the outfit’s ‘eraser unit’ are available in the open source.

BIMSTEC: Many Potentials, But Slow Realization – Analysis

By Rupak Bhattacharjee* 
OCTOBER 25, 2016

Source Link

The issue of terrorism dominated the proceedings of the recently concluded Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Outreach Summit in Goa. India in its bids to diplomatically isolate Pakistan in the wake of fidayen attack in Uri sought the cooperation of the BIMSTEC members to fight the menace of terrorism. The BIMSTEC leaders extended full support to India’s call and agreed to enhance counter-terrorism cooperation at the regional level.

The Goa summit assumes significance after the cancellation of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit, which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November this year. All the South Asian nations joined India in boycotting the SAARC Summit after Pakistan-based jihadi outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad’s (JeM) attack on Uri army base on September 18, 2016. BIMSTEC, which includes all the SAARC nations barring Afghanistan, Pakistan and Maldives, has filled the void. Unlike SAARC, the BIMSTEC member nations are not having intractable political problems among themselves. During the Goa summit, the member nations agreed on early ratification of the BIMSTEC convention on cooperation in combating international terrorism, transnational organised crime and illicit drug trafficking.

BIMSTEC is a sub-regional grouping comprising seven geographically contiguous-littoral and peripheral South and Southeast Asian nations, namely, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Thailand. The primary objective of BIMSTEC, which acts as a land bridge between SAARC and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is to promote regional cooperation and economic integration in the area around the Bay of Bengal. The BIMSTEC region is home to 22% of the global population with a total gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 2.7 trillion. The priority areas of this regional forum include trade, economic cooperation, connectivity, agriculture, tourism, people-to-people contacts and technical and human resource development. The theme of the Goa outreach summit was “a partnership in opportunities”.

India Should Not Gloat Over Moderate Tactical Success – Analysis

By Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd)*
OCTOBER 25, 2016

Source Link

The last three weeks may not have been historically momentous, as some in the establishment would like us to believe, but certainly India has been in the news, both within and globally, and more for good reasons. The reported surgical strikes conducted by India on September 29, 2016 at seven Pakistani terror-camp locations across the volatile Line of Control (LoC) changed the mood of the nation in one swift master-stroke. That all political parties in India, cutting across party lines, unequivocally feted the Indian Army and the Modi government for this timely initiative to teach a perennially treacherous Pakistan a befitting lesson, showcased to the world Indian unity when confronted with a national challenge.

However, like any succulent dish, happy tidings have a nasty habit of not lingering for long. With the euphoria of India’s ‘macho’ actions against a terror-exporting Pakistan gradually receding, the mood in India’s agitated political environment is back to its not-so-cordial normal.

Electronic media channels, naturally looking for better TRPs, seemed to exacerbate the eternal political divide by pinning down some political parties with awkward and insolent questions on the parties’ sense of nationalism and their degree of support to the government, as if it is a quantifiable commodity.

Most political outfits seem to have walked into the media trap with the ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), chest-thumping themselves as the sole repository of fiery patriotism leaving other political dispensations in the country far behind in self-assessed jingoistic formulations. Anyway, the media does not direct national policies and hence it is time for the nation to leave behind the cacophony of proving one’s patriotism, introspect and seriously plan for the myriad challenges looming ahead.

BIMSTEC: Many potentials, but Slow Realization

By Dr Rupak Bhattacharjee

25 Oct , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/bimstec-many-potentials-but-slow-realization/

The issue of terrorism dominated the proceedings of the recently concluded Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Outreach Summit in Goa. India in its bids to diplomatically isolate Pakistan in the wake of fidayen attack in Uri sought the cooperation of the BIMSTEC members to fight the menace of terrorism. The BIMSTEC leaders extended full support to India’s call and agreed to enhance counter-terrorism cooperation at the regional level. 

The Goa summit assumes significance after the cancellation of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit, which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November this year. All the South Asian nations joined India in boycotting the SAARC Summit after Pakistan-based jihadi outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad’s (JeM) attack on Uri army base on September 18, 2016. BIMSTEC, which includes all the SAARC nations barring Afghanistan, Pakistan and Maldives, has filled the void. Unlike SAARC, the BIMSTEC member nations are not having intractable political problems among themselves. During the Goa summit, the member nations agreed on early ratification of the BIMSTEC convention on cooperation in combating international terrorism, transnational organised crime and illicit drug trafficking.

BIMSTEC is a sub-regional grouping comprising seven geographically contiguous-littoral and peripheral South and Southeast Asian nations, namely, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Thailand. The primary objective of BIMSTEC, which acts as a land bridge between SAARC and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is to promote regional cooperation and economic integration in the area around the Bay of Bengal. The BIMSTEC region is home to 22% of the global population with a total gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 2.7 trillion. The priority areas of this regional forum include trade, economic cooperation, connectivity, agriculture, tourism, people-to-people contacts and technical and human resource development. The theme of the Goa outreach summit was “a partnership in opportunities”.

The Secularism of Olive Green

By Maj Gaurav Arya

25 Oct , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/the-secularism-of-olive-green/

Secularism is the separation of religion and state. Simply put, religion has nothing to do with how a country is ruled. The state itself, at least structurally, is atheist. No one will be discriminated against, on the basis of religion. This is the most widely accepted definition of secularism. 

There are a few other motivated definitions, which border on selectively perpetrated fraud. 

As a soldier, I am absolutely apolitical. I have nothing whatsoever to do with any political party. I do not understand politics, and neither do I wish to. 

But I understand defending the physical and the ideological frontiers of India. I understand it far better than any politician ever will. And the ideology of India is enshrined in its Constitution. 

When we pass out of the academy, we swear an oath not on our holy books but on the Constitution of India. 

“I hereby solemnly swear that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of India, as by law established and that I will, as in duty bound honestly and faithfully, serve in the regular army of the Union of India and go wherever ordered, by land, sea or air, and that I will observe and obey all the commands of the President of the Union of India and the commands of any officer set above me, even to the peril of my life”. 

** Birth of A Boomer: How India Built Its Nuclear Submarine

By Rakesh Krishnan Simha

25 Oct , 2016

Source Link

During the 1971 War, as India’s armoured columns prepared to crash through the Pakistan Army’s defences and thundered down the road to Lahore, the US and British navies made a threatening pincer against India. While the US Seventh Fleet sailed menacingly towards Kolkata, a British flotilla from Madagascar steamed towards Mumbai. It was the timely arrival of the Russian Pacific Fleet – comprising warships and nuclear submarines – that prevented a joint American-British attack on India.

Because of the West’s interference in the war, India could not achieve a key aim – the destruction of Pakistani armour on the western front. The incident impressed upon the Indian political leadership the need for a nuclear submarine fleet to ward of future gunboat diplomacy. As noted by Eric Arnett, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “The history and implications of (nuclear powered submarines) for Indian maritime strategy suggest that the US presence in the Indian Ocean was a stronger motivation for the programme.”

Completing the Triad

Almost 45 years after those dramatic December days, the Indian Navy’s indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant has been declared ready for operations. India is now only one step away from acquiring a second strike capability in the event of a nuclear exchange. The final phase involves the arming of the Arihant’s torpedo tubes with either the 700 km range K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or the 3500 km K-4. After nuclear warheads are mated to these missiles, India will finally be able to complete its nuclear triad, giving the country’s war planners multiple options if it comes to a nuclear confrontation.

A nuclear triad refers to the three components of atomic weapons delivery: strategic bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and SLBMs. The third leg of this triad is of great significance to India. If a first strike cripples the nuclear missile force as well as the air force, then the INS Arihant can launch retaliatory strikes that will render the attacking country unfit for human life.

JNU not at the Cost of Country

By RSN Singh

24 Oct , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/jnu-not-at-the-cost-of-country/

They danced and partied all night when about 75 CRPF personnel were killed by Maoists in Chattisgarh. They beat up two army officers when they objected to anti-India themes by Pakistani poets invited specially to the campus. They indulged in religious sloganeering while calling for splintering of India. They called the Indian Army an army of rapists. They objected to calling their institution ‘temple of learning’ and their teachers being referred as ’gurus.’ In that they were right– many of their teachers are not gurus but patrons and peddlers of anti-India isms, i.e. who sell Jihad and Maoism, both imported ideologies, both with terrorist underpinnings and both having external benefactors, Pakistan and China respectively. The institution is Jawaharlal University (JNU).

So, bereft of all reverence for gurus and institutions , it was not surprising at all that the students held hostage their Vice Chancellor and teachers and other campus officials, not allowing any access even to their wives on’ Karva Chauth’ day. Violence and intimidation was implicit in the entire campaign. It was a criminal act. They had the rudimentary literacy and political subversion to couch a hostage situation as a ‘democratic protest.’ In fact, the leader of these semi-literates called Indian army jawans illiterates, little aware that the latter have far ‘deeper cognitive education’, character and commitment to country.

Not surprising at all that the students held hostage their Vice Chancellor and teachers and other campus officials, not allowing any access even to their wives on’ Karva Chauth’ day. Violence and intimidation was implicit in the entire campaign.

Bracing Communities For Returning Foreign Fighters – Analysis

By Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman*

OCTOBER 25, 2016

Source Link

The ongoing offensive by the Iraqi-led coalition forces to liberate Mosul from ISIS’s reign is meeting intense resistance from ISIS fighters. Driven by its depraved objectives that are intrinsically rooted in distorted interpretations of a perpetual cosmic war between good and evil as prophesised in Islamic eschatology and the strategic imperative to maintain its currency in the global jihadist arena, ISIS will not be easily vanquished.

ISIS – an enduring threat

Even as military setbacks in the Middle East chip away at its sacrosanct image as a functioning pseudo-state, its likely shift to an insurgency model as a response to territorial loses, the global reach of its sophisticated propaganda, and the flow of its foreign fighters are among the factors that will make it an enduring threat actor in the Middle East and the global jihadist arena. A commentary titled ‘After the Battle for Mosul, Get Ready for the Islamic State to Go Underground’ on the RAND blog dated 18 Oct 2016 essentially forewarned that ISIS could mirror Al-Qaeda in maintaining its resilience by morphing into a truly covert terrorist organisation.

While coalition forces look forward to the liberation of Mosul as a strategic and near term victory, countries in the non-conflict zones who are members of the US-led global coalition to counter ISIL – another important theatre in countering violent extremism – have expressed concerns over the increasingly imminent and long term threats from returning foreign fighters whose outflow from the Syria/Iraq might be hastened by the impending collapse of ISIS’s caliphate.

A Wall Street Journal article titled ‘Mosul Offensive Highlights Risk of Fighters Fleeing to Europe’ on 18 October 2016 noted that the Europol had urged European states to be ready to face the long struggle against returning fighters as they flee from the Mosul offensive. In East Asia, some Southeast Asian countries have expressed similar concerns over the returning fighters. The Australian foreign minister also said that steps are being taken to detect Australian fighters who may seek to return home.

Returning foreign fighters – perpetuating the terrorist threat

India-Pakistan: Fragmenting Ceasefire In J&K – Analysis

By Ajit Kumar Singh*
OCTOBER 25, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/25102016-india-pakistan-fragmenting-ceasefire-in-jk-analysis/

On October 23, 2016, the Pakistan Rangers violated the November 2003 cease-fire agreement (CFA), carrying out a sniper attack at an Indian post in the R. S. Pura sector of Jammu District in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), injuring a Border Security Force (BSF) constable. The constable succumbed to his injuries later in the night.

At least seven Pakistan Rangers were reportedly killed in cross border firing by the BSF of India on October 21, 2016, in addition to one terrorist. According to reports, the Pakistan Rangers violating the CFA, carried out a sniper attack at an Indian post in the Hira Nagar area of Kathua District, injuring a BSF constable. A BSF released stated, “In a befitting reply to a sniper attack of Pak Rangers at 9:35 this morning in Hira Nagar Sector of Jammu, BSF launched an offensive. During intermittent firing of small arms and area weapons one terrorist and seven Rangers were shot dead.” The Rangers had violated the CFA to help terrorists infiltrate from the Pakistani side into India, as has been the established practice over years. BSF spokesman Shubhendu Bhardwaj thus disclosed, “There was an infiltration attempt and sniper fire. We retaliated. The bodies are on the other side of the border.” The injured BSF trooper died later, on October 22.

In the intervening night of October 19 and 20, 2016, Indian troopers foiled an infiltration attempt by terrorists in the Hira Nagar area of Kathua District. While one terrorist was killed the rest managed to escape back to Pakistan. Pakistan Rangers provided cover fire to the failed infiltrators.

On October 16, 2016, a soldier of the Indian Army was reportedly shot dead by a sniper from Pakistan. The incident occurred at a forward Indian post along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Naushera Sector of the Rajouri District. The Indian Army responded, though there was no report of any casualties on the other side.

Crackdown Not Enough: Bangladesh Needs to Neutralize Sources Of Militant Support – Analysis

By S. Binodkumar Singh* 

OCTOBER 25, 2016

Source link

On October 8, 2016, in a series of anti-militancy crackdowns, 12 Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) militants were killed in Gazipur, Tangail and Dhaka districts. Seven of them were killed in Harinal area under Gazipur city of Gazipur district in an operation codenamed ‘Operation Spate 8’ conducted jointly by the Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit, Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team and Gazipur police. Police recovered three small arms and locally-made sharp weapons from the site. Two others were killed during an operation by Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) at a JMB den in Lebubagan area of Gazipur district. One AK 22 rifle, bomb making materials, one laptop, a locally-made sharp weapon and some bullets were recovered from the den. In another raid carried out by RAB, two other militants were killed in a three-storey building in Mirzamath area of Tangail town in Tangail district. One pistol, one revolver, 11 sharp weapons, 12 bullets, two laptops and BDT 64,362 were recovered from the ground floor of the flat. Separately, in Dhaka district, Nazmul Haque alias Abdur Rahman, the financier of JMB died after he jumped off from his flat in the fourth floor to flee during a raid by RAB in Savar upazila (sub-district). RAB recovered a firearm, ammunition, sharp weapons, a mobile jammer and a huge number of Jihadi books from his flat.

On September 11, 2016, one JMB militant was killed and three others were injured during a police raid at a house in Lalbagh area of capital Dhaka city. During the raid, five Policemen were also injured as the militants attacked them with sharp weapons.

On September 2, 2016, Murad alias Jahangir Alam alias Omar alias Major Shaheb’, the ‘military commander’ of JMB was killed during a raid in Dhaka city’s Mirpur area. Before being shot dead, Murad indiscriminately stabbed three Policemen trying to capture him.

On August 29, 2016, Khaled Hasan alias Badar Mama (30), the ‘military commander’ of the northern region of JMB and Ripon alias Golam Tareque alias Abu Ibrahim (29), the ‘chief of Ansar Rajshahi’, a splinter group of JMB were killed in a gunfight with Police in Bogra district. Two constables Babul Akhtar and Abdul Mottalleb suffered injuries in the incident. A foreign-made pistol, four bullets, two homemade bombs, bomb-making materials and a knife were also recovered from the spot.

China’s Dam Building Spree In Tibet: Strategic Implications And India’s Options – Analysis

By G G Dwivedi* 
OCTOBER 25, 2016

Source Link

Recent reports have pointed to China blocking the Xiabuqu tributary of the Yarlung Zangpo River (Tibetan name for Brahmaputra) for a dam project. The 195-km long Xiabuqu originates at Bainang and joins the Brahmaputra at Xigaze, close to Sikkim. The construction of the dam as part of the Lalho hydroelectric project at Xigaze reportedly began in June 2014 and is expected to be completed by 2019.

The project has been viewed with concern in India, which is a lower riparian state. The Yarlung Zangpo flows 1625 kms in Tibet before entering Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang. Further down, after confluence with the Dibang and Lohit, it is known as the Brahmaputra. In Bangladesh, it merges with the Ganga and empties into the Bay of Bengal.

China has tried to allay India’s apprehensions by stating that the project is not designed to hold water. It further claims that the Xiabuqu’s mean discharge volume is barely 0.02 per cent of the Brahmaputra’s average annual trans- boundary discharge, which latter is estimated at 142.37 cubic km. Earlier, Beijing had vehemently denied undertaking any dam construction activities on the Brahmaputra in Tibet. It was only in 2010 that the then Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi formally acknowledged the construction of the Zangmu dam.

China’s closed door political system is shrouded in secrecy, leading to trust deficit. In the absence of an effective water sharing mechanism, the construction of the dam on the Xiabuqu could emerge as another irritant between India and China. Beijing’s elaborate plans to harness the waters of the rivers in Tibet have serious strategic and socio-economic implications for India.

China’s Grand Design

The Battles Within The Battle To Re-Take Mosul – OpEd

BY KAVEH L. AFRASIABI 

OCTOBER 25, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/25102016-the-battles-within-the-battle-to-re-take-mosul-oped/

The battle to retake Iraq’s second largest city from the ISIS terrorists has entered its second week and may take several more weeks before the anti-ISIS coalition forces can claim decisive victory and gain control of the entire city and its surrounding enclaves. But, the fog of war has not veiled the multiple vested interests that reflect a deeply-divided coalition that is barely glued together over common enmity vis-à-vis ISIS (Daesh) and, in fact, is indicative of three simultaneous battles.

First, the anti-ISIS battle that has brought together the various units of Iraqi army, militias, Kurds, Iranian military advisers, US forces and, increasingly, Turkish involvement irrespective of the loud objections of the Iraqi government: This battle’s stated aim is to restore Baghdad’s authority over Mosul and thus achieve a significant progress in terms of the country’s ruptured sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Second, there is ‘battle within the battle’ involving the major stakeholders in the theater of conflict, vying with each other for zones of influence, including the Kurds, backed by the US, whose interests are hardly congruent with the interests of the central government in Baghdad. The US, for its part, is clearly seeking to emerge from the battle of Mosul with a bigger influence in Iraq (as well as neighboring Syria), which might explain the sudden appearance of US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter in Iraq last week, shoring up US’s direct military role in the battle of Mosul and, simultaneously, putting a seal of approval on Turkey’s unwanted (from Baghdad’s point of view) quest to have a growing hand in the battle.

Use Of Water As A Strategic Weapon – Analysis

BY DR. RAJARAM PANDA 

OCTOBER 25, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/25102016-use-of-water-as-a-strategic-weapon-analysis/

While the border dispute between India and China remains unresolved, and political differences widen on bilateral as well as regional issues, water has emerged as yet another issue where differences are widening with the potential of conflict in the future. India is worried about China’s dam projects on the Brahmaputra river and both countries are asserting to defend their national interests and claims in controlling the water as it flows from the Tibetan plateau to the riparian states downstream in India and Bangladesh before joining the Bay of Bengal.

No sooner than China successfully blocked India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group and equating India with Pakistan’s claim for the same, India announced plans to assert its rights within the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan. China retaliated within days of India’s announcement saying that it was building a dam on a tributary of the Brahmaputra (known as Yarlung Zangbo (Tsangpo) in Tibet). It soon transpired that China’s announcement on 1 October of the blockade of Xiabuqu river in Tibet is part of the construction of its “most expensive hydel project”. As a lower riparian state, India will be directly affected.

India sees red in China’s dam building overdrive. India is concerned because there are no bilateral or multilateral treaties on the water. Since Brahmaputra which originates from the Angsi glacier in western Tibet and flows through the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, building a dam on the river could help it assert claim over the state.

Understanding Battle Of Mosul And Impending ‘Demise’ Of Islamic State – Analysis

By Kabir Taneja* 
OCTOBER 24, 2016

Source Link

More than seven million Indians call the greater Middle East region their home. There are more Indians here in New Delhi to worry about than the population of Finland, and the region is possibly one of the most hostile regions on the planet. Yet, our media discourse on the happenings in the Middle East is minimal, knowledge in public forums superficial at best, no Indian media outlet has a single reporter based in the region despite our affinity and progress towards India’s ‘Think West‘ policy.

Over the past few days, the Iraqi army has been preparing for what it believes could be the final showdown between government forces along with the assorted militias that support them, and the Islamic State (ISIS). The city of Mosul, about 400 km north of the capital Baghdad, and closer to the strongholds of Kurdish regions of the country are being prepared for the final assault to dismantle ISIS. It is believed the outcome of this operation could take anywhere between weeks and months, but as we have seen in the past, specifically in Afghanistan, years is also not an implausible scenario. “ISIS has dug in deep,” people escaping Mosul were quoted as saying. “This will take a long time. These guys are mostly Iraqis and they will not give up. People on this side of the river (Tigris) cannot run away to Anbar. They will have to fight,” said another.

Over the past few months, ISIS has lost large swathes of the territories it so easily took control of during the year of 2014, when it steamrolled through the lands and captured territory and people with gusto. ISIS declared Mosul as the seat of its supposed ‘caliphate’, from where the leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his council run their operations of terror across the region and beyond. Whilst it is true that ISIS has lost a lot of territory over the past few months, many foreign fighters have abandoned its ranks and it is struggling to maintain the enigma it had created around the world, the fact remains that the organisation will probably never be completely dismantled. Like Al Qaeda in the post 9/11 world, ISIS may also disintegrate and seep into the various sectarian cracks of the Middle East as it continues to maintain and promote its vast propaganda machinery, both physically and via the Internet.

Budget Cuts Deepen Information Gulf Between Urban And Rural Russia – OpEd

BY PAUL GOBLE 

OCTOBER 25, 2016

Source Link

Information and Mass Communications Minister Nikolay Nikiforob says that budgetary cutbacks mean that the government will close almost all public access Internet points in Russia by the end of this year, a decision that will hit Russians in small towns and villages far harder than those in cities.

That is because most of the public access Internet points now in operation are in villages and small towns where few individuals as yet have their own access to email and the web. Now, even fewer of these people will, and that in turn means that they will be even more dependent on state television and the postal service than they were before (tass.ru/ekonomika/3728315).

Nikiforov says that these points will “stop work almost everywhere,” although he insisted that decisions about which to shut would be taken on a case by case basis. He suggested that such access points would remain “only in the very smallest population points where there are no other means of communication.

The minister suggested that this was not as much a tragedy as many might think because ever more people even in small villages have their own personal access to the Internet. But he acknowledged that the closure of the only way some villagers have to communicate with others outside their home area would have a serious impact on many, including on the post office.

Nikiforov acknowledged as well that this step violates existing law and said that in the coming months, he and his staff would be proposing amendments to bring the law into line with the reality he is creating. He also said that he hoped Rostelkom would invest more, but its spokesman have already indicated that they are not prepared to do so without subsidies.

Can BBIN Work As Antidote To Failures Of SAARC? – Analysis

By Amitava Mukherjee* 
OCTOBER 25, 2016

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As Pakistan is now aiming for a greater South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) with China and the Central Asian states in its fold, the importance of the emerging Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) grouping has become more important for not only Indian diplomatic initiatives but for economic progress of landlocked countries like Nepal and Bhutan. It is better to admit that not much thought was given behind the conceptualization of the SAARC in the mid 1980s and sub-regional initiatives like the BBIN may work as an antidote to much of the maladies that afflict South Asia now.

The core tenor of the BBIN is mainly economic in character but for making it a success India, the largest power in the grouping, will have to iron out much of the security and strategic balance related tensions that still exist between it and the three other countries. With Bhutan it has a lingering tension over the Druk kingdom’s continuing boundary negotiations with China. The Madhesi issue and Kathmandu’s growing relations with Beijing have generated enough mistrust between India and Nepal. Finally a new tension is likely to grow in Indo-Bangladesh relations as Hasina Wazed, the prime minister of Bangladesh, has announced during the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Dhaka that Bangladesh would now upgrade her relationship with Beijing to the level of a strategic partnership.

But the BBIN has several tantalizing prospects for all the four nations involved. It has four principal goals: trade, connectivity, transit among the four nations; power generation and investments for water management; mutual trade in energy and power and conversion of national power grids to sub regional power grids; and finally people to people contacts. This sub-region has 190 billion cubic metres(CBM) of natural gas, 900 million tons of coal, hydro electric potential of more than 1,50,000 megawatts, oil reserves of 513 million tons and a 25 percent sub regional forest cover. So mutual cooperation among the nations can lead to substantial social and economic advancement.

Canadian Oil Is Building A Wall And Mexico Is Paying For It – Analysis

By Omar Mawji

OCTOBER 25, 2016

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Historically, Canada and Mexico have both brought significant oil supplies to refiners in the U.S. In 2006, Mexico and Canada were both exporting 1.7 million barrels per day of oil to the US.

Mexico and Canada have been waging a silent battle for market share in the US crude oil refining market. Since 2006, crude oil exports from Canada and Mexico to the US’ largest refining complex in the US Gulf Coast (Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts 3 or “PADD 3” or “Gulf Coast”) have changed dramatically.

A Crude History: Canada vs. Mexico

Historically, Canada and Mexico have both brought significant oil supplies to refiners in the U.S. In 2006, Mexico and Canada were both exporting 1.7 million barrels per day of oil to the US; however, the Mexican and Canadian crude oil market share was fairly segregated – Mexico dominated the Gulf Coast and Canada dominated the US Midwest (“PADD 2”).

Russia has transformed state-sponsored hackers known as Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear from internet spies to political tools

James Marson, Sam Schechner, and Alan Cullison

October 21, 2016

Russian Hackers Evolve to Serve the Kremlin

With the hacking of Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee, U.S. officials say Russia has unleashed a strengthened cyberwarfare weapon to sow uncertainty about the U.S. democratic process.

In doing so, Russia has transformed state-sponsored hackers known as Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear from internet spies to political tools with the power to target the country’s adversaries, according to U.S. officials and cybersecurity experts.

The attacks are the harder side of parallel campaigns in the Kremlin’s English-language media, which broadcast negative news about Western institutions and alliances and focus on issues that demonstrate or stoke instability in the West,such as Brexit. Moscow seeks particularly to weaken the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has expanded its defense against Russia.

“The underlying philosophy of a lot of these attacks is about establishing information as a weapon,” said Alexander Klimburg, a cyber expert at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies. “Hacking for them is literally about controlling information.”

President Vladimir Putin denies Russian involvement in the hacking, but in a way that telegraphs glee about the potential chaos being sown in the U.S. democratic process.

NATO And Russia In The Baltic And The North Pole – Analysis

By Giancarlo Elia Valori* 
OCTOBER 24, 2016

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NATO’s strategic response to Ukraine’s annexation by the Russian Federation in March 2014 is currently focused on the forward defense of the Baltic countries, which are increasingly important in Western geostrategic planning and which control from Europe the Arctic zone, the area in which Russia can hit the US interest more easily.

Cleary the Alliance believes that the Baltic countries can be Russia’s next “enlargement”, as happened precisely with Ukraine.

More probably, however, Russia wants to weaken and, indeed, “finlandize” NATO’s Baltic region which, as is also well-known to Russia, is a key point even for the Atlantic interests.

Not to mention the North Pole’s wealth of mining and oil resources, which would really be the economic game changer for the whole Russian system.

And it would also be the Russian solution to replace the Middle East OPEC countries, all with oil wells which are depleting to a greater or lesser extent.

The Russian Arctic region is the area in which approximately 80% of the Far North’s oil is extracted, especially in the Russian autonomous region of Khanty-Mansiysk, in addition to 11 offshore extraction sites in the Barents Sea, 182 in the Kara Sea and a large number (185) in the Russian autonomous region of Nenets.

Hence the Arctic would be the area in which Russia can become the global leader of the oil and gas market.

With specific reference to minerals, in the Russian Arctic area there are large – albeit not yet accurately measured – amounts of copper, gold, nickel, uranium, iron, tungsten and diamonds.

Does NSA support of CYBERCOM blur lines?

By: Mark Pomerleau, 

October 12, 2016 

This is Part III of a four-part series on the underlying issues surrounding the potential split of the NSA and Cyber Command. 

The Title 10 versus Title 50 debate has long surrounded the way intelligence and covert activity is conducted in accordance with the law. A key issue surrounding intelligence and war fighting efforts is the blurring of lines clearly identified in statutes. For example, intelligence organizations are barred from spying domestically on American citizens.

As the discussions of a potential split between the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command continue to swirl, what would an empty-nested NSA, freed from its child organization, CYBERCOM, look like?

Title 10 of the United States Code outlines authorities for the military and war fighting, while Title 50 stipulates the authorities of intelligence community organizations such as the NSA.

In some instances, lines involving military intelligence collection or operations can be easy to blur to the common observer. A former NSA worker told C4ISRNET on condition of anonymity that some NSA personnel became uncomfortable with the militarization of their activity, as the agency is supposed to be independent and equally serve all branches in military and combatant commands. Integrating CYBERCOM distorts this in a way that subverts the mission and doesn’t do favors for CYBERCOM, the source added.

Operation Neptune Spear, the operation to kill Osama bin Laden conducted by members of the now-famed SEAL Team 6, exemplifies the shifting roles within these authorities. While conducted by the military, the operation fell under the command of the CIA and was conducted as a covert operation, allowing plausible deniability by the United States if things went wrong.

What are U.S. officials saying about a pT

his is Part IV of a four-part series on the underlying issues surrounding the potential split of the NSA and Cyber Command. 

A number of lawmakers on Capitol Hill are vehemently opposed to severing the dual-hat position between the director of the National Security Agency and commander of US Cyber Command.

What are the prospects that the NSA and CYBERCOM will split in the final months of President Barack Obama's final term?

“Let me be very clear, I do not believe rushing to separate the dual hat in the final months of an administration is appropriate given the very serious challenges we face in cyberspace and the failure of this administration to develop an effective deterrence policy,” Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee John McCain, R-Ariz., said during a hearing in September. “Therefore, if a decision is prematurely made to separate NSA and Cyber Command I will object to the confirmation of any individual nominated by the president to replace the director of the National Security Agency if that person is not also nominated to be the commander of Cyber Command.”

The Washington Post reported that Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Director of National Intelligence are pushing for the split as to reduce the tension regarding use of resources that are currently shared.

Are Other NSA Leakers Still at Large?

Peter Koop

October 20, 2016

With NSA contractor Martin arrested, other leakers may still be at large

Earlier this month we learned the name of a second person who stole top secret documents from the US National Security Agency (NSA). After Edward Snowden admitted doing so publicly in June 2013, the FBI has now arrested the 51-year old Harold T. Martin III at his home in Maryland.

Martin hoarded lots of classified documents, not only from NSA but also from a number of other military and intelligence agencies. The FBI is still comparing them with those from the recent Shadow Brokers leak and a range of other NSA leaks from the past few years, but given what’s known now, it seems likely that at least one other leaker is still at large.

The house of Harold T. Martin III in Glen Burnie, Maryland

The New York Times reported that when the FBI raided Martin’s house on August 27, they found paper documents and many terabytes of highly classified information, even going back the 1990s. At least six documents were from 2014. It was reported that Martin first took the classified documents on paper, later on CDs and more recently on thumb drives.

The reason why Harold Martin brought home and stored such large numbers of top secret documents isn’t yet clarified. One suggestion is that he may have used them for research for his dissertation about “new methods for remote analysis of heterogeneous & cloud computing architectures”, which he was working on at the University of Maryland.

Documents from multiple agencies

It should be noted that not everything Martin stole comes from NSA. In the official charges there are no names of the agencies where the documents come from, they are only described as highly classified, including ones that are marked as Top Secret and Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI).

Trove of Stolen Data Is Said to Include Top-Secret U.S. Hacking Tools

By SCOTT SHANE, MATT APUZZO and JO BECKER

OCT. 19, 2016

Harold T. Martin III and his wife Deborah Shaw in an undated photo. CreditDeborah Shaw

WASHINGTON — Investigators pursuing what they believe to be the largest case of mishandling classified documents in United States history have found that the huge trove of stolen documents in the possession of aNational Security Agency contractor included top-secret N.S.A. hacking tools that two months ago were offered for sale on the internet.

They have been hunting for electronic clues that could link those cybertools — computer code posted online for auction by an anonymous group calling itself the Shadow Brokers — to the home computers of the contractor, Harold T. Martin III, who was arrested in late August on charges of theft of government property and mishandling of classified information.

But so far, the investigators have been frustrated in their attempt to prove that Mr. Martin deliberately leaked or sold the hacking tools to the Shadow Brokers or, alternatively, that someone hacked into his computer or otherwise took them without his knowledge. While they have found some forensic clues that he might be the source, the evidence is not conclusive, according to a dozen officials who have been involved in or have been briefed on the investigation.

All spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly.

An anonymous hacker group, calling itself the Shadow Brokers, announced in August a sale of computer codes stolen from the National Security Agency.

Cyber Support to Corps and Below: Digital Panacea or Pandora’s Box?

by Michael Klipstein and Michael Senft

October 19, 2016

Michael Klipstein and Michael Senft

The thunder of artillery interrupts the frenzied activity in the Stryker Brigade Tactical Operations Center. Moments before, the video feed from an InstantEye® Unmanned Aerial Vehicle confirmed the presence of a Buk-M3 Target Acquisition Radar (TAR) hidden in a makeshift refugee camp. The courses of action developed during the abbreviated military decision making process to address this threat leaves the Brigade Commander troubled. A direct assault or kinetic strike will result in numerous civilian casualties, but the third option is fraught with uncertainty. The Brigade Cyber Electromagnetic Activities (CEMA) cell recommends disabling the radar using Offensive Cyber Operations (OCO). A similar scenario was exercised during pre-deployment training; however, the dynamic nature of the current operation leaves doubts if the multi-agency coordination required can be completed in the expedited timeline required.

The unrelenting tempo of combat operations at the Corps and below level in the Army creates unique challenges for the execution of (OCO). U.S Army Cyber Command’s efforts to provide cyber support to Corps and below have already generated significant successes integrating operational cyberspace capabilities at the tactical level during multiple National Training Center rotations. [1] While OCO conducted to support Corps and below operations may provide desired effects at the tactical level of war, there is potential for this OCO support to have significant negative strategic, operational and tactical ramifications. A primary concern surrounding the conduct of OCO at the tactical level focuses on how operations with potentially strategic effects can be executed in the rapid, decentralized manner required by the breakneck operational tempo (OPTEMPO) typified at the tactical level of war. There are also secondary concerns regarding the loss of capabilities and access, and always present risks of digital fratricide and OCO retaliation that must be considered.