Operation ‘Dawn Of Yemen’

Eurasia Review | Neville Teller

The Houthis seized the port of Mocha in early September, gaining roughly 150km of coastline and threatening the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Brent crude, which had averaged about $89 per barrel for most of 2026, rose above $110 before any matching loss of output. Yemen's government, backed by Saudi Arabia, launched a counter-offensive on October 4.

Presidential Leadership Council president Rashad al-Alimi announced Operation Dawn of Yemen on October 5. Coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki said 100 fighter aircraft joined the opening phase and 324 high-value targets were destroyed. Neville Teller judges that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman probably wants the Houthis pushed away from Bab al-Mandeb, while the council frames the campaign as a step towards national reunification. The crown prince pressed President Donald Trump to strike the Houthis. Trump declined direct US participation. Teller suggests Riyadh wants to negotiate from strength, with Egyptian support on offer.

Pentagon drafts Iran attack plans as Tehran threatens aggressive retaliation

The Hill | Filip Timotija

The US military has prepared options for renewed strikes against Iran, potentially after the November midterm elections, as Tehran threatens more aggressive retaliation. US Central Command has developed strike packages for consideration by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, pending presidential authorisation. President Donald Trump has kept his options open amid stalled diplomatic negotiations and mounting pressure for concessions.

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group links the planning to frustration over negotiations and existing economic pressure from sanctions and a US naval blockade. Former Defence Intelligence Agency officer Harrison Mann identifies possible attacks on inland military targets or civilian and energy infrastructure, particularly if Israel participates. Iran threatens US bases, warships, oil facilities and Gulf infrastructure. The article reports more than 50,000 US service members and about 20 warships in the Middle East, alongside additional carrier and amphibious forces. Brent crude surpassed $117 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $102. Analysts disagree over whether renewed strikes could force Tehran to concede or instead reinforce its determination to retaliate.

The EU Stubbornly Continues Its Russian Energy Dependency

Eurasia Review | Andrew Moran

Nearly five years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union remains a major buyer of Russian energy. CREA data cited by Andrew Moran show the EU took 48% of Russian LNG and 32% of pipeline gas exports from December 2022 to September 2026, while still sourcing 12% of its gas from Russia, down from 45% before 2022.

Russian LNG export revenues have reached a near-four-year high, and oil-and-gas tax revenues are projected to rise about 10% year-over-year to roughly $12 billion. The European Commission disputes Moscow’s claim that Brussels paid $321 billion since 2022, saying the figure was $209 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s 9 October diesel deal and 60-day sanctions pause drew criticism from Kyiv and Brussels. Audit findings suggest the EU will likely miss its end-2026 deadline to ban Russian LNG amid winter storage pressures. The dependency persists.

The New Subterranean Front

The Atlantic | Simon Shuster

Ukraine’s newest battlefield runs through at least 57 steel gas pipelines beneath the Donbas and Kharkiv regions, where Russian and Ukrainian troops fight in pipes one to two metres wide. Russian infiltrations began in spring 2025, exploiting tunnels to reach positions behind Ukrainian lines. The underground front is expanding.

Above ground, drones have helped create a kill zone dozens of miles wide across a front exceeding 700 miles, where movement is exposed to attack. Brigadier General Ihor Obolensky, commanding the Khartiia Corps, said Russia pioneered subterranean warfare and Ukraine is catching up. Under Operation Veles, Ukrainian forces have retaken about nine miles of pipeline after roughly six months of fighting; Ukraine holds two pipelines, while dozens remain under Russian control. Ukrainian officers and officials report Russian preparations for a winter offensive, with control of the Donbas pipeline network potentially shaping any advance.

What the U.S. Is Really Doing in Venezuela

The Atlantic | Anne Applebaum

Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela holds tens of billions of barrels of oil reserves beneath its waters, representing a vital strategic asset that historically built Caracas and sustained four decades of democracy following its discovery over a century ago. Potential American control over portions of these vast reserves comes amidst growing criticism regarding resource extraction and democratic suppression in the region.

Environmental degradation severely plagues the estuary today. Abandoned offshore drilling platforms and leaking underwater pipelines continuously discharge raw petroleum into the brackish water, directly harming traditional fishing livelihoods. Local fishermen report navigating active gas leaks and visible oil slicks daily to secure modest catches of fish. The physical decay of Maracaibo's petroleum infrastructure highlights how historic wealth generation has given way to systemic industrial neglect. With immense reserves remaining untapped offshore, control over Venezuelan hydrocarbons remains a primary focal point of international energy competition and strategic friction across South America.

On oil, the US keeps India guessing

The Indian Express | Shifali Goyal

The United States temporarily waived specified duties and sanctions under the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on October 16, easing immediate tariff pressure on India without removing the underlying threat. President Trump’s decision followed his October 9 statement that Russia would supply several million tons of diesel to US and global markets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would take around 60 days to assess the waiver’s implications. The relief remains reversible.

The Act authorises duties of up to 500 per cent on direct US imports from Russia and up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude and gas in the previous year if they make new purchases from October 18. The 100 per cent tariff is discretionary, making the legislation a potential bargaining instrument. India’s combined US duties reached 50 per cent in August 2025, including an extra 25 per cent linked to Russian oil, while a February 2026 interim agreement remains unsigned. The article connects this uncertainty with wider US tariff negotiations and the disruption to Gulf oil supplies following the US-Israel campaign against Iran, which began in February 2026. Rubio’s reference to Venezuelan crude offers another possible option for India’s oil mix, but neither the trade deal nor future sourcing arrangements has been settled.

U.S. and Israel are planning for a possible attack on Iran, source tells NPR

NPR | Daniel Estrin, Hadeel Al-Shalchi, Ruth Sherlock

The U.S. and Israel are preparing plans for a possible attack on Iran in early November, after the U.S. midterm elections on 3 November, a person briefed on the war planning told NPR. Israel had initially planned a mid-October strike before its own elections on 27 October, but President Trump objected. The U.S. is amassing forces in the region.

Preparations could also pressure Iran toward a diplomatic deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready for diplomacy or war. An Iranian security source warned of retaliation against U.S. interests and assets of participating countries if officials or civilian infrastructure are hit. The conflict began on 28 February with U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader and senior officials. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and targeted vessels; the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports and oil shipments. U.S. strikes have reduced Iran’s air force, air defences and navy, yet Tehran still threatens Gulf states and has struck U.S. bases. The Revolutionary Guard has threatened data centres and underwater internet cables under the Strait. On Thursday it targeted seven oil tankers there, with four catching fire and three hitting naval mines. The IMF reports contractions of around 16 percent for Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar this year, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE also in recession, and projects oil at $130 a barrel in 2027 if disruptions continue.

Iran is not bowing pressure

The Washington Post | Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

Iran is locked in a war of attrition with the United States and pursues clear objectives that President Donald Trump’s recent decision to send another aircraft carrier to the region and threaten the resumption of a significant bombing campaign after the midterms will not alter. The ruling clerics and the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain fixed on those aims.

They seek to create a new tributary order. That order would impose tolls on ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz and sever security ties between the United States and the Arab Gulf states. The added carrier and the post-midterms bombing threat are presented as insufficient to shift Tehran’s course. The clerical and IRGC leadership continues to prioritise control of the waterway and reduced American influence among Gulf partners over any adjustment forced by the latest US deployments.

Why a Russia Gas Deal Can’t Buy Peace in Ukraine

The National Interest | Andreas Umland

President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have urged Kyiv and European capitals to consider resuming Russian gas flows through Ukraine’s pipeline network as part of a peace settlement. The suggestion followed a US announcement of a deal to buy 2.25 million barrels of Russian diesel and reports of discussion around the surviving Nord Stream 2 string.

Ukraine would likely accept transit under a ceasefire. It permitted Russian gas to continue flowing after the February 2022 invasion until 1 January 2025, moving 15–16 billion cubic metres in 2024 and booking over $1 billion under the prior contract. Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 23.8 percent in 2025 to 8.48 trillion rubles, with a further 17.2 percent year-on-year drop in the first nine months of 2026, and the end of Ukrainian transit cost Gazprom up to $4.5 billion annually. Yet Moscow earlier cut Nord Stream supplies for political leverage and has not moderated its territorial aims. An EU regulation now phases out Russian pipeline gas from autumn 2027. Economic cooperation offered before a verified ceasefire would reward aggression without securing behavioural change.

The New Energy Stalemate in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs | Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko

The Trump administration has demanded that Ukraine suspend attacks on Russian refineries, one of Kyiv’s most effective means of pressuring Moscow, as the fifth winter of war approaches. It has also struck a deal with Moscow that temporarily waives US sanctions on Russian diesel exports, and its envoys have proposed that Europe buy more Russian gas, Mitrova and Vakulenko write.

Ukraine has adapted with batteries and distributed generation, yet 2,500 to 3,000 of Kyiv’s 12,000 apartment buildings could enter winter without alternative heat. Ukrainian drones have cut Russian refinery throughput by roughly 30 percent since mid-2025, leaving a gasoline shortfall of about ten percent. Moscow has room to manoeuvre, having loosened fuel standards and subsidised imported gasoline. Neither side has a decisive edge. The authors judge that energy strikes alone are unlikely to force either side to accept the other’s terms, and only a true cease-fire can break the cycle.

Why African Oil Cannot Solve the Global Fuel Crisis

The National Interest | Yagiz Sullu

Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Algeria have long supplied crude to world markets and offer shipping routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Amid ongoing Middle East conflict, buyers seek these alternatives to reduce exposure. Yet established producers cannot rapidly raise output to ease the global fuel crisis.

Most lack spare capacity. Production in Nigeria, Angola and Algeria has declined for years as fields mature and exploration lags. Nigeria’s Bonga Complex and Agbami face natural depletion, compounded by pipeline vandalism and theft. Fifteen of Angola’s twenty largest fields have reached at least 70 percent maturity. Algeria’s Hassi Messaoud requires fresh investment under heavy state control. Africa’s refining base remains thin; many producers still import products. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has reached 700,000 barrels per day, but new capacity will take years. Domestic gasoline and diesel demand is projected to rise to 2050, pressuring governments to favour local markets. Diversifying suppliers can cut route risk but cannot offset shortages or price spikes when oil trades globally. Spare production capacity remains the decisive missing element.

US Must Incorporate Houthi Threat Into Its Iran Strategy

Eurasia Review | Majid Rafizadeh

Houthi military forces launched missile and drone strikes against King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, killing over a dozen people in Riyadh and two in Dammam. Additional strikes targeted Saudi Aramco facilities, Aden's presidential palace complex, and a Yemeni training camp, killing as many as 73 recruits.

These attacks underscore how Iranian proxy operations externalize pressure across the Arabian Peninsula while avoiding direct risk to Iranian territory. According to reporting in the Wall Street Journal, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps provides critical targeting intelligence, training, and tactical guidance to enable Houthi strikes. Purely diplomatic approaches fail. To restore regional deterrence and protect critical maritime shipping lanes, American forces must incorporate Houthi capabilities into their broader Iran strategy through coordinated kinetic pressure. Targeting command nodes and launch infrastructure offers a direct pathway to degrade proxy capacity, forcing Tehran to negotiate over its enriched uranium stockpile.

Trump's diesel price relief efforts grow costlier as election nears

Reuters | Jarrett Renshaw and Leah Douglas

President Donald Trump has offered farmers billions of dollars, relaxed rules for truckers, eased sanctions on Russian fuel and pressed European allies to release emergency stocks, yet US diesel prices rose nearly 10 cents a gallon in the latest week to an average of $6.28. Prices remain near record highs, the Energy Information Administration said.

Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress ahead of the November midterms, and nearly 80% of Americans blame Trump for higher costs, according to an October Reuters/Ipsos poll. The pressure is sharpest in Farm Belt states such as Iowa and Kansas. Easing sanctions on Russian diesel has drawn bipartisan criticism. Analysts say the Iran conflict, far more than Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, has driven the spike. An $8 billion aid package would lift farm payments to a record $55.4 billion, above the $45 billion of 2020, but it arrives after the November 3 election.

U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans for Renewed Strikes on Iran After Elections

The New York Times | Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Farnaz Fassihi, Natan Odenheimer, Ronen Bergman

The United States and Israeli militaries have prepared detailed operational plans for renewed airstrikes against Iranian energy, nuclear, and missile infrastructure following the American midterm elections. Joint strike exercises over Iraqi airspace have intensified alongside high-level consultations in Israel between Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This planned short campaign aims to compel diplomatic concessions after eight months of hostilities by destabilising Tehran's fragile economy. War stocks face severe strain. Previous strike waves between February and April 2026 drove global energy inflation and depleted Pentagon missile interceptor inventories without securing a decisive settlement. Opponents argue additional strikes risk further market volatility while failing to neutralise hardened strategic assets. President Donald Trump retains veto authority over major combat operations, having previously halted planned strikes earlier this month. Continued preparations nevertheless signal elevated escalation risks across the Middle East if Washington and Tel Aviv authorise the offensive.

Putin Nears a Prize: Restoring Ties With the U.S. While Giving Up Nothing

The New York Times | Valerie Hopkins

President Donald Trump suspended US sanctions on Russian energy and agreed on 9 October 2026 to purchase Russian diesel, attempting to lower domestic fuel prices prior to mid-term elections. This policy shift trades long-term economic leverage against Moscow for immediate, short-term domestic price relief. Washington simultaneously pressured President Volodymyr Zelensky to halt Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil refineries, effectively disabling Kyiv's most potent operational lever.

This concession comes despite Russia offering no diplomatic or territorial compromises regarding its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. A year prior, American sanctions had targeted Russia's two largest oil companies after peace summits in Anchorage and Budapest broke down. Moscow successfully decoupled its military campaign in Ukraine from commercial and diplomatic relations with Washington. Putin surrendered nothing. Consequently, Washington's pursuit of fuel relief has compromised long-term strategic deterrence against Kremlin aggression, granting normalised ties without operational compromise.

America's Bet on Post-Maduro Venezuela (w/ Richard Sanders)

The National Interest | Staff Writer

Venezuelan oil production reached 1 million barrels per day following the United States seizure of Nicolás Maduro nine months ago, as Washington attempts to stabilize the nation's energy sector under Delcy Rodríguez. With global energy security unsettled by ongoing transit vulnerabilities in the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, North American Blue Energy Partners secured 100-year concessions covering roughly 65 billion barrels of oil.

This structural realignment provides major American energy corporations Chevron and ExxonMobil expanded operational access to the world's largest proven petroleum reserves. Infrastructure rehabilitation demands multi-billion-dollar investments. While the interim administration in Caracas inches forward with political transition talks, Washington seeks to leverage Western Hemisphere maritime access and geographic proximity to insulate Western markets from broader geopolitical shocks. Yet significant questions persist regarding whether oil-driven revenues will reach ordinary citizens or whether the United States can establish a durable diplomatic partnership without triggering domestic political pushback within Venezuela.

The Middle East's Next Energy Boom Has Nothing to Do With Oil

Oilprice | Alan Mammoser

Escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude oil prices above $110 per barrel as Persian Gulf tanker disruptions threaten global maritime trade routes. Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG)—natural gas cooled to liquid form for maritime export—surged past $30 per MMBtu, while Japan's trade deficit doubled and domestic electricity prices surged 25 percent.

Cascading maritime chokepoint disruptions are exposing deep structural vulnerabilities in global fuel supply chains and refining distribution networks. India's national crude import bill expanded 46 percent, forcing state refiners to reduce Middle East term contract volumes. Emergency supply buffers face immediate operational limits. To cushion ongoing market deficits, the United States offered 17 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—government-controlled crude stockpiles used to offset major supply shocks—even as Norwegian gas production plunged 12.6 percent ahead of winter. Concurrently, Saudi crude exports reached a five-month high despite domestic crude production dropping to record low levels.

How the Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil

The National Interest | Scott B. MacDonald

Yemen's Houthis launched sustained strikes against Saudi Aramco headquarters and critical energy infrastructure, threatening to sustain global crude prices above $100 per barrel. The offensive demonstrates how non-state actors leverage Iranian ballistic missiles and Chinese component support to disrupt regional energy networks. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan operationalised the August 2026 Mecca Joint Defense Agreement to establish mutual security guarantees.

Deterrence failed. Islamabad committed troops to protect Saudi sovereignty, yet diplomatic frictions with Taliban-led Afghanistan and economic ties to Tehran severely constrain Pakistan's operational deployment. Concurrently, Ankara provided military drones to Riyadh while avoiding direct engagement with Houthi forces to safeguard its $30 billion trade target with Iran. This dynamic highlights the growing friction between mutual defense commitments and complex bilateral dependencies across the region. Despite US air strikes and a temporary bilateral truce, Washington remains reluctant to re-engage directly in Yemen.

Europe Braces for a Winter Energy Crisis as Gas Reserves Low

Oilprice | Felicity Bradstock

Europe faces escalating winter energy costs and fuel shortages driven by Middle East disruptions and depleted gas storage. Gas reserves sit at approximately 67 percent across Europe, while German storage is roughly half full and set to miss its annual 80 percent target. European natural gas prices have more than doubled since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli-led war in Iran.

The European Union has incurred over €900 billion in extra energy costs since 2022, compounded by strict trade constraints through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged by 65 percent, diesel by 45 percent, and jet fuel by 112 percent between September 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom faces potential manufacturing job losses numbering 163,000 in 2026, with Centrica CEO Chris O'Shea confirming the country entered winter with virtually no gas in storage. Surging operating expenses threaten industrial output and employment across the continent, while increased U.S. LNG shipments and falling freight rates offer only partial relief against ongoing maritime disruptions.

The Prince Who Swallowed the State

FrameTheGlobeNews

Houthi drones and ballistic missiles struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in October 2026, killing at least 12 people and wounding over 300 as Saudi Arabia faced compounding security crises. This strike followed a September Iraqi drone attack disabling the East-West pipeline, driving Saudi oil production to a thirty-year low following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic vulnerability stems from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman centralizing state power since 2015 while dismantling traditional security checks across the military and intelligence services. Depleted interceptor inventories forced Riyadh to request air defense assets from France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt. Saudi defense capabilities are depleted. An eleven-year Yemen campaign involving 25,000 airstrikes failed to dislodge Houthi forces from Sana'a or secure the Bab el-Mandeb. Domestic purges and the 2017 Ritz-Carlton detentions consolidated $106 billion for state funds, but stripped security agencies of independent operational leadership.