India in a corner: Beneath the foreign policy bluster is a great floundering

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By Pratap Bhanu Mehta

The vigour of PM Narendra Modi’s travels can barely disguise the fact that in terms of India’s security objectives, he is looking very weak indeed. 

India finds itself increasingly cornered into a strategic cul-de-sac. Even as its diplomacy expands, its political options seem to decrease; even as it reaches out to look east and look west, the strategic space to address its core concerns does not seem to be expanding; and even as its bluster about a strong state grows, doubts about its military capabilities are growing equally louder. So, paradoxically, India finds itself in this position that even as it is globally recognised, it looks more helpless in its own backyard.

Maldives Crisis Could Stir Trouble Between China and India

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By MUJIB MASHAL

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — As the Maldives’ autocratic president, Abdulla Yameen, cracks down on opposition to consolidate power ahead of another election, analysts and diplomats warn that the small nation’s troubles could provoke a larger crisis that draws in China and India, which have long competed for influence in the Indian Ocean region.

Mr. Yameen, who this month declared a state of emergency and rounded up Supreme Court judges and opposition leaders, has cozied up to China. He has invited heavy investment into the Maldives as part of Beijing’s ambitious “One Belt, One Road” initiative, the infrastructure program reviving land and sea trading routes that China is using to spread its influence around the globe.

India Gains Access to Oman's Duqm Port, Putting the Indian Ocean Geopolitical Contest in the Spotlight

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By Ankit Panda

Duqm adds an important node to a growing network of facilities in the Indian Ocean held by actors with interests in preserving the status quo.

As a result of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent trip to Oman — part of a broader Middle Eastern tour — New Delhi and Muscat finalized an agreement that will see India gain access to the strategically located port of Duqm, on Oman’s southern coast. The port sits on the northwestern edge of the Indian Ocean and also provides easy access onward into the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden.

Why India no longer cares about Pakistan's nuclear threats

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SUSHANT SAREEN

For over quarter of a century, Pakistan’s undeclared war on India has centred on two pillars. The first is export of terror. The second is nuclear sabre-rattling. The strategic calculus of the Pakistanis is simple.

The terrorists are pushed into India without any fear of a similar pushback from India. This is so because unlike Pakistan, India doesn’t use terrorists as an instrument of state policy. India’s capacity to hit back using its conventional superiority has been severely constrained by the second pillar of Pakistani policy — nuclear weapons.

Pakistan to send troops to Saudi Arabia to train and advise

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Reuters Staff, 

KARACHI, Pakistan (Reuters) - Pakistan is sending troops to ally Saudi Arabia on a “training and advise mission”, the military said, three years after it decided against sending soldiers to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen.

The exact role the troops will play was unclear, but a statement from the army’s press wing on Thursday stressed they “will not be employed outside” the kingdom.

Pakistan’s retired army chief, General Raheel Sharif, commands the new Saudi-led Islamic military alliance to fight terrorism, though it was not immediately clear whether the new troops would participate in that coalition.

Relations between Washington and Islamabad? It’s Complicated

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Bottom Line: Current U.S.-Pakistan relations remain strained as the U.S. maintains that Pakistan’s security and intelligence services are doing the minimum to hunt America’s militant enemies within its borders. Pakistani officials have told The Cipher Brief that they have been searching for a way to restart relations despite public humiliation by President Donald Trump earlier this year. Each side wants to keep the other from seeking alternative support – with China wooing Pakistan, and the U.S. growing closer to India.

Background: U.S-Pakistan bilateral ties have been a rollercoaster from the start.

US Demands Pakistan Arrest “Hit List” of Top Haqqani & Taliban Leaders

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KIMBERLY DOZIER 

The Trump administration has given Pakistan a new “hit list” of nearly a dozen top militants to detain, to show its willingness to fight terrorism, but the U.S. won’t share intelligence that would help lead to their capture, and has snubbed Pakistani requests to meet CIA chief Mike Pompeo in Washington, a senior Pakistani official tells The Cipher Brief.

In response, senior U.S. administration officials would only say that Washington has asked Pakistan to take “specific” action against the Taliban and the Haqqani network, which have been blamed for recent violent attacks in Kabul, Afghanistan. The officials tell The Cipher Brief that Pakistan’s intelligence service and military have failed to sever ties with either militant group and continue to protect their top leaders within Pakistani territory.

Why Trump’s Troubling Pakistan Policy Dooms Afghanistan Peace

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By Touqir Hussain

The administration’s approach to Islamabad undermines potential solutions in Afghanistan.

For a 16-year-long war in Afghanistan, whose failure lies in an endless list of complex causes – including flawed strategy, incoherent war aims, return of the warlords, rise of fiefdoms and ungoverned spaces, corruption, power struggles and a competitive and conflict-prone regional environment – U.S. President Donald Trump has one simple solution: get rid of the Haqqani Network and Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan. And if Pakistan does not oblige, cut off aid.

Can Ancient Chinese Military Strategy Bring Success in Cyber Conflict?

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Drew Robb

Can Ancient Chinese Military Strategy Bring Success in Cyber Conflict?

Without an understanding of who the enemy really is, how they operate, and the many techniques they use to gain entry, successful defense is unlikely.

Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist and philosopher who wrote The Art of War, famously said, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”

The Tech Giants Growing Behind China’s Great Firewall

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Every day, your feeds are likely dominated by the latest news about Silicon Valley's biggest tech giants.

Whether it’s Facebook’s newest algorithm changes, Amazon’s announcement to enter the healthcare market, a new acquisition by Alphabet, or the buzz about the latest iPhone – the big four tech giants in the U.S. are covered extensively by the media, and we’re all very familiar with what they do.

However, what is less commonly talked about is the alternate universe that exists on the other side of China’s Great Firewall. It’s there that four Chinese tech giants are taking advantage of a lack of foreign competition to post explosive growth numbers – some which compare favorably even to their American peers.

The Tibetan 'gangsters' in the net of Mr Zhao?

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At the end of 2017, it was reported that China had received Prof Samdhong Rinpoche, former Prime Minister of the Central Tibetan Administration in Dharamsala and now Special Envoy of the Dalai Lama to ‘negotiate’ an eventual visit of the Tibetan leader to Wutai shan (Mount) in Shanxi province of Northern China.

Mount Wutai is said to be one of the Four Sacred Mountains in Chinese Buddhism. Each of the mountains is viewed as the abode of one of the four great bodhisattvas. Wutai is the home of Manjusri, the Bodhisattva of wisdom. It is believed that Manjusri has been associated with Mount Wutai since ancient times.

CHINA TO BUILD MORE NAVAL BASES TO AUGMENT THE MARITIME PART OF THEIR BELT-AND-ROAD STRATEGY

By Yang Sheng

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It is reasonable and necessary for China to strengthen its maritime power as it is becoming stronger, Chinese experts said after People’s Daily published three articles on a whole page to emphasize the importance of building China into a strong maritime country.

“Building China as a maritime power fits China’s development, the global trend and is the necessary choice for realizing the Chinese Dream of the national rejuvenation,” read one article published on People’s Daily on Sunday under the topic “It’s about time to build a strong maritime country.”

Understanding China’s Response to the Rakhine Crisis

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Following attacks on police posts by an armed Rohingya militia in August 2017, reprisals by the Burmese government have precipitated a humanitarian crisis. More than six hundred thousand Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh, where they face an uncertain future. Publicly stating that the root cause of conflict in Rakhine is economic underdevelopment, China—Burma’s largest neighbor and closest trading partner—has put itself in a position to promote its large-scale infrastructure investments as a means of conflict resolution. This Special Report examines the reason why Chinese engagement is likely to continue to prioritize a narrow range of issues in Rakhine that reinforce its own economic and diplomatic interests, but fail to influence the complex drivers of the current humanitarian conflict or the Burmese government’s involvement in human rights abuses. 

Security and Stability in Turkey

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By Fabien Merz

Fabian Merz contends that Turkey has witnessed a significant deterioration of stability and security in recent years. So what’s behind this development and what might the future hold for Turkey’s stability? In this article, Merz provides answers by looking at the driving factors that have contributed to Turkey’s current security situation, including 1) Turkey’s growing authoritarianism; 2) the 2016 military coup attempt and its aftermath; 3) jihadist terrorism related to the war in Syria, and 4) the reignition of the Kurdish conflict.

Recent developments in Turkey have far-reaching implications. Domestic political instability, jihadist terrorism related to the war in Syria, and the newly inflamed Kurdish conflict have led to a marked deterioration in the country’s security situation over the last few years. What are the causes of this development, and what does the future hold in terms of Turkey’s stability?

Russian Military Power in the Indo-Asia–Pacific

By Alexey Muraviev

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Current perceptions of Russia as a power factor in the Indo-Asia–Pacific (IndAsPac) geopolitical system are very much influenced by established post–Cold War assumptions that Moscow is no longer able to influence the regional geostrategic landscape because of its reduced military power and limited economic engagement with the region, and thus should be disregarded as a player worth considering and factoring into any strategic calculus.

The (Former) Soviet Empire Strikes Back

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Richard Sokolsky, Paul Stronski

Russia’s meddling in the U.S. political system is part of a broader global campaign to undermine what the Kremlin sees as a Western-dominated international order.

It took quite a while but the Trump administration, in the recently released National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, is finally talking about Russia as a strategic competitor. But before the national-security bureaucracy gathers a head of steam to wage Cold War 2.0, Washington should take a deep collective breath and approach this challenge with patience, realism, prudence and restraint to avoid overreaching as it seeks to protect core American interests.

Syria’s War Is Fueling Three More Conflicts

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BY KRISHNADEV CALAMUR

As ISIS evaporates, the buffer zones between armed combatants of several opposing groups and nations have disappeared.

When an Israeli jet crashed after being shot down over Syria over the weekend, it marked a serious escalation in the Syrian Civil War. But it also reflected an ongoing reality, one that is growing more dangerous: Syria’s war encompasses at least three other international conflicts, each of which are heating up.

Why South Africa matters to the world

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Gideon Rachman

During the 1980s and 1990s, the struggle against apartheid made headlines all over the world. Nelson Mandela’s dignity, first as a prisoner and then as president, gave him the international status of a Gandhi. Events in post-apartheid, post-Mandela South Africa, were always likely to seem relatively humdrum.

What The U.S. Needs If It Is To Win The Current Great-Power Struggle

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by Benn Steil

"The United States is confronted with a condition in the world which is at direct variance with the assumptions upon which [our foreign] policies were predicated. Instead of unity among the great powers . . . there is complete disunity."

The secretary of state concluded that the Russians were “doing everything possible to achieve a complete breakdown." The president called for unilateral action to counter U.S. adversaries. “If we falter in our leadership," he told Congress, “[we will] surely endanger the welfare of this nation."

How can policy keep pace with the Fourth Industrial Revolution?

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In today’s era of transformative scientific and technological advances, businesses are not only creating new products and services. They are reshaping industries, blurring geographical boundaries and challenging existing regulatory frameworks.

The industries being powered by advanced technologies like IoT, artificial intelligence and blockchain are developing so quickly that it can be difficult for industry analysts and experts to keep pace.

Revitalizing manufacturing through AI

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Andrew Ng

Dear Friends,

I am excited to announce Landing.ai, a new Artificial Intelligence company that will help other enterprises transform for the age of AI. We will initially focus on the manufacturing industry.

AI is already transforming the IT industry. In my work leading Google Brain and Baidu’s AI Group, I’ve been fortunate to play a role in the transformation of two great Internet companies, and see firsthand the benefits modern AI brings to these businesses and to their users. It is now time to build not just an AI-powered IT industry, but an AI-powered society. One in which our physical needs, health care, transportation, food, and lodging are more accessible through AI, and where every person is freed from repetitive mental drudgery. For the whole world to experience the benefits of AI, it must pervade many industries, not just the IT industry.

When might Cyber Command and the NSA split? Good question

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By: Mark Pomerleau 

This is the second part of a series exploring the future of Cyber Command. For previous installments, see part one.

Already tasked with making Cyber Command a full unified combatant command, national security leaders are working on a separate, but parallel effort: splitting of the dual hat relationship between Cyber Command and NSA.

There is no timeline either mandated or charted for a split.

Congress, however, has outlined specific metrics DoD, Cyber Command and NSA must meet in order for the split to occur. These include ensuring each organization has sufficient operational infrastructure to operate independently, guaranteeing the missions of each won’t be impacted by the division and requiring the cyber mission force achieves full operational capability, among others.

When might Cyber Command and the NSA split? Good question.

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By: Mark Pomerleau 

This is the second part of a series exploring the future of Cyber Command. For previous installments, see part one.

Already tasked with making Cyber Command a full unified combatant command, national security leaders are working on a separate, but parallel effort: splitting of the dual hat relationship between Cyber Command and NSA.

There is no timeline either mandated or charted for a split.

Congress, however, has outlined specific metrics DoD, Cyber Command and NSA must meet in order for the split to occur. These include ensuring each organization has sufficient operational infrastructure to operate independently, guaranteeing the missions of each won’t be impacted by the division and requiring the cyber mission force achieves full operational capability, among others.

INTEL CHIEFS SOUND ALARM ON CHINA THREAT

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Bill Gertz

U.S. intelligence leaders warned Congress Tuesday that China poses a major security threat by stealing and buying sensitive American technology.

Chinese companies linked to the Beijing government are using a variety of methods, including cyber attacks and acquisitions of American companies to gain access to cutting edge know-how, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Daniel Coats said during an annual threat briefing for the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Manpower, Parts Shortages Would Hinder Navy In Wartime

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By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.

Faced with erratic funding from Congress, the Navy has pursued cost-efficiency so rigorously that it has cut corners and compromised peacetime safety and, very possibly, wartime performance. Crews are shorthanded and spare parts stockpiles are low.

The Ticonderoga-class cruiser Shiloh in dry dock in Yokosuka, Japan.

The Army's next network strategy: halt, fix, pivot

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By: Mark Pomerleau 

The Army submitted a report to Congress last month, as mandated by the 2018 defense authorization bill, that requested the Army’s strategy for “modernizing air-land ad-hoc, mobile tactical communications and data networks.”

Following a highly contentious review, the Army announced last year it would make major changes to its tactical network, the $6 billion program known as Warfighter Information Network, citing operational concerns.