Compute for India: A Measured Approach

Amlan Mohanty

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Introduction

Compute, as we explain in our primer, is used to refer to many things—the capacity to perform complex calculations, specific hardware equipment like semiconductors, or as a unit of measurement expressed in floating-point operations per second (FLOPS) that quantifies a computer’s ability to execute high-performance tasks like machine learning.

A more holistic view of compute positions it as a technology stack comprising three layers—a hardware, a software, and an infrastructure layer. Collectively, this forms what has come to be known as the “compute stack,” which may include:

• Advanced chips (GPUs, TPUs)
• Specialised software to run the chips (compute unified device architecture or CUDA)
• Data centers and network infrastructure (Google, AWS, Azure)
• Data storage and management software (Oracle, IBM, SAP)
• Machine learning frameworks and programming languages (PyTorch)

Compute is central to the IndiaAI mission. In March 2024, the Cabinet allocated Rs. 10,372 crores ($1.3 billion) for the mission, nearly half of which, about Rs. 4,568 crores, has been earmarked to build compute capacity across the country. This demonstrates the importance of compute to India’s growing AI ambitions.

Indian Voters Are Being Bombarded With Millions of Deepfakes. Political Candidates Approve

NILESH CHRISTOPHER & VARSHA BANSAL

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ON A STIFLING April afternoon in Ajmer, in the Indian state of Rajasthan, local politician Shakti Singh Rathore sat down in front of a greenscreen to shoot a short video. He looked nervous. It was his first time being cloned.

Wearing a crisp white shirt and a ceremonial saffron scarf bearing a lotus flower—the logo of the BJP, the country’s ruling party—Rathore pressed his palms together and greeted his audience in Hindi. “Namashkar,” he began. “To all my brothers—”

Before he could continue, the director of the shoot walked into the frame. Divyendra Singh Jadoun, a 31-year-old with a bald head and a thick black beard, told Rathore he was moving around too much on camera. Jadoun was trying to capture enough audio and video data to build an AI deepfake of Rathore that would convince 300,000 potential voters around Ajmer that they’d had a personalized conversation with him—but excess movement would break the algorithm. Jadoun told his subject to look straight into the camera and move only his lips. “Start again,” he said.

General says he warned that Afghanistan would get ‘very bad, very fast’

Dan Lamothe

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The top U.S. general in Afghanistan during the American military’s 2021 withdrawal repeatedly warned Washington that security would get “very bad, very fast” after troops departed, but the Biden administration still failed to grasp the danger in keeping its embassy open with only nominal protection, he told lawmakers investigating the war’s deadly endgame.

The China-Pakistan Axis and Indian Ocean Geopolitics

Sankalp Gurjar

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The China-Pakistan axis has existed since 1963 when both countries realized that they share a common objective of limiting India’s influence. In the recent past, the axis has only strengthened with initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and expansion in the strategic maritime relationship. The latest development in this relationship has been the Chinese assistance to Pakistan in augmenting its submarine fleet.

Pakistan is modernizing its naval fleet and is acquiring submarines from China. Reportedly, China launched the first of eight Hangor class submarines at Wuchang Shipyard in Wuhan. As per the deal, China would build four submarines in Pakistan while the remaining four will be constructed by China in its shipyards. Apparently, Germany has refused to supply engines for these submarines and China has to find alternative sources for the engines. However, these submarines are expected to boost Pakistan’s naval capabilities.

The submarine deal is part of Pakistan’s overall naval modernization program and is an indication of the deepening China-Pakistan security relationship. The China-Pakistan relationship is described by both sides as ‘higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, sweeter than honey and stronger than steel.’ The emerging naval dimension of China-Pakistan relations is quite literally taking it ‘deeper than oceans.’ As many countries in the Indo-Pacific region are modernizing their naval capabilities, strengthening the China-Pakistan axis in the maritime domain is part of the same trendline.

How China Will Squeeze, Not Seize, Taiwan

Isaac Kardon and Jennifer Kavanagh

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Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, the retiring commander of U.S. military joint forces in the Indo-Pacific, expressed concern that China was accelerating its timeline to unify with Taiwan by amphibious invasion. “I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years,” he warned. This assessment that the United States is up against an urgent deadline to head off a Chinese attack on Taiwan—dubbed the “Davidson Window”—has since become a driving force in U.S. defense strategy and policy in Asia.

Indeed, the Defense Department has defined a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as the “pacing scenario” around which U.S. military capabilities are benchmarked, major investments are made, and joint forces are trained and deployed. Taipei has been somewhat less fixated on this particular threat. But over the last decade, as the cross-strait military balance has tilted in Beijing’s favor, Taiwan’s leaders have ramped up their military spending and training expressly to deter and deny such an attack.

The threat of an amphibious invasion, however, is the wrong focal point for the United States’ efforts to protect Taiwan. China’s patient, long-term Taiwan policy, which treats unification as a “historical inevitability,” together with its modest record of military action abroad, suggests that Beijing’s more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy it is already pursuing: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan’s airspace, maritime space, and information space. The world should expect to see more of what have come to be known as “gray-zone operations”—coercive activities in the military and economic domains that fall short of war.

As China ramps up disinformation, the U.S. is far too vulnerable - Opinion

Max Boot

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MAGA Republicans often raise the fanciful specter of foreigners voting in U.S. elections. That almost never happens, because only U.S. citizens can legally vote. But foreign countries enjoy considerable leeway to influence U.S. elections. Russia took advantage in 2016 to intervene on behalf of Donald Trump, helping him eke out a narrow victory. The Kremlin appears to be gearing up another pro-Trump campaign this year.

Will China Succeed in Creating an Asian Security Order?

Richard Ghiasy and Jagannath Panda

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From April 18-23 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a three-nation tour of Cambodia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. The trip is part of a packed diplomatic agenda that’s been in motion since the start of the year which looks to consolidate China’s status in Asia as the prime geoeconomic and geopolitical influencer.

Visits by leaders and other high-level officials, including from Russia, the Global South and rich European states like Germany, to China and by China’s President Xi Jinping and high-level Chinese officials to various parts of the world, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, will test the waters for China’s three world order-building projects: namely the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI).

Diplomatically, politically, and economically, China has already leapfrogged ahead of other regional giants, taking its place among the global superpowers. Yet, thus far, China has been lagging in building an effective Asian security order, one naturally centered on Chinese interests. Importantly, China appears to be very aware of the complexity of promoting and developing an Asian security order: that is to say, the institutions and principles that guide security relations between states.

The U.S. Finally Has a Strategy to Compete With China. Will It Work?

Greg Ip

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The new tariffs President Biden announced last week aren’t economically significant. Symbolically, they are huge.

The U.S. buys almost no electric vehicles, steel or semiconductors—all targets of the tariffs—from China. But, by adding to, rather than rescinding, tariffs imposed in 2018 by former President Donald Trump, it signals that the decoupling of the Chinese and U.S. economies is becoming irreversible.

More important, the tariffs are the final piece of an economic strategy for competing with China.

A three-legged stool

This strategy is a three-legged stool. The first consists of subsidies to build a viable technology manufacturing sector, from clean energy to semiconductors. The second is tariffs on Chinese imports that threaten those efforts. The third is restrictions on access to money, technology and know-how that could help China compete. A fourth leg, a unified economic front with allies, remains unrealized.

What We Know So Far About the Helicopter Crash That Killed Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi

ABBY SEWELL 

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The helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president and foreign minister has sent shock waves around the region.

Iranian state media said on Monday that President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, and others have been found dead at the site after an hourslong search through a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest.

Here’s what we know so far.

Who was on board the helicopter and where were they going?

The helicopter was carrying Raisi, Amirabdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province and others officials, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

The List of Potential Suspects in the Mysterious Death of Iran’s President Raisi

KARL VICK

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Ebrahim Raisi, whose helicopter crashed in the northwest of Iran on Sunday, was both the President of Iran and a candidate jockeying to succeed the elderly actual ruler of the country, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Both political positions carried an elevated risk level roughly comparable with that of traveling by air inside Iran—where aviation safety, compromised by decades of sanctions and uneven maintenance, has claimed the lives of almost as many senior Iranian officials as its shadow war with Israel, which also loomed over Raisi’s reported demise.

The cause of the crash—which also killed Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, and others—is pending investigation. But any official finding will be open to interpretation—like the fireworks that erupted in the streets over Tehran on Sunday night: were they celebrating the eve of the holiday marking the birth of Reza, known as the 8th Imam? Or the death of Raisi, the notoriously hardline President?

Suspicions abound. The crash came two months after Iran launched a massive missile and drone attack on Israel, retaliating for an Israeli airstrike that killed two senior Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. Israel’s initial response to the unprecedented direct attack on its territory was so muted as to qualify as symbolic: targeting an anti-aircraft battery guarding a nuclear facility.

Why Arab leaders aren't helping the Palestinians in Gaza

GIORGIO CAFIERO

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Amid the gruesome Gaza war, passions are running high throughout the Arab world. Huge Palestine solidarity protests have been occurring across the region, and this terrifies many ruling elites who fear the Palestinian issue.

They view it as dangerously destabilizing, and starting months ago, a handful of Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, began clamping down on pro-Palestine activism in their own countries.

Such a crackdown in these Arab countries is no surprise and should be understood on two levels. The first applies to protests in these countries at a foundational level. The second is specific to the Palestinian issue.

Fear of political mobilization

Authoritarian regimes in general often suffer from legitimacy crises and thus see any grassroots activism and mobilization of citizens as potentially threatening. This is the case irrespective of what cause brings the people together. Most Arab governments want to co-opt and regulate such movements and prevent them from ever challenging regime-backed narratives and interests.

Who Would Benefit From Ebrahim Raisi’s Death?

Arash Azizi

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Accidents happen everywhere, but not all accidents are equal. Many hours after initial news broke about an “incident” involving a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s state media has still not confirmed whether he is dead or alive. Various state outlets have published contradictory news—Was Raisi seen on video link after the accident? Was he not? Was the National Security Council meeting? Was it not?—signaling chaos and panic. A source in Tehran close to the presidency told me that Raisi has been confirmed dead, and that the authorities are looking for a way to report the news without causing mayhem. I have not been able to independently confirm this.

Iran doesn’t seem like a country in which presidents die by accident. But it also is a country in which aircraft crash, due to the sorry state of infrastructure in the internationally isolated Islamic Republic. In previous years, at least two cabinet ministers and two leading military commanders have died in similar crashes. Raisi’s chopper, which also carried Iran’s foreign minister and two top regional officials, was passing through an infamously foggy and mountainous area in northwestern Iran. The “incident” might very well have been an accident.

Yet suspicions will inevitably surround the crash. After all, air incidents that killed high political officials in Northern Rhodesia (1961), China (1971), Pakistan (1988), and Poland (2010) are still often subject to speculation. In this case, much as in the others, one question will likely drive the speculation: Who stands to benefit politically from Raisi’s death? Even if the answer to this question does not ultimately tell us why the helicopter crashed, it could shed some light on what will come next in the Islamic Republic.

What comes after Ebrahim Raisi

Jonathan Panikoff

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The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday may have shocked the Middle East and broader world, but it is rather unlikely to alter Iran’s strategic direction in either domestic or foreign policy. While Raisi held the title of president, his authority was constrained by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, within whom ultimate power is vested in the Islamic Republic.

But even so, Raisi’s death does leave a power vacuum in Iran. Section 131 of the Iranian constitution calls for First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to assume power next. But Mokhber is unlikely to have any meaningful influence or seek to succeed Raisi. He will instead, as long as the constitution is followed, be replaced by a successor following an election within fifty days from when Raisi’s death was declared.

For the regime, another round of presidential elections is a headache that it would almost certainly have preferred to avoid. The Guardian Council—the body that determines which candidates are sufficiently loyal enough to the Islamic Republic’s ideology to be permitted to run—thought it had in Raisi a leader who would be around to take Iran into the next generation, likely a post-Khamenei one.

A Theory of Victory for Ukraine

Andriy Zagorodnyuk and Eliot A. Cohen

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The U.S. government decided to provide more assistance to Ukraine just in the nick of time. By the end of April, right before the aid package passed, the war-torn country was emptying its last reserves of ammunition and rationing artillery rounds and shells—and Ukrainian forces began to lose ground in part as a result. The $60 billion now flowing into Ukraine will help correct these disparities, providing Kyiv an opportunity to stop Russia’s offensive. The aid package also serves as a massive psychological boost, giving Ukrainians newfound confidence that they will not be abandoned by their most important partner.

But the aid package alone cannot answer the central question facing Ukraine: how to win the war. Neither can contributions from Europe and beyond, necessary as they are to keeping Kyiv afloat as the conflict drags on. What Ukraine needs is not just more assistance but also a theory of victory—something that some of its partners have studiously avoided discussing. The United States has never planned out its support for Kyiv beyond a few months at a time, even as Congress mandated the provision of a long-term U.S. strategy for its support of Ukraine as a part of the aid bill. It has focused on short-term maneuvers, such as the much-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive, rather than viable long-term strategies or aims—including a potential triumph over Russia. Until end of last year, U.S. officials refrained from even using the term “victory” in public. Similarly, the United States has generally avoided describing its goal in Ukraine as a Russian defeat. Washington’s only real long-term statement—that it will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”—is, by itself, meaningless.

Nicholas Blanford: Hezbollah’s Struggle Against Israel

Jon B. Alterman, Leah Hickert & Will Todman

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Jon Alterman: Nicholas Blanford is a Beirut based security consultant. He's also a non-resident Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council. He's the author of, Killing Mr. Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and Its Impact on the Middle East and Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel. Nicholas Blanford, welcome to Babel.

Nicholas Blanford: Thank you, Jon.

Jon Alterman: As you've written for many years, there are a range of Lebanese attitudes toward Hezbollah. In general, in Lebanon, have the last six months been good for Hezbollah or bad for Hezbollah?

Nicholas Blanford: To be honest, it's probably the same. The division in Lebanon has been so strong and divisive over Hezbollah's weapons and its military aspirations, that what has happened in the last six months is a continuation of the political divisions of Hezbollah's intervention in Syria, Hezbollah's alleged role in the assassination of Rafik Hariri, and so on. What has been going on for the last six months is an expansion of the tensions and schisms between Hezbollah, its supporters, and other components in Lebanon that we've been seeing since at least 2005.

Putin’s lightning assault jolts Europe awake - Opinion

Frida Ghitis

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It was a carefully choreographed show of force in Beijing Thursday as Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for yet another meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. They were all smiles.

Meanwhile in Europe, the atmosphere could have hardly felt less jovial.

On Wednesday, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times and gravely wounded in an assassination attempt. Fico is reportedly out of danger now, with many details about the shooting still unclear. But the dramatic event added to the foreboding sense of crisis across the region; the feeling that, as tense as the situation is, it’s time to prepare urgently, because it might turn much worse.

In the 10 days since Putin was sworn in for yet another term — his fifth as Russia’s president — his forces launched a surprise attack on northeastern Ukraine, drawing close to the country’s second largest city, Kharkiv, and capturing several Ukrainian villages.

Ukraine Vs. Russia: Who Wins A Long War?

Alexander Motyl

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On whose side is time—Ukraine’s or Russia’s?

Or, to put the question more pointedly, which country is better equipped to sustain a long war?

The questions are obviously important. If time is on Ukraine’s side, then it should avoid negotiations and drag out the war for as long as possible. If time is on Russia’s side, then it should act the same way.

The Ukraine War and the Issue of Time and Sustainabilty

Answering these questions is harder than may appear at first glance.

For starters, subjective beliefs are important. Believing you can sustain a war may not guarantee that you will, but it surely makes a difference. Morale matters. But objective indices of resilience—such as numbers of soldiers, weapons, and ammunition—also matter, as does even more so their quality. Finally, a variety of domestic and international factors can also affect the ability of countries to sustain war.

Ukraine Aid Packages Leave Many Unanswered Questions | Opinion

Kevin Roberts

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It didn't even last a month.

In late April, Congress waved Ukraine's colors once again while appropriating another $60 billion for the Ukraine war. Within days, though, the same people who pushed for the package on the Hill, in the White House, and throughout the Washington establishment began saying our aid wouldn't be enough for Ukraine to stop Russian advances.

They're already beating the drum for more support.

Make no mistake. My organization, the Heritage Foundation, wants Ukraine to win and America to flourish. So do the American people. What most Americans don't want, however, is for Washington to prioritize Ukraine's security to the detriment of our fiscal health and other pressing domestic priorities, such as the crisis at the southern border.

A recent poll we conducted of voters in battleground states found that three out of four respondents opposed sending more aid to Ukraine without fortifying our own border. Most (56 percent) also felt that the United States had already sent too much aid to Ukraine—and that was before this latest package passed.

Singing the Blues: the Baltics and Ukraine

Edward Lucas

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Gloom, but not doom. That was the defiant message on Ukraine from this year’s Lennart Meri Conference in the Estonian capital, Tallinn. The annual security-policy shindig, named after the country’s revered first president, was notably glummer this year than last. Ukraine is suffering not only battlefield setbacks but devastating attacks on its heating and power networks. These harm the economy now and will be hard, if not impossible, to repair before winter bites.

All the more reason, therefore, to boost military aid: more weapons, of greater lethality, delivered faster. Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, featured prominently at the conference. She noted that her country has already committed 0.25% of GDP to Ukrainian military aid for the next three years. “If all countries would do the same, it would lead to Ukrainian victory,” she said. “Ukraine is fighting, losing lives—the only thing they ask of us is reallocation of resources.”

Speaking by video link, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, praised Estonia as a “paragon” for its stance and help. But participants’ criticism of other countries was scorching. Only strikes deep into Russian territory will prevent the continuing assault by glide bombs, launched from high altitudes 50 miles from the front line. 

A US-Israeli Defense Treaty: The Time Has Come

Chuck Freilich & Eldad Shavit

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Self-reliance and strategic autonomy have always been fundamental tenets of Israel’s national security strategy. Nevertheless, Israel’s founding father, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, sought a defense treaty with the United States as early as the 1950s, as a means of further augmenting its security. Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak gave serious consideration to a defense treaty in the 1990s and 2000s, both to offset the significant military dangers stemming from the territorial concessions that were part of the dramatic proposals for peace they made with the Palestinians and Syrians, and to assuage the deep and even existential fears these concessions engendered among Israel’s public. Counterintuitively, perhaps, Israel’s defense establishment has long opposed a formal defense treaty.

Until recently, Bill Clinton was the only president to give serious, if reluctant, consideration to a defense treaty, as the price of Rabin’s and Barak’s peace proposals (President Donald Trump briefly toyed with the idea). Indeed, the last time the United States signed a formal defense treaty with any nation – the ultimate American security commitment – was with Japan in 1960. In addition to Japan, the US has bilateral defense treaties with Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and the Philippines, as well as a multilateral treaty with NATO’s 31 members. The different treaties all vary significantly in specific content and in the actual extent of the American security commitment. By far the strongest commitment is in the NATO treaty, in which an attack on one is deemed an attack on all.

Can Hamas be killed? Northern Gaza fighting lays bare Israel’s problem

Mike Brest

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Israel‘s military has returned to northern Gaza to take on Hamas several months after claiming to have dismantled the group in the area.

Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, Israeli military spokesman, said on Jan. 8 that the army has “completed the dismantling of Hamas’s military framework in the northern Gaza Strip,” and yet he told Agence France-Presse on Friday, “Hamas was in complete control here in Jabalia until we arrived a few days ago.”

His comments, roughly five months apart, highlight the complex and difficult realities of achieving Israeli leaders’ goals of destroying Hamas militarily and removing them from their governing position.

“The combat teams of the 7th and 460th Parachute Brigades under the 98th Division expanded during the day the fighting spaces in Jabalia and deepened the operational control of the area,” the IDF said on X.

Missing the forest for the trees: The role of forests in Earth’s climate goes far beyond carbon storage

Sara Blichner, James Weber

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Imagine you’re in a forest. Do you feel soft pine needles underfoot? Or perhaps droplets of rain dripping down from the understory? Is it warm and wet, or cool and dry? What does it smell like?

Every forest has its own unique environment with cooling shade and particular smells, which can vary depending on the kind of forest, and whether it’s a warm and dry summer day, or if it’s been raining. The forest scent comes from a variety of organic vapors emitted by the trees and other plants, commonly referred to as biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). It is still a bit of a mystery why the trees emit these vapors, but proposed reasons include communication with other trees, attracting pollinators, protection against herbivores, heat-stress, and acting as antioxidants.

Although forests are widely understood to be a crucial carbon sink, these vapors can also impact the Earth’s climate in surprising and opposing ways. As the world warms, understanding these complex feedbacks is an essential piece of the climate puzzle.

Cost of climate change comparable to economic damage caused by fighting a war

Oliver Milman

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The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.

A 1-degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) increase in global temperature leads to a 12-percent decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found—a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1-degree Celsius since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3-degree Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) rise will occur by the end of this century. due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels—a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be formally peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.

A 3-degree Celsius temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently,” it adds.

A Thinking and Writing Military Is a Better One

Laura M. Thurston Goodroe & Adam Lowther

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It is time the services stop cutting the budgets and staff of the professional journals and military presses that allow Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines, Guardians, and civilian contributors to discuss and the debate the future of the services, the profession of arms, and how the American military can remain the best in the world. Such cuts are short-sighted and do far more harm than good. Let us explain.

I, (Adam) was once at an international meeting in Changsha, China, representing the US Air Force, when a colonel from the People’s Liberation Army approached me and said, “I read your journal. We can match your technology, but we cannot match the quality of your officers. They are much better thinkers than our own.” I knew at that moment that our professional journals Strategic Studies Quarterly and Air & Space Power Journal (ASPJ) mattered and influenced how the Chinese thought about us and themselves. In the decade since that day, ASPJ—Mandarin ceased publication along with Arabic and French editions. With those cuts went significant influence in China, the Arab world, and Francophone countries around the world.

If current 2025 budget proposals for Air University Press (AUP), the publisher of the above-mentioned journals, and National Defense University (NDU) Press, which publishes Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ) and Prism remain unchanged, operations will become virtually untenable. The circumstances are similar for Naval War College Press, Army War College Press, Marine Corps University Press, and Joint Special Operations University Press.

NO MORAL ABSOLUTISM IN WAR

Monte Erfourth 

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INTRODUCTION

The discourse on foreign policy, especially in ideologically and morally complex contexts, necessitates a nuanced understanding beyond binary moral judgments. Historical precedents, such as World War II alliances and Vietnam War compromises, highlight the intricate balance between moral ideals and strategic imperatives. This balance is crucial in the anarchic international system, where pursuing strategic objectives often involves morally ambiguous strategic decisions. Contemporary debates, particularly regarding the Gaza conflict, underscore the tension between moral absolutism and pragmatic statecraft. This article examines the limitations of moral absolutism in war, focusing on the Israel-Hamas conflict to illustrate the necessity of strategic calculation in achieving a more equitable and peaceful international order.

ETHICS, LAW, AND MORALITY

Applying morality to war navigates between the realism that suspends morality during conflict and pacifism that rejects war's morality. Just war theory mediates this, setting conditions for justified war while imposing moral constraints on conduct. Morality, influenced by cultural, religious, or personal values, represents beliefs about right and wrong. Ethics, systematically studying and applying these beliefs, provides tools for decision-making in practical contexts.

India And Russia In Central Asia: Opening The Doors Of Perception – Analysis

Ivan Shchedrov

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Political pundits while analysing India’s foreign policy tend to examine its implementation in the Indo-Pacific region, where after the economic liberalization, the traditional cultural sphere of influence has been supplemented with economic imperatives. However, the keen interest in the Indo-Pacific maritime spaces may lead to a state of myopia, since other regions of the “extended neighbourhood” may often be overlooked.

One of them is Central Asia, which is of strategic importance for India’s security. In recent years, we witnessed an augmented political engagement in Central Asia’s political process by India, driven by the withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan in 2021. The increased interest is evidenced by the India-Central Asia Dialogue and the recently conducted First India-Central Asia Summit in 2022. The second meeting is anticipated to be held this year.

The intertwined political structure

In 1995, an Indian-born Professor at Columbia University, Jagdish Bhagwati, coined the term “spaghetti bowl” while depicting the framework of US preferential trading arrangements. It means interweaving and complexity of economic preferences between its trade partners.

Why Nepal Escalated Its Map Dispute With India

Rishi Gupta

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On May 12, the economic adviser to the president of Nepal, Chiranjivi Nepal, resigned following his criticism of the government’s decision to print a contentious map showing disputed territories with India on new hundred-rupee notes. The government deemed his remarks damaging to the national interest, which led to his resignation.

The map issue has reignited the territorial disputes with India.

In 2020, the government of Nepal introduced a new map delineating areas contested with India – Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura – as its own, despite the ongoing talks through established diplomatic channels. Kathmandu was apparently responding to India’s construction of a new road in the disputed region. Nepal’s Parliament unanimously formalized the government’s new map through a constitutional amendment in June 2020.

The present ruling left-alliance government in Nepal – led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, alias Prachanda, of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center – has projected the printing of the controversial map as a nationalistic move asserting the country’s territorial sovereignty and integrity. But that’s not the only reason behind the inclusion of the map on Nepali currency.

Japan, Philippines Finalize Largest Maritime Security Pact Days After Chinese CG, Militia Aggression In SCS

Ritu Sharma

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Under the project, Tokyo will fund the construction of five large patrol ships for the Philippines Coast Guard. Manila’s resistance to China’s belligerence in the South China Sea has become the face of the world’s open Indo-Pacific policy.

Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Japanese Ambassador to the Philippines Enzo Kazuya exchanged notes on the third phase of the Maritime Safety Capacity Improvement Project (MSCIP) during a ceremony today in Manila.

The Philippine government approved the project in 2023 to augment the capability of the Philippine Coast Guard to “respond to threats and incidents within the country’s maritime jurisdiction” with a focus on securing “important sea lines of communication in the West Philippine Sea, Sulu-Celebes Seas, and the Philippine Sea” according to a National Economic and Development Authority release.

Yes, Japan Will Defend Taiwan

Ryan C. Bercaw

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Japan officially maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity toward the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty. Taiwan’s security, however, is an unambiguous and essential interest in Tokyo. Should Beijing decide to unify Taiwan by force, Japan’s strategic interest, deep affinity for the Taiwanese, and security alliance with the United States will compel Tokyo to defend its southern neighbor. For Japan, peace in the Taiwan Strait is a matter of national survival.

Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone a rearmament on a scale unseen elsewhere in the 21st century. Beijing is accelerating its military development to have the capabilities required to forcefully unify Taiwan by 2027. While 2027 is hardly a set date for invasion, it does point to the sense of urgency Beijing has toward wielding credible options to resolve the so-called Taiwan issue.

Japan is cognizant of these developments and explicitly affirmed Taiwan’s central importance to Japanese security in three national-level strategic documents released in recent years.

‘China’s is the hand behind Hamas attack on Israel’

Joyeeta Basu

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Massive quantities of Chinese arms, ammunition, military grade communication and other intelligence gathering equipment were found in Hamas warehouses in Gaza during the raids conducted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), in the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by the Palestinian terrorist group. At least two tunnel engineers from China’s People’s Liberation Army were captured by the IDF, suggesting that extensive Chinese help was given to Hamas to construct the huge network of tunnels under Gaza city. Apart from this, PLA has been giving military training to the Hamas. In fact, the head of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, who masterminded the attack on Israel, lived in the PRC for years, and maintains deep contacts with the PLA and CCP. Allegedly, he even has two Chinese Muslim wives. This was disclosed by Guermantes “G-Man” Lailari, a retired US Air Force Foreign Area officer specializing in counterterrorism, irregular warfare and missile defence. Lailari says that it is time nations held PRC to account for the support it offers to various terrorist groups, including Hamas.

People’s Republic of China’s connection with the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by the Hamas has been a matter of speculation. Lailari alleges that in spite of Chinese denials of any involvement with Hamas’ attacks, there is enough evidence to take China to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for its support to terrorism. He says that it is not Iran, but PRC that is the hidden hand that green-signalled Hamas’ attack on Israel, the evidence of which goes beyond the circumstantial.

How Resilient Is China’s ‘World’s Factory’ To Supply Chain Shifts? – Analysis

Marina Yue Zhang

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The Yiwu International Trade Market in Zhejiang, China, is a sprawling 4 million square metre housing complex over 75,000 shops. As the 2024 Paris Olympics approach, it has been a hive of international trade, with merchants rushing to fulfil Olympic-related orders.

The market is currently abuzz with French-themed products catering to the Olympic fever. Yiwu’s exports to France soared by 42 per cent in the first two months of 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching nearly 75 million euros. Sports goods exports surged by 70 per cent. This reflects China’s robust manufacturing capabilities and pivotal role in global supply chains.

Most products traded in Yiwu’s market belong to labour-intensive light industries, such as textiles and consumer goods manufacturing. In 2023, these products accounted for over 40 per cent of Yiwu’s export value and 52 per cent of its export growth. Despite global supply chains shifting towards countries like Vietnam, the share of labour-intensive goods in China’s total exports has only slightly decreased, from 18 per cent in late 2017 to17 per cent in 2023.

China an ‘epoch-defining challenge,’ new UK spy boss warns

TOM BRISTOW

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Britain’s top cyber spy warned that China represents an “epoch-defining challenge” and accused it of seeking to undermine international norms in her first major speech on Tuesday.

Anne Keast-Butler, director of U.K. signals intelligence agency GCHQ, said responding to China was the spy agency’s “top priority.”

The country has been blamed for a string of cyberattacks on British institutions, including the Electoral Commission, elected politicians and its armed forces.

“Russia and Iran pose immediate threats. But China is the epoch-defining challenge,” Keast-Butler said.

China’s purported ‘drone carrier’ could be used for testing, shows PLA ‘learning’ mindset: Analysts

COLIN CLARK

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China has produced what experts say could be a small carrier dedicated to drones at the shipyard of Jiangsu Dayang Marine, a development that, if confirmed, would demonstrate what one PRC military analyst called the Chinese military’s “real ability to be flexible and innovative.”

The ship was revealed this week in a report by Naval News based on analysis by John Michael Dahm, a senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and a former US Navy intelligence officer. It is a catamaran, hardly a conventional choice for any kind of aircraft carrier, and Dahm conceded in an email to Breaking Defense that until the ship “is complete and operational, we probably won’t know its true purpose.”

But he also said that if it is a drone carrier — as his analysis concludes — the vessel “will allow the PLA Navy Blue Force to launch and recover fixed-wing drones at sea instead of the helicopter drones we’ve seen launched from ships thus far. The ship may contribute to test and evaluation of fixed-wing drone operations. This may support the eventual integration of drones onboard China’s new Type 075 Yushen-class amphibious assault ship.”

China's 5 Biggest Military Advantages

Michael Muir

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In March 1999, Admiral Dennis C. Blair testified before Congress that China was not a serious threat to the United States. He claimed that it would be “several years” before the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could mount a serious challenge to the United States military.

A lot can happen in a quarter century and it’s clear that the Chinese military has made some considerable strides forward in recent years. In an address to the National Congress in 2017, Xi Jinping outlined his vision for a new era of Chinese strength. Among his policy goals was to develop a world-class military by 2035. This article will look at where the PLA has made the most progress and assess five of China’s key military advantages.

Without firing a shot: China focuses on non-military ways to take Taiwan, reports warn

Bill Gertz

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China is engaged in information warfare across multiple sectors of Taiwan and plans a takeover of the self-ruled island through political coercion and cyber spying influence operations, with military force a key option, according to two new think tank reports.

China’s military is playing a central role behind aggressive activities that seek what Chinese President Xi Jinping has called the “complete reunification” of Taiwan as a historic mission the Chinese Communist Party, states a report by analysts from the intelligence contractor Booz Allen Hamilton. The report warns that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan either through cyber and influence operation or full-scale military action poses an “unacceptable risk” to global security.

GCHQ boss says China's 'genuine' cyber threat 'weakens security of internet for all'

Mickey Carroll

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GCHQ now "devotes more resource to China than any other single mission," according to the intelligence agency's director, Anne Keast-Butler.

China poses an "epoch-defining challenge" to the UK, she said at CyberUK, the National Cyber Security Centre's conference in Birmingham.

Last week, Sky News discovered China had hacked the Ministry of Defence's payroll system and in March, Chinese hackers were accused of stealing data about UK voters from the Electoral Commission.

After news about last week's attack, China's foreign ministry said it "firmly opposes and fights all forms of cyber attacks" and "rejects the use of this issue politically to smear other countries".

However, the UK's cyber security leaders are clear.

Saudi Arabia Leads Offers To Help Iran After Crash Of Helicopter Carrying President Raisi

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Saudi Arabia expressed its support for Iran and said it was ready to provide any assistance required after a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed on Sunday.

The Foreign Ministry said the Kingdom was following reports about the crash with “great concern.”

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government said in a statement it had instructed its interior ministry, the Red Crescent and other relevant bodies to offer help to neighboring Iran in the search mission.

Iranian search and rescue teams were scouring a fog-shrouded mountainside after the helicopter carrying the president and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian went missing in an “accident” on Sunday, state media said.

Fears grew for Raisi after contact was lost with the helicopter carrying him in East Azerbaijan province, reports said.

Raisi was visiting the province where he inaugurated a dam project together with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, on the border between the two countries.

Ebrahim Raisi, The Hard-Line Iranian President Tipped As Next Supreme Leader – Analysis

Kian Sharifi

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Ebrahim Raisi, the ultraconservative Iranian president, is widely tipped to become the country’s next supreme leader.

Raisi, a longtime protege of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a former judicial chief who also allegedly played a role in one of the darkest chapters of the Islamic republic.

On May 19, a helicopter carrying Raisi crashed in Iran’s mountainous northwest on its way back from a visit to the border with Azerbaijan. His fate was not immediately clear.

As president, the hard-line cleric has overseen the brutal suppression of the unprecedented monthslong antiestablishment protests that erupted in 2022 and the tightening of the country’s morality laws.

Hundreds were killed and thousands arrested as government forces crushed the demonstrations, one of the biggest challenges to the country’s clerical rulers in decades. Raisi defended the bloody crackdown and accused foreign powers and opposition groups of instigating the unrest.

Ukraine Struggles To Hold Eastern Front As Russians Advance On Cities

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Even if Ukrainian forces can hold out until all the American ammunition and weapons get through to the front, the challenge ahead remains daunting, according to many of those fighting.

For Ukrainian gun commander Oleksandr Kozachenko, the long-awaited US ammunition can’t come fast enough as he and his comrades struggle to hold off relentless Russian attacks.

His unit’s US-supplied M777 howitzer, which once hurled 100 shells a day at the encroaching enemy, is now often reduced to fewer than 10.

“It’s a luxury if we can fire 30 shells.”

America says it’s rushing ammunition and weapons to Ukraine following the delayed approval of a $61 billion aid package by Congress last month. As of early May, though, two artillery units visited by Reuters on the eastern frontline said they were still waiting for a boost in deliveries and operating at a fraction of the rate they need to hold back the Russians.

The Dangers of an Ungovernable Gaza

Dana Stroul

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In early April, in the seventh month of Israel’s campaign to dismantle Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew the majority of its ground troops from the Gaza Strip, leaving just one brigade in the central part. This included pulling Israeli forces out of Khan Younis, the sprawling area in southern Gaza below which U.S. intelligence officials believe Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is hiding in an extensive tunnel network. In explaining the decision to pull these soldiers out, Israeli officials pointed to their military campaign’s success in destroying 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions. Israeli forces needed time to rest before returning to Rafah in the southernmost part of Gaza to dismantle the four Hamas battalions based there. For several weeks, daily life in Gaza was not dominated by continuous airstrikes and ground forces’ maneuvering. But neither humanitarian groups nor civilians knew where to look for basic security, for no one is running Gaza.

That is why some UN officials now refer to Gaza as “Mogadishu on the Mediterranean.” In some areas, remnants of Hamas-run ministries are providing services or diverting humanitarian aid, while in others criminal networks loot and then distribute it. Elsewhere, communities and humanitarian groups are contracting with armed groups other than Hamas to provide security. Gaza is an ungoverned space with parallel and competing authority structures taking root. The conditions for long-term instability have already emerged.

Time To Deploy Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons at Sea

Joe Varner

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The U.S. needs to break out of its post-Cold War posture and move to a warfighting doctrine with forward deployed theatre level or tactical nuclear weapons on warships to deter China and others.

The last decade has seen China threaten its Indo-Pacific neighbors with violence and claims on their territory including U.S. allies South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Many expect China to try and seize Taiwan by force of arms by 2027. Taiwan’s offshore front-line positions near the Chinese coast and the Pratas are under constant threat of attack and seizure. Beijing routinely pushes Japan on the Senkaku Islands and now has started with so-called ancient claims on Okinawa. The last few years have seen China force its way into the Philippines exclusive economic zone to try and seize territories it claims like Thitu inhabited by Philippine citizens.

Recent articles and reporting have focused on the threat posed to the U.S. and its allies by China and its growing military power. We have witnessed the more than doubling of China’s nuclear warheads, its large and diverse missile force, growth of the Chinese navy to 355 warships, and Beijing’s program to catch up to the U.S. on quality and quantity of fighter aircraft. The U.S. is concerned on several levels by the challenge posed by Chinese military forces in the Indo-Pacific, particularly their dual-capable cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missile forces, and Beijing’s more self-interested and aggressive intentions. .

Which Makes Better Soldiers: DEI or Assimilation?

Maj. Gen. Joe Arbuckle (USA, Ret.)

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Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) is divisive, as it emphasizes differences based on race, ethnicity, biological sex, gender identities, etc., which is opposed to the time-tested, traditional military culture emphasizing unity, teamwork, selflessness, sacrifice, and assimilation into the warrior ethos.

May 1969, a commercial bus full of sleepy recruits stopped during darkness at Fort Ord, CA. Two Drill Instructors (DIs) jumped on the bus and started screaming, “get off my bus, you dirtbags, and line up outside.” A diverse assortment of now wide-awake young men lined up in four rows and then shuffled/marched to sterile appearing billets with a platoon of 50 recruits in each open bay, gray double-decker bunks with sheets and a wool blanket on both sides of an aisle running down the middle of the bay. They were awake until 0200 scrubbing the billet floors and latrine; up at 0530 the next day.

The next day they marched with DIs yelling commands, to the long quartermaster warehouse to be issued clothing and gear. But, first a stop at the barber building with a line of barbers ready to buzz hair off which they did quickly leaving about 1/4 inch on the top and almost none elsewhere.

Russia May Push Buffer Zone Into NATO Nation: Putin Ally

Rachel Dobkin

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Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia and ally of President Vladimir Putin, spoke of potentially creating a "sanitary zone" either on the border with or inside Poland.

On Friday, Ukraine hit fuel depots, oil facilities and a power station in southwestern Russia and Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula that Moscow has occupied since 2014. The Russian Defense Ministry said via Telegram on Friday that Moscow intercepted more than 100 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on Thursday night. The day before, Ukraine fired missiles that hit an airfield in Crimea. The drone strikes came after Russian forces advanced into northeastern Ukraine last week.

Medvedev, a former Russian president and prime minister, wrote in a Telegram post translated into English on Friday: "This is not the first time that President Putin has said that for a quiet life, our country will have to create a sanitary zone, within which the neo-Nazi regime will not be able to hit targets on the territory of Russia [including, of course, all the lands that have returned to our state]."

Army soldiers not impressed with Strykers outfitted with 50-kilowatt lasers, service official says

ASHLEY ROQUE

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Earlier this year the US Army sent four Stryker-mounted 50-kilowatt laser prototypes to the Middle East for soldiers to test out against aerial threats. Initial feedback is rolling in and it’s not overwhelmingly positive, according to Army acquisition head Doug Bush.

“What we’re finding is where the challenges are with directed energy at different power levels,” Bush told members of the Senate Appropriations airland subcommittee on Wednesday. “That [50-kilowatt] power level is proving challenging to incorporate into a vehicle that has to move around constantly — the heat dissipation, the amount of electronics, kind of the wear and tear of a vehicle in a tactical environment versus a fixed site.”

Dubbed the Directed Energy Maneuver Short-Range Air Defense (DE M-SHORAD), the service tasked Kord Technologies with integrating a 50-kilowatt class RTX laser onto a Stryker to down class one to three aerial drones and incoming rockets, artillery and mortars. In total, four prototypes were produced, and Breaking Defense first reported that all four were sent to the US Central Command (CENTCOM) region in February.