Indian Strategic Studies: 06/17/25

17 June 2025

Massive Stealth Flying Wing Emerges At Secretive Chinese Base

In an exclusive development regarding China’s rapidly accelerating next-generation air combat programs, we have just gotten our first glimpse of a very large, low-observable, flying-wing, long-endurance unmanned aircraft.

The image of the previously unseen aircraft sitting outside of an already intriguing hangar complex at an airfield notorious for advanced air combat programs comes to us from the Planet Labs archive. The image was taken on May 14, 2025, and just appeared in the database.

The photo shows China’s secretive test base near Malan in Xinjiang province, which is known to be on the leading edge of the country’s unmanned aircraft development efforts.

Specifically, the craft was parked outside of a sprawling new facility that was built very recently to the east of the base, connected to it by a very long taxiway leading to a security gate.PHOTO © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION

Construction of the installation began just over two years ago. The high-security site is very densely populated with hangars of various sizes. These include estimated (based on early construction satellite images) 70-meter, 50-meter, 20-meter, and 15-meter bays. The craft in question is sitting outside one of the largest bays. The low-slung, large hangars are reminiscent of the shelters for U.S. B-2 bombers at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri or infrastructure we see at the U.S. Air Force’s Plant 42 in Palmdale, California, associated with flying-wing aircraft. The smaller bays at Malan are a bit more of a puzzle.PHOTO © 2025 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION

It wasn’t previously apparent what this facility was intended to do, but now it seems clearer that it may be a testing base for China’s next generation air combat ecosystem, which would include aircraft of multiple sizes — from the H-20 stealth bomber, to large stealthy flying wing drones, the tri-engined J-36, to the J-XDS fighter, and of course, smaller tactical drones.

‘Not rely on post-facto narrative building with delegations’: Brahma Chellaney says Israel’s military ops a striking contrast to India’s

Noted geostrategist Brahma Chellaney compared the military operations of both India and Israel, and pointed how, when it comes to using force – always the last resort – it must be guided by a clarity of thought. He also said that military operations should be based on decisive actions and not “post-facto narrative-building” through roadshows or delegations of lawmakers.

Chellaney’s post is a remark on India’s decision to send delegations to foreign countries to talk about the Pahalgam attack, Operation Sindoor and the subsequent conflict between India and Pakistan. India targeted Pakistani air bases after which they reached out to New Delhi to talk about a possible ceasefire.

Nevertheless, Pakistan has been declaring its “victory” and how they destroyed many Indian jets, even though the evidence pointed otherwise.

“Israel’s population is just 10 million, while India has 1.4 billion people. Yet their latest military operations present a striking contrast. Israel decapitated Iran’s top military command through powerful preemptive strikes. In contrast, India launched its Operation Sindoor tentatively — after giving Pakistan 15 days’ advance notice. It initially targeted some terrorist camps but without first neutralising Pakistan’s air defences. That strategic oversight led to the loss of some Indian warplanes,” said Chellaney.

“Only then did the political leadership authorise the Air Force to strike Pakistani air defences and air bases. But just as the Indian military was gaining the upper hand, the operation was abruptly halted — only three days after it began,” he said. It was neither India nor Pakistan but US President Donald Trump who announced the ceasefire. He has, since, mentioned the US’ involvement to mediate multiple times – a claim that India refutes. India has said the ceasefire was agreed upon after both the neighbours had a talk.

Chellaney further stated, “Force should always be a last resort — but when used, it must be guided by strategic clarity. A military operation should aim for decisive results that speak for themselves — not rely on post-facto narrative-building through domestic roadshows or delegations of lawmakers dispatched abroad.”

Democracy Disfigured: India’s Political Devolution

Asim Ali

Nearly the entire opposition boycotted the consecration of the new Lok Sabha, or House of the People, dubbing it Modi’s “coronation.”

It was a familiar made-for-television spectacle, emblematic both of Modi’s leadership style as well as the state of Indian democracy.

The opposition’s boycott was prompted not just by the nakedly partisan tenor of the event but also a range of proximate grievances. These included the disqualification of several opposition leaders from the Lok Sabha and the bulldozing of controversial laws without debate.

“When the soul of democracy has been sucked out from the parliament, we find no value in a new building,” the joint opposition statement read.

Over the last decade, Modi has persistently trimmed the autonomy of every institution of representative democracy in India, subordinating them to a direct form of representation embodied in his personalistic leadership. The Modi government has zealously followed a distinctly autocratic checklist: arresting political opponents, including sitting chief ministers; weaponizing investigative and tax agencies; curbing dissent through sedition and anti-terror laws; cracking down on independent media and civil society organizations; and demonizing minorities.

Not even his own political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has been spared from Modi’s scythe. Once known for its collegial leadership and well-defined organizational structure, the party has now been reduced to a corporate-style electoral machine yoked to the writ of its domineering leader. The inauguration of the new Parliament thus marked the ultimate distillation of Modi’s claim to embody popular sovereignty – a spectacle conveying the dissolution of a parliamentary system built on the notion of “we the people” in favor of a plebiscitary leader calling out “me the people.”

Inside Pakistan’s War on Baloch Students

Dilshad Baluch

Late one March night, a group of Baloch students were startled by a forceful knock on the door of their shared flat in Islamabad’s I-10 sector. A number of men in plain clothes entered without warning or warrants. One of them instructed the others: “Humiliate these Baloch students and torture them like this.”

The harassment in Islamabad had been escalating for months. “They come late at night, enter our flat without permission, and make those remarks right in front of us,” said one student, whose name has been withheld for security reasons. “They follow us constantly in their Vigo vehicles, the kind everyone recognizes as used by state agencies. Whether we go to university or just out for tea, they follow us the entire way.”

He described one incident where two friends were followed from a café: “As soon as they reached our flat, the Vigo came right up to the building, then turned around and left.”

These are not just rare incidents. Many Baloch students living in cities like Islamabad and across Punjab face constant harassment, racial profiling, and state-led intimidation. For them, going to university has become a continuous struggle to stay safe and continue their education.

A Targeted Minority: Repression of Baloch Students Across Pakistan

Resource-rich Balochistan is home to the Baloch people, who have endured decades of political exclusion, economic hardship, and violent crackdowns by the Pakistani state. While Balochistan is widely known for enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, far less attention is given to how this repression has extended beyond its borders into classrooms, hostels, and city streets across Pakistan.

In Punjab and Islamabad, the country’s academic and administrative centers, Baloch students face systematic targeting under the guise of national security. Accused of harboring anti-state views or links to Baloch armed organizations, they endure constant surveillance, racial profiling, public harassment, false charges, and threats of abduction.

Sri Lanka’s Minorities Struggle For Voice In Sinhala-Buddhist Dominated Politics – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

Sri Lanka’s minority communities—Tamils, Muslims, and Malaiyaga Tamils—face persistent challenges in securing meaningful political representation within a system heavily influenced by the Sinhala-Buddhist majority, according to a report by the Minority Rights Group and Oxford Brookes University, led by Dr. Farah Mihlar. Despite experimenting with various strategies, these groups continue to grapple with systemic barriers, with effective representation remaining elusive, particularly for North-Eastern Tamils.

The report, Divided and Weakened: The Collapse of Minority Politics in Sri Lanka, highlights the structural disadvantages minorities face, whether their parties align with the government or remain in opposition. North-Eastern Tamils, who often advocate for federalism—a concept largely rejected by the Sinhalese majority—experience widespread disillusionment. In contrast, Muslims and Malaiyaga Tamils have achieved relatively greater success by adopting more flexible and pragmatic approaches, cooperating or confronting the majority based on specific issues.

Dr. Mihlar notes, “Minority politics in Sri Lanka is disintegrating, crushed by structural majoritarian nationalism and stunted by a lack of vision, identity, and leadership within minority parties.” A former Tamil militant, who transitioned to an elected MP in 1989, expressed frustration, stating, “No one gained by it; not a single MP has achieved anything. We have no other solution, we have no option, we have to do this politics.”

Majoritarian Nationalism and Political Marginalization

Since independence, majoritarian nationalism, embedded in state institutions like the military and civil service, has curtailed the effectiveness of minority representatives. This was particularly pronounced during the presidencies of Mahinda Rajapaksa (2005–2015) and Gotabaya Rajapaksa (2019–2022), periods marked by heightened Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism. The report alleges that strategies such as co-opting minority MPs, sowing division within their parties, and restricting their ability to serve their communities were employed to undermine minority representation.

Mainland China scientists build electronic war game for Taiwan and nearby waters

Stephen Chen

A PLA mobile electronic warfare platform deployed southeast of Taiwan activates its emitter, shattering the electromagnetic silence with powerful pulses, which are initially blocked by the island’s towering central mountain range.

But while the key eastern military bases are unaffected at first, gradually the signals navigate the complex terrain, reflecting like mirrors off slopes and scattering across rough surfaces.

Eventually, they cross the peaks to blanket the entire island and its surrounding waters. Signals in parts of eastern Taiwan could rival the strength of those in the west. Even distant Taipei detects disturbances, though some shielded valleys remain signal-free – potential hideouts that require vigilance.

This war game scenario is played out in an ultra-detailed simulation that for the first time covers a vast theatre spanning Taiwan and adjacent seas, modelling intricate landforms with nanosecond-level precision.

The simulation was created by an electromagnetic battlespace emulator built by a team of researchers led by professor Shao Shihai from the University of Electronic Science and Technology in Chengdu, the capital of the southwestern province of Sichuan.

“This method significantly improves computational speed while maintaining precision and high time-delay resolution,” they wrote in a peer-reviewed paper published by the Chinese-language Journal of Electronics & Information Technology in March.

“[It] fulfils the computational requirements for channel modelling in large-scale battlefield environments,” they added.

Building a New Market to Counter Chinese Mineral Market Manipulation

Gracelin Baskaran

With China recently imposing export restrictions on rare earth elements—leading to U.S. automakers to halt production due to supply shortages—one of the most urgent issues is how to establish reliable Western supplies of essential critical minerals. A major challenge to achieving mineral security is China’s manipulation of global markets, whereby Chinese companies flood the market with excess supply, driving prices down to levels that force mining operations in countries like the United States and Australia to shut down. This approach has not only exposed the United States and its allies to heightened supply vulnerabilities but also made it difficult for them to compete with China under current market conditions:Between May 2022 and May 2025, cobalt prices fell 59.5 percent from $82,000 per ton to $33,250 per ton. In 2023, Jervois opened the United States’ only cobalt mine in Idaho but was forced to close it within the same year due to collapsing prices.

Nickel prices experienced a dramatic decline of 73.1 percent, from $48,241 per ton in March 2022 to $13,847 per ton in May 2025. During this period, BHP closed its Nickel West operations and West Musgrave project in Australia, and Glencore shuttered its Koniambo Nickel SAS facility in New Caledonia, citing unprofitability. Today, Chinese firms in Indonesia hold a de facto monopoly.

Global lithium prices have fallen from 86.8 percent from $68,114 in December 2022 to below $10,000 by June 2025.

Prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide—the principal rare earth component in neodymium-iron-boron magnets—have fallen below $60 per kilogram. If prices stay below $60 per kilogram through 2030, approximately half of the projected supply originating outside of China is expected to become economically unviable. In fact, at this price point, only eight rare earth projects beyond China are expected to break even on direct production costs.

There is no sign that China will end its market manipulation. It is expected to continue leveraging its dominance to influence prices, restrict supply, and squeeze competitors, all of which undermine initiatives to diversify supply chains and ensure access to critical minerals. Adding to this challenge, projects outside China often need to promise higher investment returns to attract financing, whereas large Chinese state-owned companies can sustain operations at much lower—or even negative—profit margins.

Behind The Smiles In London: The Real Test Of US-China Diplomacy Begins Now – OpEd

Dr. Imran Khalid

“We made a great deal with China. We’re very happy with it.” So declared President Donald Trump in his familiar tone of triumphant ambiguity on June 11, fresh off what was touted as a breakthrough agreement to restore a trade truce between the United States and China. But if history has taught us anything, it is that “done deals” in the Trumpian lexicon tend to be either dangerously fragile or conveniently fungible.

The latest accord, emerging from two days of intense talks in London, follows an alarming spiral in trade tensions that had once again threatened to upend global markets and rekindle the tit-for-tat tariff warfare that haunted the latter years of Trump’s first term. According to Trump, China has committed to lifting its restrictions on the export of rare earths – materials critical to the global technology and defense sectors – while the U.S. has agreed to a calibrated rollback of punitive measures, including the threatened revocation of visas for Chinese students.

As ever, the devil is not just in the details, but in their implementation. Much like the May Geneva agreement that this deal purports to reinforce, the London framework is conditional, tentative, and, crucially, subject to “final approval” by both President Trump and President Xi Jinping. That qualifier alone renders the euphoria premature.

Still, to be charitable, the very fact that Washington and Beijing are speaking the language of dialogue rather than confrontation is an encouraging sign. Following a phone call between the two leaders earlier this month, there appears to be a renewed willingness – albeit under duress – to keep diplomacy afloat. For a world economy battered by uncertainty, this resumption of talks is, if nothing else, a stabilizing force.

Yet, Trump’s boastful framing – that the U.S. walks away with a 55% tariff shield while China gets 10% – betrays a zero-sum worldview that continues to inform his trade doctrine. The truth, however, is far less tidy. Tariffs have proved to be a double-edged sword, inflicting damage on American consumers, industries, and allies as much as they have squeezed Chinese exports. The World Bank’s recent downward revision of global growth forecasts points to tariffs and unpredictability as “significant headwinds,” underlining the global costs of such brinkmanship.

Rare Earth, Raw Power: How China Plays the Carrot and Stick Game of the Century

Xinyue Hu and Meng Kit Tang

Just as oil drove geopolitical tensions in the 20th century, rare earth elements could shape the rivalries of the 21st. These 17 metals – including the 15 lanthanides, plus scandium and yttrium – are essential to modern technologies, from smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines, radar systems, and fighter jets. They are the key enablers of the advanced technologies and military capabilities that underpin modern global power.

China accounts for approximately 60 percent of global rare earth raw material production, processes about 85 percent of the world’s output, and manufactures nearly 90 percent of the world’s rare earth magnets. It controls nearly all the refining capacity for heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, which are essential for high-performance magnets.

China dominates this sector not by chance, but thanks to a strategic effort spanning decades. Despite being a latecomer, China steadily overtook the United States. In the 1980s, the U.S. led rare earth production, primarily through the Mountain Pass mine in California. However, strict environmental regulations increased costs, leading to mine closures by the early 2000s. China capitalized on this opportunity by leveraging its relatively lax environmental regulations and extensive state subsidies, reducing its production costs and eventually surpassed the U.S.

By 2025, Beijing is more openly leveraging its control over rare earths, using them both as a stick to pressure geostrategic rivals like the U.S. and as a carrot to incentivize cooperation with states such as Malaysia.

China’s Geopolitical Playbook: Carrots and Sticks

China uses a two-pronged strategy to influence power politics, combining rewards and pressure in what is often called a “carrot and stick” approach. It offers technology transfers and access to resources to countries with relatively stable ties to Beijing, while enforcing export controls and other restrictions on its geostrategic competitors. Using rare earths to advance its geostrategic interests has proven to be relatively effective for China.

Fighting for Information: A Theory of Tactics for the Next Army

Benjamin Jensen

Next Army is a collaborative series by CSIS Futures Lab and the Modern War Institute launched in honor of the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday and the Army Transformation Initiative (ATI). The commentaries explore how emerging technologies, organizational reforms, and major shifts in the strategic environment will shape the force of 2040 and beyond.

In the future, the U.S. Army will dominate the air littorals through manned-unmanned teaming, algorithmic targeting, and distributed reconnaissance networks designed to win the fight for information and regain tempo in a contested battlespace.

The U.S. Army Transformation Initiative (ATI) should be anchored in a simple yet powerful idea: Whoever wins the fight for information wins the fight overall. Future combat won’t be about massing formations to penetrate defense lines—it will be about dislocating adversaries through sensor dominance, deception, and speed of decision. As the Army considers major cuts to air cavalry squadrons and legacy aviation elements, it must resist the urge to restructure without first reimagining how air-ground, manned-unmanned teams win the future fight for information. Along these lines, the Army should pair upgraded attack helicopters like AH-64s with enhanced capabilities like AESA radar, runway-independent armed drones like the Gray Eagle STOL, and AI-enabled systems like TITAN (Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node) to achieve decision advantage in the most contested part of the battlespace: the air littorals. To counter unmanned aerial systems (UAS), this modern day skirmisher force will need novel solutions, such as cannon-based air defenses, built for speed, flexibility, and fungibility.

The Real Threat From Iran

Kenneth M. Pollack

Last night, the government of Israel decided to roll the dice on a military solution to Iran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. Given the remarkable capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, the operation could do tremendous damage to the Iranian nuclear program. But then comes the hard part.

Iran has limited options to respond directly. The danger, however, is that Israel has opened a Pandora’s box: the worst Iranian response might also be the most likely—a decision to withdraw from its arms control commitments and build nuclear weapons in earnest. Containing those furies over the long term is likely to be the real challenge for both Israel and the United States. If the two parties fail, the Israeli gamble could ensure a nuclear-armed Iran rather than prevent one.

TEHRAN’S BAD OPTIONS

It’s very early in this latest battle between Israel and Iran, too soon to know how long the fighting will last or how much damage the Israelis will do. Still, Iran now faces some significant constraints on its ability to fight back, end, or even retaliate against the Israeli campaign.

Iran’s first problem is distance, and its second problem is Israel’s defenses. Because of both, Tehran has little ability to use its air force against Israel. What’s more, with roughly 700 miles of Iraq, Syria, and Jordan separating them, Iran cannot mount a ground attack against Israel—which would be suicidal against the far more competent Israeli army in any event. Consequently, if there is going to be a direct Iranian military retaliation, it will almost certainly be shouldered by Iran’s missile and drone forces, which have proved to be of limited capability against Israeli defenses.

‘Rising Lion’: Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program, Prepares for Retaliation

Latest DevelopmentsIDF Strikes Targets Across Iran: Israel launched multiple waves of strikes against Iranian targets associated with the regime’s nuclear program in the early hours of June 13. Announcing the operation, dubbed “Rising Lion,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as “a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival,” emphasizing that it “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” Netanyahu stressed his gratitude to President Donald Trump “for his steadfast stance,” adding “he said time and again, Iran must never have a nuclear weapon.”

Nuclear Program Struck, High-Level Figures Reportedly Targeted: Netanyahu described a comprehensive set of targets struck during the operation, including “the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponization program, Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran’s leading nuclear scientists working on the Iranian bomb,” and “the heart of Iran’s ballistic missile program.” Israel also reportedly eliminated the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, in a strike on the IRGC’s headquarters in Tehran. Several other high-level Iranian military leaders and top nuclear scientists, including Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, are believed by Israel to have been eliminated in the opening wave of strikes against the Islamic Republic.

Israel Prepares for Response: Air raid sirens sounded throughout Israel as the IDF announced an “immediate change in the Home Front Command’s defense policy.” Israelis in all parts of the country were told to limit themselves only to essential activities and not attend schools and workplaces, with the exception of essential businesses and gatherings. Following the strikes, the U.S. State Department directed all U.S. government employees in Israel and their families to shelter in place until further notice.

FDD Expert Response

“This Israeli attack couldn’t have happened without full coordination between the United States and Israel. The days ahead carry real risk — but the cost of inaction was far greater. Israel did what had to be done: defend itself, the West, and ultimately the Iranian people from the genocidal ambitions of the mullahs. Nuclear talks were heading to collapse under Tehran’s defiance, and sanctions alone couldn’t stop Iran’s race toward multiple nuclear weapons.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO

Iran launches missiles at Israel, and some hit Tel Aviv, as Israel attacks Iranian nuclear sites and commanders

Joe Walsh, Haley Ott, Tucker Reals, Kerry Breen

Warning sirens sounded across Israel on Friday as Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles in a retaliatory attack after Israel launched overnight airstrikes. A second round of missiles targeted Israel a few hours later. Some made it through Israel's missile defense system, causing damage and injuries, though the full extent of the damage is not yet clear.

A little after 4:30 a.m. Saturday local time, the Israel Defense Forces wrote on social media that "Israelis are currently running for shelter in northern Israel as sirens sound due to another missile launch from Iran." It was not immediately clear if this marked a third round of missiles or was still part of the second wave.

Video and photos show a number of buildings damaged or on fire. The IDF reported that 21 people had been injured and two were in serious condition.

Dozens more missiles came in the next wave, and again the IDF said some, but not all, were intercepted. "Search and Rescue forces are currently operating in a number of locations across the country in which reports of fallen projectiles were received," the military said.

Israeli troops evacuate residents from damaged buildings following Iran's retaliatory missile strikes against Israel, which destroyed numerous buildings and damaged vehicles at the Ramat Gan area of Tel Aviv,l on June 14, 2025.SAEED QAQ/ANADOLU VIA GETTY IMAGES

A U.S. official and a White House official confirmed to CBS News that the United States helped Israel intercept Iranian missiles.

During the strikes, U.S. troops at two bases in the Middle East were ordered into bunkers. Troops at Union III in the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, and Al-Tanf Garrison in Syria spent about an hour in the bunkers, CBS News confirmed.

The retaliatory action from Iran came after Israel launched over 200 airstrikes on Iran, continuing a major operation that began overnight, IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Friday. Israel's airstrikes are continuing, Defrin said.

Middle East on Edge After Israeli Strikes Derail Nuclear Talks

Mona Yacoubian

On June 13, Israel launched widespread strikes against Iran. They hit military bases, nuclear sites, and residential buildings, assassinating senior Iranian officials and scientists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks would continue for “as many days as it takes to remove the threat” Iran poses to Israel. The attacks came days before U.S. and Iranian negotiators planned to meet for a sixth round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. officials denied playing any role in the strikes, and President Trump urged Iran to “make a deal,” warning that more attacks would be “even more brutal.”

Q1: Why did Israel attack Iran now?

A1: While Israel has been planning this attack for months, a confluence of factors likely led to its decision to act last night. Israel’s mounting fears regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, coupled with its assessment of a closing window of opportunity to strike Iranian nuclear targets, likely played into the timing of the Israeli attack. Israeli strikes on Iran last October significantly degraded Iran’s missile defenses, and Israel’s decimation of the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah eroded Iran’s second-strike capabilities. Compounding concerns, for the first time in 20 years, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a resolution yesterday citing Iran’s noncompliance with nuclear non-proliferation. Iran angrily responded that it would build an additional enrichment site. Finally, the United States was about to engage in a sixth round of indirect talks with Iran in pursuit of a nuclear deal. Israel has long expressed its skepticism over the negotiations, fearing that Iran was merely buying time. Last night’s strikes have likely derailed those talks.

Q2: What options does Iran have to respond in the short and long term?

A2: Iran’s short-term options will depend on how much damage Iran sustained in this first round of Israeli strikes. As of this writing, Tehran has launched drone strikes on Israel. It is likely to launch ballistic missiles as well. Iran has also vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region; however, that would draw the United States into the conflict, dramatically increasing the risks to Iran. Iran’s long-term strategy is currently less clear. Iran’s military leadership has been decapitated in the strikes, likely impacting its longer-term planning. Among the more extreme options, Iran could opt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point that would imperil global energy trade and lead to skyrocketing oil prices. However, Tehran is unlikely to make this move as it would undermine its own oil trade and provoke Gulf Arabs at a time when their ties had been warming.

What to Know About the Israeli Strike on Iran

Daniel Byman

In a wave of attacks, the Israeli military struck the Natanz nuclear facility, military bases, and other targets in Iran, and also assassinated Iran’s three top military leaders among many other senior military officials and several nuclear scientists. Israel’s military strikes are likely to set back Iran’s nuclear program, but parts of the program will remain intact to varying degrees, and Iran will seek to retaliate. The resulting mess might lead the United States to become involved, despite the Trump administration’s desire to avoid attacking Iran.

Iran has had an active nuclear program for decades, and in recent years, the country has appeared closer than ever to achieving a nuclear weapon. While Tehran’s progress was once sporadic, it has steadily developed its enrichment facilities and other nuclear weapon components. In 2015, the Obama administration negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which froze the program, but President Trump withdrew from it in 2018, declaring it a “bad deal.” Since then, Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent, a high level from which the country could easily reach the 90 percent level needed for weapons-grade material.

Israel has long seen an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat, but despite repeated warnings, for many years it avoided striking Iran for several reasons. Benjamin Netanyahu, though often talking tough, was cautious regarding the use of military force during most of his time as prime minister. Before the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, a conflict between the two countries seemed to have several powerful deterrents:a Hezbollah response that would involve massive rocket and missile salvos on Israel;

direct Iranian retaliation, including missile and drone strikes from its own arsenals;

the possibility that other Iranian proxies in the region, such as Hamas, would join in coordinated attacks;

and the danger that Tehran could resort to international terrorism targeting U.S. and Israeli interests.

The United States consistently opposed a strike as well, doubting Israel’s ability to carry it out alone and unwilling to commit U.S. forces to support such an operation. U.S. leaders also feared that a strike would destabilize the Middle East and lead Iran to redouble its efforts to seek a nuclear weapon.

Israel-Iran Crisis: UN Chief Urges Calm After Overnight Strikes

UN News

Secretary-General António Guterres condemned Israeli strikes in Iran late Thursday evening, urging ‘maximum restraint’ from Member States. The head of the UN-backed atomic watchdog also highlighted the risk of a wider conflict.

Any military escalation in the Middle East should be censured, the UN chief said in a short statement issued by his spokesperson’s office.

“He is particularly concerned by Israeli attacks on nuclear installations in Iran while talks between Iran and the United States on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme are underway,” said Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General.

In an update on Friday, the head of the UN-backed atomic watchdog announced that the Iranian authorities had confirmed that the Natanz enrichment site had been “impacted” without affecting existing radiation levels.

The Iranian nuclear safety authorities also reported that the Esfahan and Fordow sites had not been impacted.

“This development is deeply concerning,” said Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“I have repeatedly stated that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances, as it could harm both people and the environment. Such attacks have serious implications for nuclear safety, security and safeguards, as well as regional and international peace and security.”

According to reports, the Israeli military attacks targeted Iran’s nuclear programme at various sites across the country late Thursday.

Iranian media reported the death of Hossein Salami, chief of the country’s Revolutionary Guards, along with nuclear scientists.

The development comes as the United States was scheduled to begin a fresh round of negotiations with Tehran on Saturday in Oman. Israeli schools closed on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory strikes by Iran, with reports that around 100 drones had been launched towards Israel in the early hours.

Israel Just Struck Iran’s Largest Nuclear Facility. Here’s What We Know So Far.

Peter Suciu

The attack occurred just days before planned nuclear negotiations in Oman on Sunday, which were to address international concerns over the country’s nuclear capabilities and overall ambitions.

44 years ago this month, Israel launched Operation Opera, a daring and successful raid on a heavily defended Iraqi nuclear facility. Meticulous preparation was made, including selecting the best pilots and flying extensive rehearsals against a full-scale mockup of the facility inside Israel.

At that time, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) had only recently acquired the American-built F-15 Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon jets, but each was deemed to be more than suitable to carry out such a long-range mission. Six Eagles provided cover for eight Fighting Falcons, each armed with two 1,000-kg (2,205-lb) bombs. During the mission, the aircraft flew only a few feet over the ground across unpopulated stretches of Jordan and Saudi Arabia to avoid radar detection. Less than 90 minutes after takeoff, the fighters reached their target, Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. All 16 bombs struck the facility, destroying it completely and setting back Saddam Hussein’s nuclear aspirations by a decade.

This was not the last time that IAF would carry out a daring mission to disable a regional rival’s nuclear program. In 2007, a similar mission saw the destruction of Syria’s unfinished nuclear reactor. And early on Friday morning, Israel carried out a massive attack against Iran, striking its Natanz nuclear facility, destroying missile sites, and assassinating dozens of high-profile military officers.

“Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation aimed at dismantling the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced shortly after the strikes took place. “This operation will continue for as long as necessary to eliminate this danger.”

What to Know About Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion”

Israel and Iran exchange attacks; Trump vetoes plan to target Khamenei, US officials say

Steve Holland, Maayan Lubell and Parisa Hafezi

In Washington, two U.S. officials told Reuters that Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“Have the Iranians killed an American yet? No. Until they do we’re not even talking about going after the political leadership,” said one of the sources, a senior U.S. administration official.

In Israel, rescue teams combed through rubble of residential buildings destroyed by Iranian missiles, using sniffer dogs and heavy excavators to look for survivors after at least 10 people, including children, were killed, raising the two-day toll to 13.

Sirens rang out across the country after 4 p.m. on Sunday in the first such daylight alert, and fresh explosions could be heard in Tel Aviv.

In Iran, images from the capital showed the night sky lit up by a huge blaze at a fuel depot after Israel began strikes against Iran’s oil and gas sector – raising the stakes for the global economy and the functioning of the Iranian state.

Iran has not given a full death toll but said 78 people were killed on Friday and scores more have died since, including in a single attack that killed 60 on Saturday, half of them children, in a 14-storey apartment block flattened in Tehran.

Trump said the conflict – which has raised fears of a wider conflagration – could be ended easily, while also warning Iran that the U.S. could get involved if Iran hits any American targets.

When asked about the Reuters report on a plan to kill Khamenei, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday: “There’s so many false reports of conversations that never happened, and I’m not going to get into that.”

“We do what we need to do,” he told Fox’s “Special Report With Bret Baier.”

Israel’s June 12/13 Strike on Iran May Mark Turning Point in Middle East History

Richard (R.C.) Porter

Israel’s June 12/13 military strike on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure, as well as the targeted killing of the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and six of Iran’s top nuclear scientists is a devastating blow to Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon. But, this strike, known as “Operation Lion Rising“, may have much broader and far-reaching implications for the future of the Middle East. First, some observations on the strike.

Israel’s exploding pager operation against Hezbollah, Ukraine’s ingenious deep penetration drone strike on Russia’s nuclear bomber force, and now Israel’s Operation Lion Rising, each show how warfare is changing, yet also remaining the same. New and novel uses of drones on the battlefield is revolutionizing and transforming warfare as we used to know it. Indeed, it is estimated that 70 percent of the military casualties in the Russian-Ukraine War have been conducted with drones and autonomous systems. As Bob Dylan once sang, “Times, are a changin.” But, each of these operations also demonstrated that well-placed human intelligence, or HUMINT, operatives remain a precious, invaluable commodity that must be nurtured and protected by a bodyguard of lies.

How valuable was Israel’s Mossad in supporting Operation Rising Lion? We will never know publicly. Nonetheless, it is clear from open-source reporting that good old-fashioned HUMINT was a key part of Israel’s strike, much like it was for Israel’s exploding pager operation. It is likely that Israel’s 12/13 June strikes against Iran took years of elaborate planning, coupled with the recruitment and training of human spies deep inside Iran to carry out the operation. Likewise, it likely took many months and years for Mossad to smuggled vehicles, weapons, and drones into Iran to set the stage for last night’s strike. As Napoleon Bonaparte once said, “One well-placed spy is worth two battalions.” Now, one or two, or three well placed spies may prevent a wider war or save a city. Drones are having their moment in the sun, but good old-fashioned HUMINT remains paramount. Thumbs up to Mossad.

Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the U.S.-Israel hammering of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, also altered the battlespace to Israel’s advantage. Iran losing its proxies and its Russian benefactors in Syria further weakened the hand of Iran’s mullahs.

Next Army: Envisioning the U.S. Army at 250 and Beyond

As the U.S. Army nears its 250th birthday, a new revolution in land power is underway. Next Army—a CSIS Futures Lab and Modern War Institute series—explores how AI, drones, and doctrinal shifts are transforming the battlefield for the age of agentic warfare.

As the U.S. Army approaches its 250th anniversary, a generational transformation is underway. Next Army, a CSIS Futures Lab project, examines how technological disruption, evolving threat environments, and a tradition of institutional innovation are reshaping the character of land power. The Army is on the cusp of its next doctrinal revolution—one that may prove as significant as Emory Upton’s post-Civil War reforms, Donn Starry’s AirLand Battle concept, or Gordon Sullivan’s push into information-age warfare.

The Army of tomorrow will wage agentic warfare, powered by ubiquitous sensor networks, AI, and autonomous systems. Uncrewed aerial systems—ranging from nano-drones to loitering munitions—will saturate the battlespace, turning tactical maneuver into a contest of data and deception. Swarming drones will reconnoiter, jam, and strike, while AI-enabled edge computing will help small units localize decision-making at machine speed. Instead of sprawling command posts layered in staff officers, expect lean, mobile teams working through cloud-native kill webs and AI agents to deliver precision effects across domains.

At the center of this future is the land domain—not just terrain to be held or crossed, but a critical connective tissue linking cyber, space, and fires into a unified campaign. The Next Army will be smaller, smarter, and more networked, with humans and machines collaborating in complex adaptive systems to out cycle adversaries.

Yet even amid such radical change, the Army remains grounded in a core principle: it is a learning organization. From George Washington’s pioneering use of vaccines to counter smallpox and Sergeant Clubbin’s hedgerow clippers during the Battle of Normandy to Chief of Staff Randy George’s experimental Transforming in Contact (TiC) brigades, the Army has long adapted through experimentation. Today, initiatives like Project Convergence push this legacy forward—testing new concepts in real-time, high-risk environments.

Boko Haram, ISWAP Weaponizing TikTok – Analysis

Africa Defense Forum

There’s a new front in the Lake Chad region’s war against terrorism — the online video platform TikTok.

Terrorist groups have long weaponized social media worldwide for recruitment, financing and communication. In the Lake Chad Basin, where a violent extremist insurgency has raged since 2009, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have taken to TikTok, the Chinese-developed video platform known as much for its security vulnerabilities as its popularity with young people.

After months of gains by Nigerian security forces, April saw both groups resurgent with deadly attacks throughout Borno State. At least 100 people were killed, as the state governor complained of being overrun.

That same month, Agence France-Presse reviewed easily accessible videos on TikTok in which “apparent jihadists and their boosters were flaunting rifles, grenades and stacks of cash.”

Security analyst Bulama Bukarti, a senior fellow with the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, warned that ISWAP and Boko Haram are growing in popularity on TikTok.

“Right now, when you go on TikTok, you will see Boko Haram members’ accounts,” he said in an April 20 interview with Channels Television. “They host live programs and live shows where they propagate Boko Haram’s ideology. They justify the group’s violence, which they do in the Hausa language. They field questions from the audience and answer comments that are written.

“Even this week, there was a Boko Haram member who posted a 10-minute video on TikTok attacking me for speaking up against the escalating violence of the group.”

Bukarti said the group is “building a disturbing sense of virtual community.”

As Russia Plans to Strike Kyiv, Here’s What’s in Its Missile Arsenal

Harrison Kass

The Russians have an impressive missile array—effective for both strategic and tactical attacks, in either conventional or nuclear configurations.

Russia’s recent attack against Kyiv—intended as retaliation for Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb,” a dramatic drone attack on poorly protected airfields deep inside Russia’s interior—was executed with a variety of drones and missiles. That Russia should employ a variety of missiles in the attack is no surprise: the Kremlin possesses one of the world’s most extensive and diverse missile arsenals. In evaluating how to strike Kyiv, Russia has a full spectrum of options, with everything from short-range tactical missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Surveying the Russian Missile Arsenal

When people consider the Russian missile threat, they likely recall the Cold War and the prospect of long-range ICBMs, launched from Russia, striking targets within America. Indeed, the ICBM comprises the backbone of Russia’s strategic nuclear force, with a range of many thousands of kilometers.

Russia has multiple ICBM options, including the RS-24 Yard, a mobile or silo-based MIRV capable ICBM with an 11,000-km range; the RS-28 Sarmat, a heavy ICBM designed to evade missile defense, with an 18,000-km range; and the Topol-M, a single warhead, road-mobile or silo-based ICBM with an 11,000-km range. More impressive still is the Avangard “Hypersonic Glide Vehicle” (HGV), which can be mounted on existing ICBMs to achieve greater speeds.

Russia also has two Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs)—another fixture of American Cold War paranoia, as depicted in The Hunt for Red October. The two Russian SLBMs are the R-29RMU/RMU2, used on the Delta IV-class submarine and the RSM-56 Bulava, deployed on the Borei-class submarine. The two SLBMs have ranges in excess of 8,000 km (and up to 12,000 km in the case of the R-29RMU).

Apple’s AI Strategy Faces Growing Doubts – Analysis

Xia Ri

Apple recently hosted WWDC25, its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. As one of the most anticipated tech events each year, WWDC has long served as a key stage for Apple to unveil its latest technologies and innovations. In 2023, the company debuted the Vision Pro; in 2024, it made headlines with the introduction of Apple Intelligence, its AI system. A major question for WWDC25 is, can Apple truly redefine what we expect from AI?

It turns out that the outcome did not bring many surprises. As many in the industry had predicted, Apple’s AI-related announcements were not particularly groundbreaking. The long-awaited upgrade to Siri has yet to materialize. Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering, explained that more time is needed for the technology to meet the company’s standards. As for the new features introduced, they were relatively modest. While Apple did unveil tools like real-time translation and visual intelligence, such functions are already common in products from other tech companies. Moreover, Apple’s real-time translation currently supports only a limited number of languages, such as English, French, and German.

All in all, Apple’s shortcomings in AI development are closely tied to its overall AI strategy.

ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan pointed out that AI is not just a mere concept but a complex strategic issue. If it is done right, all other things will fall into place; otherwise, all efforts will be in vain. As things stand, at this critical moment, Apple seems to have taken the wrong path. In 2024, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway cut its Apple stake by 67% over the course of the year, and this certainly reflects the growing skepticism from the capital markets. Since the beginning of 2025, Apple’s stock has dropped more than 20%, making it the worst performer among the “Big Seven” tech giants.

A year ago, Apple announced the launch of Apple Intelligence as its response to the wave of complex chatbots and systems sparked by ChatGPT and the rise of generative AI. Analysts pointed out that Apple’s user base of over one billion iPhones, its wealth of on-device data, and its custom-designed silicon chips positioned the company to become a leader in the AI field. However, a year later, its performance in AI continues to face widespread skepticism. Apple Intelligence has fallen short of expectations, while OpenAI, Google, and Meta have continued to make significant progress with the release of new generative AI models.

How Current Affairs Podcasts Are Filling The Cracks In Mainstream News Reporting – Analysis

Damon Orion

Public affairs podcasts are an antidote to short-form news consumption and soundbite-oriented cable news broadcasts.

According to the Pew Research Center, more than half of Americans used social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and X as news sources in 2024 despite the reported proliferation of misinformation and voter manipulation on these online sites.

Meanwhile, another 2024 Pew Research Center survey found that 63 percent of American teenagers got their news from TikTok. The study also stated that in four years, the percentage of adults who regularly turned to TikTok for news increased by five times.

“With its short-form video content, TikTok provides the ideal platform for both misinformation and disinformation to pass as credible, in part because content creators’ popularity may be misinterpreted as expertise, even where it doesn’t exist,” a 2023 blog from Capital Technology University’s website stated.

In a 2024 article that documented waning public interest in cable news outlets like CNN and MSNBC, the libertarian magazine Reason noted that podcasts “have gone the opposite direction” from short-form information blasts on platforms like TikTok and YouTube by offering “lengthy, discursive interviews that let subjects speak uninterrupted for minutes at a time and conversations that flow more naturally—a near-impossibility in the tightly paced, commercial-bounded programming blocks of cable news programming.”

Podcasts are increasingly becoming popular among Americans, with “Comedy, entertainment, and politics… [being] at the top of the list of topics that podcast listeners say they regularly listen to,” according to a 2023 report by the Pew Research Center. The report further points out that those who turn to podcasts for news see them as more trusted sources than other platforms.

“You can’t get into a topic and cover it in five minutes,” notes Deborah “Arnie” Arnesen, the host of the public affairs podcast “The Attitude with Arnie Arnesen.” She observes that podcasts allow deeper dives in a single episode and enable reporters to devote multiple episodes to one issue.

Army moving on from MFEW aerial jammer, embracing backpack as ground-based solution

Mark Pomerleau

After almost a decade in the making, the Army is pivoting from its airborne electronic jammer, among other changes to the service’s electronic warfare offerings, according to a top official.

The service has decided to move on from the current Multi-Function Electronic Warfare Air Large (MFEW-AL) platform and approach. MFEW is the Army’s only airborne electronic warfare — with limited cyber — capability organic to combat aviation brigades to support maneuver commanders on the ground. The Lockheed Martin-made technology is a pod-mounted capability on a MQ-1C Gray Eagle drone, though officials have noted it was designed to be platform agnostic — provided the platform had the right power requirements.

The Army began developing the requirements and acquisition effort for MFEW over 10 years ago, awarding Lockheed the contract in 2019. The program has faced steep challenges for years with the department zeroing out procurement funding in its fiscal year 2022 budget. Following that decision, Army leaders sought to demonstrate that the service could make the system work in a variety of environments, especially considering the persistent need for aerial electronic attack.

Officials continued to maintain that following the zeroing out, the Army was making progress and the technology would be a critical enabler for multi-domain operations, even projecting it would equip the first unit with it in fiscal 2026 following initial operational test and evaluation.

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The Army now wants to look at alternatives, either from the other services or the commercial sector, pivoting away from the MFEW platform as it exists currently, Brig. Gen. Wayne “Ed” Barker, program executive officer for intelligence, electronic warfare and sensors, said in a series of interviews.

Barker and his team briefed the changes to Congress last week.

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