‘It’s India’s Great Slowdown, economy seems headed for ICU’: Arvind Subramanian

Source Link

Former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has said that the Indian economy is currently experiencing a “second wave” of the Twin Balance Sheet (TBS) crisis, which is behind what he terms as a “Great Slowdown”.

“Clearly, this is not an ordinary slowdown. It is India’s Great Slowdown, where the economy seems headed for the intensive care unit,” Subramanian has said in a draft working paper of the Harvard University’s Centre for International Development.

Subramanian had flagged the TBS problem — of debts accumulated by private corporates becoming non-performing assets (NPA) of banks — back in December 2014, while he was CEA to the Narendra Modi government. In his new paper co-authored with the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s India office Josh Felman, Subramanian, who now teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School, has made a distinction between the original TBS and “TBS-2”.

China grips Sri Lanka with artificial island off Colombo

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COLOMBO -- China, no stranger to building islands, has finished one off the coast of Colombo that gives Sri Lanka, a strategically located South Asian nation, the potential of erecting a futuristic business hub.

Billed as Port City Colombo, the 269 hectares of land reclaimed off the coast of Sri Lanka's largest city was officially declared part of the country last weekend. The night sky above Colombo's coast lit up with fireworks to mark the moment this Chinese-led venture was formally able to begin attracting foreign investors.

Seasoned observers reckon the island will further deepen China's economic ties with debt-strapped Sri Lanka, where India, the U.S. and Japan are also vying for influence.

But it was China that provided the $1.4 billion investment to dredge the sea and build the artificial island. It is the largest foreign direct investment project ever undertaken in Sri Lanka.

No, China Is Not as Strong as It Seems

by Milton Ezrati
Source Link

American opinion has moved away from its once-benign view of China. That older view, still favored by many business people, held that a prosperous China would threaten its neighbors less than a poor China, and anyway would offer the United States great economic advantages. Accordingly, this view recommended that the West engage China in a friendly way and accommodate Beijing as much as possible. The newer view has responded to overwhelming evidence that Chinese development is far from benign, that China flaunts common trade practices, steals technological secrets on a huge scale and spies outrageously. Moreover, this new view contends that Beijing acts aggressively in Asia, seems to have set itself on a thinly-veiled imperialist project that it calls the “Belt and Road,” and shows no regard for human rights in Hong Kong and—still more outrageously—in its Xinjiang region. This new view frequently paints China as a dangerous economic, military, and diplomatic juggernaut, so unstoppable, in fact, that the United States, short of a disastrous military confrontation, has little choice but to engage China in disarming ways and accommodate it where it can. 

The Americans Are Coming? Washington’s China Pushback and Its Uncertainties

By Jin Kai

Source Link

In 2011, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) showed a two-episode series on China’s rise, which was titled “The Chinese Are Coming.” In this documentary, China’s economic expansion throughout the world was described in a vivid but largely questioning narrative. Besides China’s unprecedented economic acquisitions in continents like Africa and South America, abandoned factories in Youngstown, Ohio were particularly cited as an example to show how China’s economic expansion, with the help of globalization, cast shadows over the economy in some parts of the United States.

For the United States, the “shadows” cast by China’s ambitious growth are spreading almost everywhere, and Washington is taking actions on a wide range of political, economic, cultural, social, and ideological issues. That seems to suggest that it’s the Americans that are coming this time, with a so-called “whole-of-government” pushback on China.

The hi-tech war between China and the United States

By Giancarlo Elia Valori

Source Link

The new directive of the Central Office of the Communist Party of China (CPC), issued on December 8, 2019, ordered all State offices to quickly remove all foreign computer equipment and software within the next three years.

The CPC directive, which was highlighted only by the Financial Times, has not been made public.

It is therefore expected that many US companies, especially the likes of Dell, Microsoft, HP and some other smaller companies, will quickly be damaged by this choice of the Party and hence of the Chinese State.

The Chinese press has nicknamed this policy line as “3-5-2” because the substitutions will take place at a pace of 30% in 2020, 50% in 2021 and finally 20% in 2022.

Chinese sources estimate that 20 to 30 million pieces of hardware, mainframes, software and local networks will need to be swapped out throughout China with a large-scale replacement operation.

How a War with China over Taiwan Might Unfold

by Griffin Cannon
Source Link

Moderator: Admiral Gaumon, I can’t thank you enough for speaking with us on this anniversary of the second Battle of the Philippine Sea. It goes without saying this is an emotional day for all Americans and I can only imagine how difficult today is for you.

RADM Gaumon (ret.): Thank you, Steve. I know all Americans have heard some version of this story or another but there is a lot to tell. Many brave men and women fought and died on this day and I just hope their stories are not soon forgotten. This is about remembering them, the sacrifices they made, and, to be quite honest, what we did to fail them. I can’t say I’m glad to be telling that story, but for whatever reason I’m still around to tell it and I think that’s important to do.

Editor's note: this story is a work of fiction, exploring how a war might happen.

From Tibet to Xinjiang, Beijing’s man for restive regions Chen Quanguo is the prime target of US sanctions

Jun Mai

Source Link

His agenda included chairing a study session on patriotism, a regular event for Beijing’s point man in suppressing what China calls a separatist and terrorist insurgency in the region bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan.

“[We] must continue an extensive campaign on legal education and anti-extremism, to guide cadres and people of all ethnic groups to further strengthen their patriotic awareness,” says the official statement of his comments at the meeting.

Some hours later and more than 10,500km (6,500 miles) away, Chen’s activities were very much on the mind of more than 400 US lawmakers waking up in Washington for what wouldn’t be a normal day. They singled him out for sanctions in an  overwhelming vote to pass a bill to punish Chinese officials and companies involved in what they call human rights abuses on a massive scale in Xinjiang.

Why China Is Weaning Itself Off American Technology

Benjamin Wilhelm
Source Link

Editor’s Note: Every Wednesday, WPR Newsletter and Engagement Editor Benjamin Wilhelm curates the week’s top news and expert analysis on China.

The Financial Times reported this week that China has ordered “all government offices and public institutions to remove foreign computer equipment and software within three years.” The move, part of China’s broader push to reduce its reliance on U.S. technology, is a significant step toward the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies. ...

The Americans Are Coming? Washington’s China Pushback and Its Uncertainties

By Jin Kai
Source Link

In 2011, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) showed a two-episode series on China’s rise, which was titled “The Chinese Are Coming.” In this documentary, China’s economic expansion throughout the world was described in a vivid but largely questioning narrative. Besides China’s unprecedented economic acquisitions in continents like Africa and South America, abandoned factories in Youngstown, Ohio were particularly cited as an example to show how China’s economic expansion, with the help of globalization, cast shadows over the economy in some parts of the United States.

For the United States, the “shadows” cast by China’s ambitious growth are spreading almost everywhere, and Washington is taking actions on a wide range of political, economic, cultural, social, and ideological issues. That seems to suggest that it’s the Americans that are coming this time, with a so-called “whole-of-government” pushback on China.

Is China Planning To Incite A "People's War" To Dominate The South China Sea?

by James Holmes
Source Link

Last year China’s defense minister, General Chang Wanquan, implored the nation to ready itself for a “people’s war at sea.” The purpose of such a campaign? To “safeguard sovereignty” after an adverse ruling from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. The tribunal upheld the plain meaning of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ruling that Beijing’s claims to “indisputable sovereignty” spanning some 80-90 percent of the South China Sea are bunk.

A strong coastal state, in other words, cannot simply wrest away the high seas or waters allocated to weaker neighbors and make them its own.

Or, at any rate, it can’t do so lawfully. It could conceivably do so through conquest, enforced afterward by a constant military presence. Defenders of freedom of the sea, consequently, must heed General Chang’s entreaty. Southeast Asians and their external allies must take such statements seriously—devoting ample forethought to the prospect of marine combat in the South China Sea.

Likely Israeli Cyber Attack Compromises 15-Million Iranian Bank Accounts

by Richard Silverstein 

Source Link

15-million Iranian bank accounts were hacked and their owners financial data published via Telegram

The NY Times published a story this week about a massive cyber attack against three major Iranian banks which targeted 15-million customers. The latter received warnings that their account information had been hacked, harvested and made available via a Telegram account. This, of course, aroused panic in account holders and the banks themselves.

At first glance, the attack appeared in the guise of a conventional ransomware operation in which victims are deprived access to their accounts until they paid a financial ransom. But there was no serious attempt by the perpetrators to collect funds from the victims. This confirms that there was no financial motive in the enterprise.

Iranian officials at first attempted to ignore the hack, or at least refuse to acknowledge it publicly. But within the past few days, they did confirm it was a major attack.

Its purpose was clearly to further damage the Iranian economy, already strangled by U.S. sanctions:

This Is How Terrible a War with Iran Could Get

by David Axe 
Source Link

Oil tankers have burned on the Persian Gulf, allegedly victims of Iranian attack. An American drone was shot down over Yemen by rebel forces who reportedly have enjoyed some measure of Iranian support. And now Iran is threatening to exceed hard limits placed on its nuclear program. 

In the summer of 2019 Iran and the United States are “staggering toward war,” Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, wrote for Forbes.

And to great degree it’s the fault of U.S. president Donald Trump, who in 2017 withdrew the United States from a 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.

Four years ago Tehran suspended uranium enrichment in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. Trump reimposed many of those sanctions.

A reported coup attempt in South Sudan leads to continued fighting and hundreds of casualties.

Muntadhar al-Zaidi throws his shoes at then-U.S. President George W. Bush during a press conference in Baghdad, Iraq.

What can we learn from the escalating Israeli raids in Syria?

Eyal Tsir Cohen and Kevin Huggard

Source Link

On Wednesday afternoon, an Iranian ammunition depot in Al-Bukamal, Syria was hit by an airstrike. This attack comes after Israel reportedly conducted four air strikes in Syria between November 12 and November 20, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. While Israel has reportedly carried out thousands of strikes in Syria and neighboring Iraq in recent years, the frequency, intensity, and toll of these recent attacks are unprecedented.

The last month marks a peak in Israel’s war against Iran’s presence in Syria. Air strikes have targeted advanced air defense systems, surface-to-air missiles, reconnaissance sites, and warehouses, among other targets. Notably, the attacks carried out late on the night of November 20 hit the “Glass House,” the nickname given to the headquarters of Iran’s Quds Force in Syria at Damascus International Airport. The choice of this target, an important symbol of Iran’s presence and regular stopping point for Iranian VIPs in Syria, highlights this shift in Israel’s security policy.

There are a couple reasons for this shift. First, Israel has come to see that Iran is not forsaking its project in Syria, and further may be pursuing more sophisticated means of threatening Israel’s northern border. This week’s report that Iran is moving missiles into Iraq only reinforces this perception. Beyond this, Iran was bold enough not just to build its forces there but to deploy them by firing four rockets at civilian targets in Israel. For Israel, this crossed a red line.

Why the US should increase cyber pressure against North Korea

by Mark Pomerleau

Source Link

A new report offers several recommendations, including cyber and influence campaigns, for maintaining and even ratcheting up pressure on the North Korean regime.

The report, released Dec. 13 by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains that the Trump administration must do more to deter and impose costs on the regime of Kim Jong Un. The report is issued under the guise of coaxing more concessions from the hermit kingdom regarding its nuclear program.

The report calls for a more aggressive cyber approach, to include more offensive cyber action, as well as an increased information operations campaign aimed at three sets of internal targets: the regime elite, the second-tier leadership and the North Korean people.

On the cyber operational front, the report argues that Washington should engage in cyber operations that restrict North Korea’s adversarial cyber capabilities, such as dismantling networks used for hacking.

The shifting energy landscape and the Gulf economies’ diversification challenge

Samantha Gross and Adel Abdel Ghafar

Source Link

The hydrocarbon-dependent countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) face challenges in adjusting to the new reality in energy markets. Growing oil and gas production in the United States and growing concern about climate change mean that their hydrocarbon revenues are likely to decline over the long run. At the same time, growing populations and a rentier social contract make declining revenues a challenge for governance and stability. Governments in the region share oil wealth with their citizens through a large and well-paid public sector and through very low prices for energy.

Each of the GCC countries is working to diversify its economy away from oil dependence and to increase the private sector’s share of the economy. However, the high capital productivity of the energy sector makes diversification difficult and government investments often crowd out the private sector investment they are trying to encourage.

The urgency of reform is not consistent across the GCC. Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have the strongest economies in the region. They have large resources and small populations, leading to very high levels of hydrocarbon exports and reserves per capita. With less of an existential threat, reform is focused on continuing growth and providing a diverse and vibrant economy for their citizens. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman face deeper challenges. Saudi Arabia has vast petroleum reserves, but its large and diverse population means that its reserves and revenues are relatively small on a per capita basis. Saudi Arabia also faces the challenge of providing meaningful employment for a significant youth bulge – 40% of its population is under 25. Bahrain and Oman have much smaller reserves and revenues and face declining production. They also both face political challenges in enacting reform, although of a different nature in the two countries.

The Popular Backlash Against Migration Is Making a Global Problem Worse

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Around the world, migration continues to figure prominently in political debates. In Europe, far-right populist parties have used the Migrant Crisis of 2015 and latent fears of immigrants to fuel their rise and introduce increasingly restrictive border policies in countries, like Italy, where they have entered government. The popular backlash against immigrants has also pushed centrist governments to adopt a tougher line on immigration at home, while working with countries of origin and transit to restrict migration, whether through improving border controls or strengthening economic incentives for potential emigres to stay in their home countries.

In some places, the strategy appears to be working—for now. In Europe, asylum applications have dropped back to pre-2015 levels, when a wave of refugees and immigrants arrived on the continent from Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and Africa. In the United States, President Donald Trump’s pressure on Mexico to secure its southern border also appears to have stemmed the flow of refugees and migrants attempting to make it into the country. At the same time, the Trump administration is threatening to end aid programs that might actually help keep people in the Central American countries they are fleeing.

The Next Nuclear Plants Will Be Small, Svelte, and Safer

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For the last 20 years, the future of nuclear power has stood in a high bay laboratory tucked away on the Oregon State University campus in the western part of the state. Operated by NuScale Power, an Oregon-based energy startup, this prototype reactor represents a new chapter in the conflict-ridden, politically bedeviled saga of nuclear power plants.

NuScale’s reactor won’t need massive cooling towers or sprawling emergency zones. It can be built in a factory and shipped to any location, no matter how remote. Extensive simulations suggest it can handle almost any emergency without a meltdown. One reason is that it barely uses any nuclear fuel, at least compared with existing reactors. It’s also a fraction of the size of its predecessors.

This is good news for a planet in the grips of a climate crisis. Nuclear energy gets a bad rap in some environmentalist circles, but many energy experts and policymakers agree that splitting atoms is going to be an indispensable part of decarbonizing the world’s electricity. In the US, nuclear power accounts for about two-thirds of all clean electricity, but the existing reactors are rapidly approaching the end of their regulatory lifetimes. Only two new reactors are under construction in the US, but they’re billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule.

Why the U.S. Needs a Seat at the Table in Talks to End the War in Eastern Ukraine

Candace Rondeaux 

Source Link

More than five years after Russia annexed Crimea, with the war in eastern Ukraine grinding on, is a détente between Moscow and Kyiv finally within reach? It might have been tempting to think so with the summit this week in Paris between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was only a few months ago, after all, that Putin and Zelensky had their first phone call, which led to Russia and Ukraine swapping dozens of prisoners and agreeing to consider reopening talks over the political future of the breakaway Donbas region.

Yet despite some progress in Paris, a détente is still far off. Until Russia backs off its demand that Zelensky deal directly with the Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, the sustainability of any deal will be in doubt. Moreover, unless and until Russia makes room at the negotiating table for the United States, movement toward a negotiated settlement will be incremental at best. ...

What will Boris Johnson's majority mean for Brexit?

Anand Menon

Source Link

Well it is truly remarkable. Not so much the result of the election, which is surprising enough. But, rather, the fact that following the “Brexit election”, one in which traditional party loyalties seem to have been stretched to breaking point by the leave-remain divide, we emerge not knowing what kind of Brexit the prime minister intends to deliver.

In the short term, there is now no doubt that he will be able to “get Brexit done” in the sense of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of January. And no, that does not mean that Brexit will, in fact, be done (on which more in a minute) in a practical sense. But it may – may – be possible for the government to give the impression that it is in a politically persuasive way. 

On the one hand, pro-soft Brexit Tories whisper that Johnson will now unleash his inner one-nation Conservative

Departure itself will be a seismic event. Any government worth its salt will be able to trumpet that achievement as fulfilling the will of the British people. Thereafter, to maintain the illusion of completion, the task will be twofold. To keep the debate over relations with the Europeans as boring and technical as possible, and to launch a number of eye-catching policy initiatives that will give the impression that we have finally moved on.

Why Did the Pentagon Accidentally Release Its Nuclear Doctrine?

by David Axe
Source Link

The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff in mid-June 2019 briefly published the Pentagon’s official doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons. The joint chiefs quickly pulled the document -- Joint Publication 3-72, Nuclear Operations -- from the public website.

“The document presents an unclassified, mostly familiar overview of nuclear strategy, force structure, planning, targeting, command and control and operations,” commented Steven Aftergood, an analyst with the Federation of American Scientists.

Aftergood preserved a public copy of Joint Publication 3-72.

“Nuclear forces provide capabilities to achieve U.S. national objectives. Nuclear forces deter threats by sustaining modern, credible military capabilities,” the doctrine states. “It is imperative that nuclear force capabilities are diverse, flexible, adaptable, effective, responsive and survivable.”

Artificial Intelligence Isn’t an Arms Race

BY TIM HWANG, ALEX PASCAL 
Source Link

At the last Democratic presidential debate, the technologist candidate Andrew Yang emphatically declared that “we’re in the process of potentially losing the AI arms race to China right now.” As evidence, he cited Beijing’s access to vast amounts of data and its substantial investment in research and development for artificial intelligence. Yang and others—most notably the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which released its interim report to Congress last month—are right about China’s current strengths in developing AI and the serious concerns this should raise in the United States. But framing advances in the field as an “arms race” is both wrong and counterproductive. Instead, while being clear-eyed about China’s aggressive pursuit of AI for military use and human rights-abusing technological surveillance, the United States and China must find their way to dialogue and cooperation on AI. A practical, nuanced mix of competition and cooperation would better serve U.S. interests than an arms race approach.

AI is one of the great collective Rorschach tests of our times. Like any topic that captures the popular imagination but is poorly understood, it soaks up the zeitgeist like a sponge.

It’s no surprise, then, that as the idea of great-power competition has reengulfed the halls of power, AI has gotten caught up in the “race” narrative. China—Americans are told—is barreling ahead on AI, so much so that the United States will soon be lagging far behind. Like the fears that surrounded Japan’s economic rise in the 1980s or the Soviet Union in the 1950s and 1960s, anxiety around technological dominance are really proxies for U.S. insecurity about its own economic, military, and political prowess.

Stanford University finds that AI is outpacing Moore’s Law

By Cliff Saran
Source Link

Stanford University’s AI Index 2019 annual report has found that the speed of artificial intelligence (AI) is outpacing Moore’s Law.

How AI is putting the 'human' back into Human Resources

Discover how the allocation of work by algorithm might have advantages for workers as well as employers, how AI is proving its value for HR and how data analytics is being used to support expansion and development.

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Documentary Of The Week: Liberalism, Nationalism And Realism

by John Lounsbury

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This week we have a lecture by John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Prof. Mearsheimer discusses how liberalism has been confronted by nationalism and realism. He asserts that liberalism has been defeated, at least temporarily, in this confrontation.

The start of this discussion introduces the contrast between two different views of humanity:

Humanity is composed of individuals who come together to form social contracts which form the framework for society.

Humanity is composed of a basic social framework within which individuals carve out their own living spaces.

Artificial Intelligence Isn’t an Arms Race

BY TIM HWANG, ALEX PASCAL
Source Link

At the last Democratic presidential debate, the technologist candidate Andrew Yang emphatically declared that “we’re in the process of potentially losing the AI arms race to China right now.” As evidence, he cited Beijing’s access to vast amounts of data and its substantial investment in research and development for artificial intelligence. Yang and others—most notably the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which released its interim report to Congress last month—are right about China’s current strengths in developing AI and the serious concerns this should raise in the United States. But framing advances in the field as an “arms race” is both wrong and counterproductive. Instead, while being clear-eyed about China’s aggressive pursuit of AI for military use and human rights-abusing technological surveillance, the United States and China must find their way to dialogue and cooperation on AI. A practical, nuanced mix of competition and cooperation would better serve U.S. interests than an arms race approach.

AI is one of the great collective Rorschach tests of our times. Like any topic that captures the popular imagination but is poorly understood, it soaks up the zeitgeist like a sponge.

Revolt! Scientists Say They're Sick of Quantum Computing's Hype

Source Link

This spring, a mysterious figure by the name of Quantum Bullshit Detector strolled onto the Twitter scene. Posting anonymously, they began to comment on purported breakthroughs in quantum computing—claims that the technology will speed up artificial intelligence algorithms, manage financial risk at banks, and break all encryption. The account preferred to express its opinions with a single word: “Bullshit.”

The provocations perplexed experts in the field. Because of the detector’s familiarity with jargon and the accounts it chose to follow, the person or persons behind the account seemed be part of the quantum community. Researchers were unaccustomed to such brazen trolling from someone in their own ranks. “So far it looks pretty well-calibrated, but [...] vigilante justice is a high-risk affair,” physicist Scott Aaronson wrote on his blog a month after the detector’s debut. People discussed online whether to take the account’s opinions seriously.

“There is some confusion. Quantum Bullshit Detector cannot debate you. It can only detect quantum bullshit. This is why we are Quantum Bullshit Detector!” the account tweeted in response.

Public opinion lessons for AI regulation

Baobao Zhang

Source Link

This report from The Brookings Institution’s Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology (AIET) Initiative is part of “AI Governance,” a series that identifies key governance and norm issues related to AI and proposes policy remedies to address the complex challenges associated with emerging technologies.

An overwhelming majority of the American public believes that artificial intelligence (AI) should be carefully managed. Nevertheless, as the three case studies in this brief show, the public does not agree on the proper regulation of AI applications. Indeed, population-level support of an AI application may belie opposition by some subpopulations. Many AI applications, such as facial recognition technology, could cause disparate harm to already vulnerable subgroups, particularly ethnic minorities and low-income individuals. In addition, partisan divisions are likely to prevent government regulation of AI applications that could be used to influence electoral politics. In particular, the regulation of content recommendation algorithms used by social media platforms has been highly contestable. Finally, mobilizing an influential group of political actors, such as machine learning researchers in the campaign against lethal autonomous weapons, may be more effective in shifting policy debates than mobilizing the public at large.

Artificial Intelligence Isn’t an Arms Race

BY TIM HWANG, ALEX PASCAL
Source Link

At the last Democratic presidential debate, the technologist candidate Andrew Yang emphatically declared that “we’re in the process of potentially losing the AI arms race to China right now.” As evidence, he cited Beijing’s access to vast amounts of data and its substantial investment in research and development for artificial intelligence. Yang and others—most notably the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which released its interim report to Congress last month—are right about China’s current strengths in developing AI and the serious concerns this should raise in the United States. But framing advances in the field as an “arms race” is both wrong and counterproductive. Instead, while being clear-eyed about China’s aggressive pursuit of AI for military use and human rights-abusing technological surveillance, the United States and China must find their way to dialogue and cooperation on AI. A practical, nuanced mix of competition and cooperation would better serve U.S. interests than an arms race approach.

AI is one of the great collective Rorschach tests of our times. Like any topic that captures the popular imagination but is poorly understood, it soaks up the zeitgeist like a sponge.

US Military Needs Better Data On Itself To Exploit AI

By THERESA HITCHENS
Source Link

Lockheed Martin’s third Multi-Domain Command & Control (MDC2) wargame

CRYSTAL CITY: While the US military has “tons of really good information on the adversary” that can be used to teach future AI systems about enemy targets, it actually lacks the necessary data about its own forces, says Col. Enrique Oti, head of the Air Force’s key software innovation hub Kessel Run. Until DoD gets that data on itself, he said, there’s a host of AI applications out of reach.

“We don’t have really good information on ourselves — on maintenance, or personnel or even air war planning,” he told Breaking Defense after his presentation at AFCEA NOVA’s 18th annual Air Force IT Day seminar. Oti said that one of the things Kessel Run is trying to do is to rectify that problem.

Col. Enrique Oti, Air Force Kessel Run commander

Are We Ready For The First Patent Filed By Artificial Intelligence?

by Michael Rosen
Source Link

Patent practitioners and others in the world of intellectual property have expended significant time and money seeking to protect innovation in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). But what happens when an AI tries to patent something itself? Will such an event be possible? If so, who would be named as the inventor? And who would own the rights to the invention?

Given the pace at which machine learning is accelerating, these are the types of questions the patent system will soon have to answer. With computers driving cars, winning Go tournaments, performing surgeries, and much more, it’s only a matter of time before an AI is itself capable of inventing patentable subject matter.

It’s therefore no surprise that Andrei Iancu, the director of the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), solicited public comments last summer on the topic of patenting AI inventions. The goal, according to the USPTO was:

DEFENCE-IN-DEPTH

David Whetham, Kennneth Payne
Source Link

While much public discussion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is focused on Terminator-like killing machines, the official UK position is that there will always be a person in (or at least on – monitoring and able to intervene) the loop making any life-or-death decisions. Unfortunately, this rather ignores defensive uses of AI in many integrated systems where any human operator monitoring and intervening in a system would render that system too slow to be effective – there is no point in having human response times involved in near-light speed processes. This means that autonomy is likely to creep in through defensive systems, whatever the stated position of any government. And since there’s no hard and fast definition of a defensive weapon, and a powerful incentive not to be left behind, the spread of autonomous systems is most unlikely to stop there.

So what safeguards can be put in place? Simply relying on legal check lists will not be sufficient, as Admiral Woodward demonstrated in 1982 when he chose not to shoot down an aircraft approaching the British fleet with an apparently hostile profile and on an intercept course, despite having both ROE and legal permissions to act. The aircraft turned out to be a Brazilian airliner en route from Durban to Rio de Janeiro. The speed of decision-making required 40 years after the Falklands mean that such a decision might be made by an autonomous system – it is easy to imagine the humanitarian and political consequences if the British task force had shot down a civilian airliner.