Tang Meng Kit
A screenshot from the military drill video released by the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army on October 13, 2024. Photo: CGTN / Official WeChat account of the PLA Eastern Theater Command
When Lithuania let Taiwan open a diplomatic office in Vilnius in 2021, China froze trade overnight. Goods were blocked, supply chains snarled and European firms with Lithuanian ties faced pressure. The message was clear: a red line had been crossed. But what line, exactly? Beijing never said.
That is the logic of strategic ambiguity.
China has dellineated four red lines that anchor its foreign polilcy:Taiwan,
democracy and human rights,
its political system and
the right to development.
But those lines are rarely clear. They shift, vanish and reappear without warning. This is not a flaw; it’s a feature. And it’s a strategy that demands closer attention in the Indo-Pacific.
Ambiguity as strategy
Ambiguity means keeping thresholds vague, language flexible and reactions unpredictable. It lets China adjust its stance without appearing inconsistent. More importantly, it deters others. Foreign actors must weigh the risk of crossing a line they cannot see.
This is not new. The US also uses ambiguity on Taiwan. But Beijing applies the tactic more broadly. Its red lines cover sovereignty, values and development. And they come with consequences.
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