David Santoro
For more than five years, Chinese vessels operating in the South China Sea have repeatedly collided with Philippine ships, sometimes dousing them with water cannons and injuring personnel. In response, the United States deployed a Typhon intermediate-range missile system to the island country last year. It was the first time since the end of the Cold War that the United States had supplied an ally with a weapon of such magnitude—and it kicked off a diplomatic storm. China’s foreign ministry argued that the installation “disrupts regional peace and stability, undermines other countries’ legitimate security interest, and contravenes people’s aspiration for peace and development.” China, the ministry continued, would “not sit idly by” if the Philippines refused to remove it.
Beijing’s actions and threats against the Philippines are part of a broader attempt to counter the United States’ policy of “extended deterrence,” a strategy that commits Washington to defending its allies against aggression, including, in certain cases, with U.S. nuclear weapons. Beijing has long been critical of U.S. extended deterrence, on the grounds that it is a way for the United States to advance its interests against China. Chinese officials are now ramping up their efforts to undermine it. They have portrayed the United States as a destabilizing force in the region, made attempts to peel off U.S. allies using economic enticements and penalties, and engaged in ever more confrontational military operations. Such acts are intended to sap the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence, which is predicated on trust in Washington and faith in the United States’ capabilities.
For the Trump administration, maintaining extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific should be a priority. It should challenge Beijing’s rhetoric in diplomatic forums and counter Chinese gray-zone tactics, as well as strengthen military cooperation with regional allies. Otherwise, Washington’s power and influence in the region will soon be eclipsed.
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