Alper Coşkun
The Europe Program in Washington explores the political and security developments within Europe, transatlantic relations, and Europe’s global role. Working in coordination with Carnegie Europe in Brussels, the program brings together U.S. and European policymakers and experts on strategic issues facing Europe.Learn More
Amid the Middle East’s deepening turmoil, the growing rivalry between Israel and Türkiye is fueling tension in an already fragmented region. Despite a past legacy of cooperation, relations are now at an all-time low. Marked by antagonism, mutual suspicion, and zero-sum calculations, each side views the other’s regional ascent as a strategic challenge, if not a threat. Their competing regional ambitions are now most evident in Syria, where the United States has a chance to help reverse this trend before it boils over.
The situation used to be different. Relations rest on a deep history, going back to the late fifteenth century, when the Turkish homeland was a refuge for Jews fleeing persecution. In 1949, Türkiye recognized Israel’s statehood—the first Muslim majority country to do so. In the 1990s, Israeli-Turkish relations progressed further as the two countries advanced their national interests in tandem: They managed their differences, particularly over the Palestinian issue, while gradually building a partnership that extended into economic, military, and defense cooperation. In an era described as the “golden years,” they advanced free trade and collaborated extensively on military training, arms sales, technology transfers, and even intelligence sharing. Most importantly, they trusted each other.
Now, lack of trust has become a serious issue. Israel’s indiscriminate and increasingly assertive military actions since the Hamas terror attacks of October 7, 2023—including its destruction of Gaza, the humanitarian suffering it has brought upon the Palestinians, and its direct confrontation with Iran backed by the United States—have deepened Ankara’s unease about the regional order and Israel’s broader intentions. Türkiye views these developments, Israel’s growing ties with Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as its actions in Syria as part of a troubling pattern. Some in Türkiye even suggest that, after Israel’s conflict with Iran, their country could be next.
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