U.S.-China relations are increasingly caught in a spiral of mutual suspicion and reactive escalation. In June, China’s navy deployed its dual aircraft carrier groups — Liaoning and Shandong — beyond the Second Island Chain for the first time,
conducting more than 700 aerial sorties near Japan’s exclusive economic zone. For many in Washington, this unprecedented move signaled a heightened risk of imminent conflict over Taiwan. At the same time, Beijing has intensified its gray-zone pressure tactics, including underwater cable cutting and illegal sand dredging near the island. These developments appear to confirm fears of a looming military showdown.
But a closer look suggests otherwise. These military maneuvers, while visually forceful, are not necessarily preludes to war. Instead, they reflect a strategy of shaping; an attempt by Beijing to project strength, shift psychological balance,
and alter the perception of risks and costs associated with a Taiwan contingency. Rather than an operational rehearsal for invasion, China’s dual-carrier deployment was a carefully staged demonstration, meant to be seen and interpreted, not executed.
To break this strategic deadlock, the United States must act along two lines. First, it must correct its misreadings of Beijing’s intent — particularly the assumption that escalation always signals aggression. Second, it must counter China’s shaping tactics with shaping of its own: not by escalating further, but by designing a stable, disciplined strategic framework that reduces misperceptions and restores regional predictability.
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