23 July 2025

The Dalai Lama Succession: Religious Tradition, Geopolitical Contest And Implications For South Asia – Analysis

Nirupama Rao

The succession of the 14th Dalai Lama has become a pivotal issue at the intersection of religion and geopolitics. 

Traditionally guided by Tibetan Buddhist rituals, this sacred process is now entangled in a web of complications.

The Dalai Lama has confirmed that his lineage will continue and that his reincarnation will be born in a “free country”, 

identified strictly through religious procedures under his personal office. Conversely, the Chinese government asserts authority over the succession process. 

This scenario raises the likelihood of two rival Dalai Lamas, with significant implications for India, regional stability and global diplomacy.

Tibetan Buddhism determines the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation through visions, omens, oracle consultations and recognition tests administered by senior lamas. 

A committee traditionally searches for boys born around the time of the previous Dalai Lama’s death, 

guided by spiritual signs and visions (often from sacred sites like Lhamo La-tso lake in Tibet). Candidates are tested by their ability to recognise objects from their predecessors’ life. 

The current (14th) Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, was discovered in 1939 through such methods. Historically, 

Tibetans have rejected the Qing-imposed ‘Golden Urn’ lottery system (1793), used only sparingly and under duress, as contrary to spiritual discernment.

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