This paper examines the strategic implications of the fall of Bashar al-Assad for Russian foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East. The analysis first explores the motivations behind Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria and assesses the impact of Assad’s collapse across global,
regional, and domestic dimensions. Assad’s ousting represents a blow to Russia’s regional influence and global image, undermining years of political, military, and financial investment. While the HTS-led government has opened a short-term window for pragmatic cooperation with Moscow,
this relationship is driven by HTS’s need for legitimacy and technical expertise, and by Russia’s interest in preserving influence and maintaining its military installations. However, this alignment could prove temporary. In the long-term, ideological divergence,
competing alliances, and shifting regional dynamics may erode the foundations of the relationship and weaken Russia’s long-term positioning in Syria.
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