Iselin Brady, Daniel Byman, Riley McCabe, and Alexander Palmer
The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to walk away from Ukraine if there is no progress on a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Although the administration has sent mixed signals, its threat is not empty. On March 3, 2025, the United States suspended military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine following a tense meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky on February 28, only lifting the suspension on March 11.
A U.S. suspension of military support to Ukraine would be a grievous blow to Kyiv. But would it be fatal? Ukraine’s own resolve has been formidable even after three years of war, and Europe, which already provides tens of billions of euros in financial and military aid, might play a still greater role. This paper argues that a complete U.S. military and intelligence aid cutoff would significantly harm Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia but would not necessarily lead to immediate defeat—and that more limited cutoffs would have more limited effects on Ukraine’s battlefield performance. But the exact extent to which a U.S. cutoff would harm Ukraine depends on Europe’s ability to fill the gap with its own capabilities. Ukraine currently relies heavily on U.S. systems, training, intelligence, and logistics, and although European support and Ukraine’s own defense industry are substantial and growing, they cannot fully replace U.S. capabilities—particularly in the areas of air defense and intelligence assistance for precision targeting. The result is that continued U.S. aid remains extremely important for Ukraine’s long-term effectiveness on the battlefield. The broader geopolitical implications of a U.S. withdrawal could embolden Russia and its allies while straining transatlantic unity.
Ukraine currently relies heavily on U.S. systems, training, intelligence, and logistics, and although European support and Ukraine’s own defense industry are substantial and growing, they cannot fully replace U.S. capabilities.
Understanding the true impact of a cutoff, however, requires a deeper understanding of the types of weapons involved, European and Ukrainian capabilities absent the United States, and how China and other Russian allies would respond. The responses to the seven questions below illustrate the impact of a cutoff, important ambiguities regarding several key specifics of the U.S. threat, and the possibilities and limits of non-U.S. sources of aid.
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