The Brussels elites were surely dismayed at how well conservative populist candidates fared in Sunday’s first round of Poland’s presidential election. They would probably be even more surprised to discover a likely cause: abortion.
Poland’s ruling coalition was openly backed by the establishment powers that be in the run-up to the 2023 parliamentary vote. The European Commission had feuded for years with the conservative-populist Law and Justice party, alleging that it was suppressing the rule of law and threatening democracy.
They were relieved when Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition took power. Surely, they believed, democracy was saved, and modernity was coming to backwards little Poland.
Legalising abortion was a large part of that push for so-called modernity. Poland is one of Europe’s most religious countries, with at least 71 per cent of the population stating they are are Roman Catholics.
They also still practice their religion. Roughly 37 per cent attend mass weekly, with that number rising well above 40 per cent for Poles without a college degree.
It should thus be no surprise that Law and Justice passed a law during its tenure that is a near total ban on abortion in the country. Their voters tend to be less educated and more religious; banning abortion is simply what their supporters want.
Tusk took aim at this law during the parliamentary campaign, pledging to repeal it. In power, his government introduced a law that would legalise abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy, bringing it in line with Western European norms.
So far this story runs along the line the elites prefer: win an election, pass laws pushing an elite social agenda, and move “forward”. That’s where the story starts to run off the rails, however.
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