Jon B. Alterman
"Trust Fails" is part of Scenarios That Could Define 2035, a series that seeks to understand more about the future. The CSIS Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy drafted several scenarios to help think through aspects of the world in 2035. It then turned to trusted experts, inside and outside of CSIS, for their comments, insights, and concerns. The experts' contributions overlay the scenarios themselves, highlighting further areas of emphasis, implications, or alternative outcomes.
One of technology's relatively unappreciated qualities is that it has helped boost global trust. The internet has become an ecosystem whereby anyone can purchase goods from any seller anywhere in the world. Both the buyer and seller have relatively high confidence that the promised goods will be delivered and the seller will be paid, even if this is a one-time transaction where the parties have no connection to each other. Government identification documents have increasingly moved beyond photographs to include definitive biometric data. The global banking system mostly has abandoned paper documents that can be forged—or lost—and sends money around the world in a fraction of a second. Databases contain vast amounts of information that can verify almost any data point and make information available to any mobile phone user anywhere.
Technology's ability to ensure that strangers can trust each other has accelerated and deepened economic activities, even in remote places. 1 If one side or another fails to meet obligations, that will be recorded in some way in the vast depository of shared information: Credit reports will be hurt, online reputations will be tarnished, and platform access will be revoked. In that environment, individuals and firms need not limit their engagements to a small number of well-known entities, promoting efficiency, innovation, and agility.
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