Lawrence J. Haas
As President Trump explores a nuclear deal with Iran, he would be wise to recognize that Tehran probably comes to the negotiating table less because it fears Washington than because it smells opportunity.
That is, the talks could pave the way for Tehran to free itself from the threat of “snap-back” global sanctions this fall while strengthening the regime at home at a time of rising public discontent.
With those dynamics in mind, U.S. negotiators should set a firm deadline of no more than a few weeks to strike a deal that truly serves U.S. interests—lest they let Iranian negotiators drag out the talks, enabling Tehran to advance its nuclear program further while freeing itself from the threat of economic retaliation.
Let’s consider the likely view from Tehran after three rounds of talks that, not surprisingly, left major issues unresolved.
The president, publicly and in a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has threatened to use force against Iran’s nuclear sites in the absence of a deal. Still, Tehran has good reason to be skeptical.
For starters, Trump is the fourth president over the last quarter-century who threatened force while opting for conciliation, enabling Tehran to advance its nuclear and related ballistic missile programs. The mullahs might reasonably assume that Washington has no appetite for force, no matter which party is in power.
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