Paul Goble
The resolution of border disputes in Central Asia over the last two months has led to a sea change in Japan’s approach to the region (see EDM, March 12, April 16). This shift, however, may bring Japan into conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation, the two outside powers that have attempted to dominate the situation in Central Asia. Until the resolution of disputes first between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and then among all the countries of the region, Japan had pursued soft power initiatives for two decades. Now, Tokyo has decided to seek a stake in the economies of Central Asian countries, especially in their natural resource holdings.
In August 2004, Japan and the countries of Central Asia formed the Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue, a platform promoted by Tokyo and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who was then Kazakhstan’s foreign minister and is now its president (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, August 28, 2004). In the years since, these countries have held a number of meetings at the ministerial or deputy ministerial level with Japan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, March 14). As a result, Japan provided project financing and loans to assist the countries in the region in state building. In 2024, for example, Japan agreed to loan Uzbekistan 39 billion Japanese Yen (approximately $268 billion) to advance Uzbekistan’s transition to a market economy and enhance social inclusiveness and environmental sustainability (Japan International Cooperation Agency, August 13, 2024). In the period 2023 to 2024, Japan invested $42.5 million in the economy of Tajikistan and has engaged in a number of grant aid cooperation including road maintenance and solar energy installation projects, safety and efficiency improvements at the Dushanbe International Airport, and scholarships for Tajik students to study at Japanese universities (Daryo, August 18, 2024; Japan International Cooperation Agency, accessed May 1). These soft power projects expanded Japan’s influence but not its economic footprint (Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, August 28, 2004; Journal of International and Advanced Japanese Studies, February 2019). This platform was slated to be capped by a summit meeting between these countries in 2024, but that meeting was canceled because the Japanese prime minister was forced to stay home to deal with the threat of an earthquake (The Diplomat, August 8, 2024).
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