Rick Waters and Sheena Chestnut Greitens
Under President Donald Trump, U.S.-China relations have deteriorated more quickly than many anticipated. Early on, Trump’s positive comments toward Chinese President Xi Jinping, modest opening moves on tariffs, and conflicting signals on investment suggested that bilateral frictions could be kept within bounds. But since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on April 2, the situation has shifted, and the contours of Chinese thinking and approach are coming into shape.
First, both the United States and China see leader-level diplomacy as critical for resolving the current trade war impasse, but Washington and Beijing have diametrically opposed approaches to getting there. The U.S. administration believes that engagement between Trump and Xi should be spontaneous and direct, but Beijing believes it must be carefully prepared by working-level contacts in advance.
Trump’s early engagements with Mexico, Canada, and Ukraine intensified China’s always cautious approach to top-level diplomacy. One Chinese official privately noted, “We hope for an early leader engagement, but we will not rush to Mar-a-Lago like [Canadian former prime minister Justin] Trudeau. A meeting must be carefully prepared.” Chinese interlocutors recognize that leader-level diplomacy is essential, but they also see it as high-risk and want to use lower-level channels to try to manage that risk prior to a Trump-Xi conversation.
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