Ian Bremmer
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump will open the first multicountry foreign trip of his second term with a stop in Saudi Arabia, underscoring that ties with Riyadh remain a Trump priority. (He’ll also visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.) While a hoped-for diplomatic breakthrough normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations will have to wait—at least until the Gaza war ends—plenty of other opportunities will allow Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, to leave their meeting claiming diplomatic victory.
The Saudi need for a U.S. security guarantee is less urgent than during Trump’s first term. Iran, still the Saudis’ main regional rival, is now far weaker after Israel’s battering of its allies Hamas and Hezbollah and the ouster of Tehran-aligned Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. It’s also unlikely Trump could deliver the two-thirds Senate super-majority needed for a formal defense treaty.
But even without the Israeli piece of the diplomatic puzzle, Trump intends to offer a new level of defense cooperation, including a public pledge to defend the kingdom if attacked by Iran or its remaining allies. That list may no longer include the Houthis. On May 6, Trump announced a surprise cease-fire with the Yemeni rebels, ending U.S. airstrikes in exchange for a halt to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. The deal, which notably excluded Israel, was brokered by Oman and lets Trump claim a win that reduces immediate threats to Saudi oil infrastructure ahead of his visit.
The kingdom is also seeking access to cutting-edge U.S. technologies, like advanced semiconductors for its expanding tech and AI sectors—an area in which it lags behind the neighboring UAE. To secure that access, Washington will insist that Riyadh curtail high-level tech cooperation with China.
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