Taiwan’s future precarious—with or without US-China conflict - Asia Times

Political ructions add element of instability as Trump’s unpredictability puts self-ruling democratic island on new edge

 Kerry Brown 

SOURCE LINK

Taiwan has to being a “shrimp between two whales.” That expression has never been more apt than today with the US and China – which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory – locked in a standoff over the future of the island.

At an event I attended some years ago, a Chinese scholar remarked when the issue of the US-China rivalry came up that they believed there was an African saying: “When two elephants are either having a fight, or making love, the grass around them gets trampled.”

It was best for everyone, they advised the other attendees, for the two superpowers to have a workmanlike, unexciting relationship rather than take the risk of things getting too friendly or hostile.

But whether or not the current period of conflict continues or the US and China magically become more aligned, the challenges facing Taiwan are severe.

First off, Taiwan is itself in a period of domestic turbulence. The government of Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, was elected in January 2024 with a little over 40% of the vote. This was considerably less than his predecessor from the same party, Tsai Ing-wen.

One of the main opposition leaders, Ke Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s party, has since then been arrested on corruption charges. He is accused of accepting half a million US dollars in bribes during his term as mayor of Taipei, as well as misreporting campaign finances during his presidential run.

Most recently, in late July, recall votes were held where citizens in 24 districts of Taiwan chose whether or not to remove their legislator from office. This is the result of a law in Taiwan stipulating a new vote if 10% of the electorate in a specific constituency express dissatisfaction at the previous outcome. Activists supporting the government mobilised to achieve this.