Military briefing: India and Pakistan test red lines of nuclear rivalry

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Clashes have been carefully calibrated since they became atomic powers. But the informal rules are fraying © FT Montage Military briefing: India and Pakistan test red lines of nuclear rivalry on x (opens in a new window) Military briefing: India and Pakistan test red lines of nuclear rivalry on facebook (opens in a new window) Military briefing: India and Pakistan test red lines of nuclear rivalry on linkedin (opens in a new window) Save current progress 0% Charles Clover in Vilnius, Andres Schipani in New Delhi, Humza Jilani in Islamabad and Krishn Kaushik in Mumbai PublishedMAY 9 2025 Print this page Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter. With roughly 170 nuclear warheads apiece, India and Pakistan have evolved a singular approach to armed conflict. Both sides are willing to use military force — but cautiously and according to unwritten rules that aim to prevent escalation. 

The last major war between the two countries — the 1999 Kargil War — took place in the shadow of successful nuclear tests by each side the previous year and typified a new era in ultra-caution: only ground forces were used. In recent years, however, those informal rules have been loosened, with both countries brandishing weapons and tactics not seen in the post-nuclear era. Air power was first witnessed in 2019, with strikes into Balakot that hit undisputed Pakistani territory for the first time in almost half a century. This week’s fighting started with air strikes too, launched by India on both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. But the attacks, which Islamabad said killed 32, were deeper into Pakistan than before — one strike was 100km from the border — and simultaneous across multiple targets, including urban areas. “One really important threshold that both India and Pakistan have respected was the use of air power against each other. That source of restraint has now entirely, I think, evaporated,” said Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the 2025 book The New Nuclear Age. “India and Pakistan are in a place where these types of skirmishes, in which they both employ air power against each other, are apparently now tolerable to each side.”