Jay Pasquarette
Neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program would be a far cry from the single, decisive blow of Operation Opera. It would likely require a sustained air campaign, going beyond surgical airstrikes to incorporate cyber operations and other forms of warfare.
Israel faces a crucial decision regarding Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions. The Islamic Republic, grappling with internal unrest and economic turmoil, is arguably at its most vulnerable in years. Protests in the streets challenge the regime’s grip on power while crippling sanctions imposed by the United States have strangled its economy. Adding to the pressure, Israel’s persistent covert operations, from crippling cyberattacks to the targeted elimination of key scientists and the degradation of Iranian air defenses, have further weakened Tehran’s position. This has bolstered Israel’s leverage on the world stage as it attempts to coerce great powers, namely the United States, to assist with this venture. This confluence of factors presents Israel with a complex dilemma, echoing a monumental event in its past: the 1981 airstrike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor. That operation was characterized by its speed, unilateral execution, and contained fallout. As a result, Israel successfully neutralized Saddam Hussein’s nuclear ambitions. Applying a similar approach to Iran today is fraught with far greater risks and uncertainties. The Osirak operation’s defining characteristics are worth analyzing to determine their relevance to Israel’s current predicament, given the starkly different challenge Iran poses on the world stage today. Although the operational challenges may be vastly different, Osirak’s imprint on Israel’s strategic calculus makes it enduringly relevant.
A Fast Strike
On June 7, 1981, Israeli F-16 fighter jets carried out Operation Opera. Their target was the Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad. Within minutes, the reactor, nearing completion and feared to be on the verge of producing weapons-grade plutonium, was destroyed. This daring operation, executed with surgical precision and speed, showcased the Israeli military’s commitment to denying its enemies any nuclear capability, regardless of the potential consequences.
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