US Narratives Versus Reality on Taiwan

Zhehao Du

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As Sino-US relations deteriorate, the Taiwan question has become an increasingly dangerous flashpoint—one that some analysts believe could even spark a third world war. The dominant, US-led, Western narrative casts the “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis” as the product of mainland China’s expanding military power and alleged “authoritarian turn,” illustrated by its handling of Hong Kong and its purportedly coercive posture toward Taiwan. Within this frame, a mainland “invasion” is treated as the logical, almost inevitable outcome of Sino-US rivalry. Conversely, Taiwan is depicted as a lone democracy bravely resisting authoritarian menace, its own cross-Strait policy largely ignored; Taipei appears merely a passive target. Paradoxically, although Western discourse often presents Taiwan as an “independent state,” it simultaneously strips Taiwan of agency—even though Taipei’s policy choices decisively shape cross-Strait stability.

Before analysing the triangular dynamics among the United States, mainland China, and Taiwan, the historical character of the dispute must be clarified. Contrary to the prevailing US portrayal of a major power seeking to invade a small, independent neighbour, post-war instruments—the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Declaration and the Hirohito surrender broadcast—restored sovereignty over Taiwan to China. After Japan’s defeat, the Chinese Civil War resumed; the Kuomintang-led Republic of China retreated to Taiwan following its defeat by the Chinese Communist Party. Because no peace treaty has ever been signed, the two sides remain, de jure, in a state of civil war.

Regarding Taiwan’s legal status, both the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China constitutions claim sovereignty over the whole of China, encompassing both Taiwan and the mainland. The United Nations designates Taiwan as “a province of China,” and the 2016 South China Sea arbitral award referred to its administration as the “Taiwan Authority of China Taiwan Authority of China.” Globally, 180 states maintain diplomatic relations with the PRC: some accept the One-China Principle (explicitly recognising PRC sovereignty over Taiwan), while others, notably the United States, adopt a more ambiguous One-China Policy—acknowledging Beijing’s claim without formally recognising it and opposing formal Taiwanese independence.