Matthew Johnson
A PRC “fish farm support facility” in the Yellow Sea’s Provisional Measures Zone. Beijing’s expanding naval footprint will force Seoul to weigh economic engagement against rising security risks in its strategic calculus. (Source: Chosun)
Executive Summary:
The Xi Jinping–Lee Jae Myung phone call on June 10 signals a tactical thaw after years of strain under Yoon Suk Yeol, reviving “good-neighborly friendship” language and soft power channels Beijing had suspended when Yoon restarted work on deploying the U.S. missile defense system THAAD.
Korea’s trade and financial ties with the People’s Republic of China remain deep and are expanding incrementally through upgraded free trade agreement, digital governance frameworks, and modest renminbi (RMB) usage. This interdependence is pragmatic, however, and not an endorsement of Beijing’s regional order.
Beneath the thaw, persistent maritime incursions, gray-zone coercion, and tech friction reveal that Beijing’s leverage and pressure tools remain fully active, capping how far trust can deepen.
Seoul’s alliance with Washington, dollar-based trade flows, and strategic diversification in semiconductors anchor its core orientation firmly in the U.S.-led order—the hedge that balances Beijing’s gravity.
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