How to Gauge Whether Trump’s AI Chip Deals With Gulf Countries Are Any Good

Alasdair Phillips-Robins and Sam Winter-Levy

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The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has signed multiple agreements giving Middle Eastern countries greater access to cutting-edge U.S. semiconductors and allowing them to build state-of-the-art AI data centers in the region. Bringing these countries closer to the U.S. technology ecosystem has been a long-standing goal of U.S. foreign policy, and access to chips gives Washington leverage to make it happen. Smart deals have the potential to protect U.S. technology, expand foreign markets for U.S. companies, and build economic and political partnerships with geopolitical swing states.

But there are also significant risks to these deals if they’re rushed through. Ill-judged agreements that offer up huge quantities of chips could offshore a growing U.S. industry and hand control over a strategic technology to countries whose interests only partially align with those of the United States. The administration needs to promote U.S. industry without giving away control over frontier AI development or enabling technology diversion to China.

So, what should observers look for to assess the merits of an AI deal? Many of the specifics will likely not be disclosed, but deals—good or bad—will carry key indicators. Some of these will likely be revealed by public reporting, while others will be available to those in Congress and the executive branch. Some may even be left undecided in initial deals and left to later implementation decisions. Important indicators include chip numbers, key beneficiaries, security measures, and concessions.