Ryan D. Griffiths and Seva Gunitsky
Statehood is a precious commodity. After a burst of creation following the Soviet Union’s collapse, only three new countries have been recognized in the last 30 years—East Timor, in 2002, Montenegro, in 2006, and South Sudan, in 2011. There have been plenty of other attempts in that interval. But most have been stymied by the principle of territorial integrity, which prioritizes fixed borders even in cases of state failure and makes the path to legal independence long and uncertain.
But in the last few years, this norm has grown weaker. In February 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine designed to wipe the country off the map. Initially met with shock and horror, the idea of the Russian conquest of Ukraine has since been normalized by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for letting Moscow keep some of this land. Trump has also threatened to annex Canada, as well as Greenland, which is an autonomous region of Denmark. Just how serious he is remains to be seen. But the upshot is clear: the United States, the most powerful country in the world, no longer views territorial integrity as an important element of the global order.
For some secessionist groups, this is certainly good news. Independence movements no longer must prove that their cause is just or essential. Instead, they may simply need to align with powerful countries, especially in strategically important areas. Trump’s preference for personal diplomacy could also help separatists, provided that they have charismatic leaders who can sidestep cumbersome institutional diplomacy and court the American president himself.
Yet Trump’s rejection of international norms is a double-edged sword. These norms constrain separatists and deter governmental repression. They also give secessionists a way to make their claims. Independence movements typically justify their existence using the language of human rights and self-determination, which Trump disregards. Rather, this U.S. president favors strong, brutal rulers over fledgling upstarts. He has aligned himself with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have used killings and other kinds of violence to suppress Kurdish and Chechen secessionists, respectively. Trump does not care about impoverished separatists if they cannot provide him with immediate rewards.
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