Rueben Dass
In the Afghanistan-Pakistan region’s evolving threat landscape, terrorist groups have been slow in adopting technologies such as drones and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) for their operations. This is due to several factors, namely the availability of more lethal weapons such as small and light arms; the lack of technical expertise; and utilitarian considerations – the efficacy of more technologically advanced weapons versus the costs involved in developing and using them. However, this dynamic underwent a shift in 2024 as two key trends point towards the nascent adoption of drones and AI in the region.
Against this backdrop, this Insight explores how terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, namely the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and Baloch insurgent groups, are incorporating these two technologies in their operations, the threat they pose, and implications for the region’s security landscape. It will also outline counter-terrorism recommendations for governments and technology companies to mitigate the threat without disrupting their permeation in the wider society.
The Technology Adoption Curve
Research by Gartenstein-Ross, Clarke and Shear highlight four phases in which terrorist groups adopt technologies: the ‘early adoption’ phase where terrorist groups’ adoption of emerging technologies is marked by a high rate of failure and underperformance; the ‘iteration’ phase where technological adoption is refined as it undergoes substantial commercial improvement; the ‘breakthrough phase’ where groups hone the use and adoption of a particular technology and significantly improve the success rate; and the ‘competition’ phase where terrorist groups innovate while showing resilience to persist with the use of technologies as countermeasures are enhanced, triggering a cyclical pattern.
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