Gaurav Sen
Taiwan urgently needs to overhaul its air defence strategy to prevent the rising threat of low-cost drone saturation attacks from China.
This demands three major reforms: expanding air-defence capability with low-cost weapons; improving survivability with hardening and greater mobility; and strengthening early warning, logistics and resilience through enhanced cooperation with partners.
China’s inventory of drones, encompassing both reconnaissance and strike types, has increased significantly in recent years. Systems such as the CH-4, WZ and the extensively distributed ASN series provide multirole capabilities at various altitudes, ranges and speeds.
The most notable aspect of this threat is the deployment of expendable, low-cost drones that could significantly alter the dynamics of the cross-strait conflict. Taiwan’s principal interceptor missiles, such as the Sky Bow and the US-supplied Patriot PAC-3, cost many times as much per round as the drones.
This easily exploited disparity could prove fatal for Taiwan. Drone swarms each costing several million dollars might deplete Taiwan’s interceptor inventories.
Conflict between India and Pakistan in May and the Israel-Iran crisis in June have demonstrated that conventional air defences, intended to intercept fast, high-value aircraft and missiles, are more susceptible to mass, low-cost drone assaults. Pakistan executed a coordinated operation by sending 300 to 500 drones into Indian airspace. Although most were knocked down inexpensively by anti-aircraft guns, some got through, compelling India to fire many costly interceptors. Concurrently, Pakistan said it had intercepted several Indian drones. Some were used against Pakistani radars.
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