4 October 2017

India is right in its cautious pragmatism on Afghanistan

By Chayanika Saxena

US President Donald Trump unveiled his much-touted Afghan policy on 21 August 2017. Trump announced to adopt a condition-based policy instead of a calendar-driven agenda, a moderate troop surge (4,000 soldiers), putting Pakistan on the spot for hosting the Taliban and urging India to play a larger economic role in conflict stabilization. New Delhi has welcomed Trump’s Afghan policy with cautious optimism as it does not address all of India’s concerns. 

Reflections on Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan


GEN Petraeus: When we were getting ready for what became the invasion of Iraq, the prevailing wisdom was that we were going to have a long, hard fight to Baghdad, and it was really going to be hard to take Baghdad. The road to deployment, which was a very compressed road for the 101st Airborne Division, started with a seminar on military operations in urban terrain, because that was viewed as the decisive event in the takedown of the regime in Iraq—that and finding and destroying the weapons of mass destruction.

Trump Goes to Asia: What's on the Line?

By Ankit Panda

The White House has confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to make his third large presidential foreign trip. This time, he will travel to Asia for the usual round of November summits, in addition to more than a few tense bilateral meetings with allied leaders who have grown increasingly concerned about U.S. policy towards the Korean peninsula.

China’s First 5th Generation Fighter Jet Is Operational

By Franz-Stefan Gady

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has officially commissioned its first fifth-generation fighter aircraft into service, Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense said during a press conference on September 28.

U.S. offensive cyber operations against North Korean military intelligence are significant.

By Ankit Panda

The Washington Post broke an important story on Saturday: U.S. Cyber Command has been engaged in offensive cyber operations against North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), the country’s military espionage arm. The action was authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump shortly after North Korea’s first ballistic missile launches of the year in February and March, following the conclusion of the administration’s policy review on North Korea. The Post‘s account outlines the scope of the operation:

How America Is Losing the Battle for the South China Sea


What a difference a year makes. In late summer 2016, there was some hope the July 2016 UN Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling in favor of the Philippine interpretation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea regarding the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal would curtail Beijing’s subsequent activity in the South China Sea (despite China’s refusal to even participate in the arbitration case or recognize the court’s jurisdiction, let alone accept the ruling). In fact, some optimists, like Lynn Kuok from the National University of Singapore, have pointed to small developments—such as China this year permitting Filipino and Vietnamese fishing around Scarborough Shoal for the first time since 2012—as encouraging signs that the Hague’s ruling is having a positive effect. But most observers see it much differently, and developments this past summer seem to support a much more pessimistic forecast.

Former NATO military chief: there’s a 10% chance of nuclear war with North Korea

by Yochi Dreazen

Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis spent 37 years in the military, including four years as the supreme allied commander of NATO. Hillary Clinton vetted him as a possible running mate. President-elect Donald Trump considered naming him secretary of state. He is a serious man, and about as far from an armchair pundit as it’s possible to be.

The Need For Missile Defense

by Victor Davis Hanson

America’s great advantage when it entered world affairs after the Civil War was that its distance from Europe and Asia ensured that it was virtually immune from large sea-borne invasions.

The Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans proved far better barriers than even the forests and mountain ranges of Europe. At twenty-eight years old, Abraham Lincoln succinctly summed up America’s natural invincibility in his famous Lyceum Address of January 27, 1838: “All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Bonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.”

How America and North Korea Could Start a Nuclear War

Doug Bandow

The Cold War was marked by hysteria over the potential for nuclear conflict. School kids practiced getting under their desks and families built bomb shelters in case the missiles fell. Although there were moments of acute danger, most notably the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world seemed to enter a new age when the Soviet Union collapsed. Small wars continued, but the famed nuclear doomsday clock finally moved backwards.

4 Ways out of the Korean Crisis


Ken Burns’ exceptional documentary on the Vietnam War reminds us once again that the conduct of U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific region has been less than flawless. The millions of victims of that needless conflict, including fifty-eight thousand American servicemen who made the ultimate sacrifice, should never be forgotten. As Ambassador Don Gregg recently wrote in a letter to the New York Times, the Burns documentary and the lessons of Vietnam have much to teach about avoiding “misguided decisions,” in the current Korean nuclear crisis.

2019 Could Be a Very Bad Year for Ukraine

Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Yes, 2019 matters ...

For several years, Russia has been warning—consistently and clearly—that it tends to stop using Ukraine as a transit country for sending its energy to Western markets. If this happens, a major hole will open in the Ukrainian economy which Europe and the United States do not appear to be prepared to fill.

Why??? Hewlett Packard let Russia scrutinize cyberdefense software system used by Pentagon


WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Hewlett Packard Enterprise allowed a Russian defense agency to review the inner workings of cyber defense software used by the Pentagon to guard its computer networks, according to Russian regulatory records and interviews with people with direct knowledge of the issue.

The HPE system, called ArcSight, serves as a cybersecurity nerve center for much of the U.S. military, alerting analysts when it detects that computer systems may have come under attack. ArcSight is also widely used in the private sector.

Make No Mistake, Cyber War Is A Real And Present Threat

Alain Frachon

PARIS — Imagine if a foreign entity neutralized the public health system in the Paris region. Or if it went on to attack the electric grid, interfering with the meteorological services, manipulating French President Emmanuel Macron's emails and targeting the military and police communication systems. All from a computer keyboard. Nobody would get killed, at least not directly. No building destroyed. And yet, most commentators, even the most argumentative, would agree: This is an act of war.

Props: Small Planes for Small Wars


War is expensive, especially when using high-end fourth and fifth generation aircraft designed for World War III to bomb handfuls of sandal wearing men armed with rusty AK-47s. While the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (DOD) enjoyed the extravagance of seemingly bottomless coffers during the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, that time has ended. The DOD cannot afford to employ its most advanced high-end aircraft in support of every military operation. The U.S. military is primarily engaged in small-scale overseas contingency operations, characterized by tight budgets and strict force caps. These operations largely involve small teams of special operations forces (SOF) and regionally aligned ground forces deployed to advise and assist U.S. allied and partner-nation forces in irregular warfare (IW), specifically counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, and foreign internal defense. The deployment of high-end jet aircraft in support of these forces is not only impractical due to robust support requirements but also fiscally irresponsible due to astronomical acquisition and operating costs. Instead, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) requires an inexpensive, light air support (LAS) aircraft as a practical and cost-effective means of providing air support for IW in low air threat environments.1

US, Philippines Launch New Military Exercise

By Prashanth Parameswaran

On October 2, the United States and the Philippines officially began the launch of a newly named bilateral exercise. The holding of the fresh drills speaks to the steps both sides are continuing to take to adapt to the changing context of the treaty alliance under the reign of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

3 October 2017

Military Culture

"An Army without culture is dull witted army, and a dull witted army cannot defeat the enemy"
-- Moa Tse Tung

We have lot of discussions on strategic culture of a nation. How about Military Culture? Does military culture matters? Military culture includes four factors, which are: discipline; professional ethos; ceremony and etiquette and cohesion and esprit de corps. 

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) defines military culture as “an amalgam of values, customs, traditions and their philosophical underpinnings that, over time, has created a shared institutional ethos.” Don M. Snider and his associates give another definition: “Military culture is the deep structure of organization drawn from the Army’s past successes and from its current interactions with the environment. It is rooted in the prevailing assumptions, values, and traditions which collectively, over time, have created shared individual expectations among the members of the Army profession.” 

Historians have done little work on the subject of military culture, focusing for the most part on more immediate factors such as leadership, doctrine, or training to explain victory or defeat. Military culture represents the ethos and professional attributes, both in terms of experience and intellectual study, that contribute to a common core understanding of the nature of war within military organizations. Military culture is the linchpin that helps determine the ability to transform because it influences how innovation and change are dealt with. The ability to harness and integrate technological advances with complementary developments in doctrine, organization and tactics is dependent on the propensity of military culture to accept and experiment with new ideas. Military culture comprises the attitudes, values, goals, beliefs, and behaviors characteristic of the institution that are rooted in traditions, customs, and practices and influenced by leadership. As Michael Howard has suggested, no other profession is as demanding in physical or mental terms as the profession of arms. 

Military culture changes over time in response to changes in a society’s culture, the advance of technology and the impact of leadership. As one senior service officer has noted, military cultures are like great ocean liners or aircraft carriers: they require an enormous effort to change direction.
In interwar period where militaries across Europe, Japan, and the United States faced budgetary constraints, rapid technological advances and unknown and ambiguous requirements. The ability of some militaries to transform while others were less successful was due to different cultures. Those that were receptive to honest self-assessment and intellectual rigor within open debate were able to overcome the inertia.

The German military possessed a devotion to duty, a seriousness about tactics and a breathtaking contempt for logistics and intelligence in the two world wars. The reason why German military culture paid so little attention to logistics has much to do with geography. The Germans have always been at the center of military operations throughout the history of European warfare, and Prussia’s catastrophe at Jena/Auerstadt in October 1806—whereby a single day’s defeat resulted in the collapse of the state—exercised a baleful influence as late as May 1945. 

The military capabilities that enabled the Germans to win in 1940 resulted not from revolutionary changes occurring in the 1930s, but rather from fundamental changes in the German military’s organizational culture that had occurred during the early 1920s, when Hans von Seeckt, the first chief of staff and in 1920 commander in chief of the Reichswehr, altered the cultural patterns of the German officer corps as a whole. Faced with the task of reducing the German army’s officer corps from more than 20,000 officers to the limit set by the Treaty of Versailles, Seeckt turned the officer corps over to the control of the great general staff.17 By so doing he deselected important constituencies, namely the Junker aristocracy and Frontsoldaten. The effect was to infuse the whole army with the cultural attributes of the general staff: the hallmarks of the new German army were systematic, thorough analysis; a willingness to grapple with what was really happening on the battlefield; and a rigorous selection process that emphasized officers’ intellectual attainments—in a professional sense—as well as their performance in leadership positions. 

Along with this emphasis, Seeckt appointed no fewer than fifty-seven different committees to study the lessons of World War I. This thorough, complete study of the last war stands in stark contrast to the experience of the British army, which failed to establish a single committee to study the lessons of that war until 1932, more than a decade after the Germans. Even then, the chief of the British imperial general staff had the report rewritten to cast a more favorable light on the army’s wartime performance. The Germans built on the work of Seeckt’s committees to fashion a coherent, combined arms doctrine; by 1923 the German army was well on the way to inventing the Blitzkrieg.18 

In 1932 two of the Reichswehr’s most respected generals, Werner von Fritsch and Ludwig Beck, rewrote the German army’s basic doctrinal manual, Die Truppenfรผhrung (Troop Leadership), which served as the basis for the combined-arms battle doctrine with which the Germans fought the Second World War. The opening paragraphs of that manual encompassed the fundamental cultural assumptions of the German army: 

1. The conduct of war is an art, depending upon free, creative activity, scientifically grounded. It makes the highest demands on individuals. 

2. The conduct of war is based on continuous development. New means of warfare call forth ever changing employment. . . . 

3. Situations in war are of unlimited variety. They change often and suddenly and are rarely discernible at an early point. Incalculable elements are often of great influence. The independent will of the enemy is pitted against ours. Frictions and mistakes are an every day occurrence.

Fritsch and Beck would assume control of the German army soon after Hitler came to power, and held responsibility for devel-oping the qualities that made that army such a formidable fighting instrument in the coming war.
Throughout the 1920s and 1930s, German army culture demanded not only high standards in terms of troop leadership but also serious study of the profession of arms. The case of Erwin Rommel suggests how widespread was this culture of serious intellectual preparation of the officer corps. If ever there was a “muddy boots combat soldier,” it was Rommel, yet he not only avidly devoured books, he wrote them. His Infantrie Greift An (Infantry Attacks) is one of the great classics in the literature of war.20

The German army tested its doctrine and new technologies throughout the interwar period to ensure continued realistic assessments. After the invasion of Poland in 1939, the army continued its critical self-assessments, which later helped in its invasion of France. As S.J. Lewis observes, “The senior and mid-level officers who so critically observed the army’s performance were the product of a particular military culture.” Paramount was a military culture that actively incorporated the products of open discussion and honest self-reflection into new tactics and organizations, including the reorganization of motorized divisions. The German navy, however, proved in two world wars that there was nothing innately competent about German military organizations; as a result, one should hesitate before ascribing undue influence to national culture in how service cultures develop.

There are few military organizations that possess a culture that encourages the study of even the recent past with any thoroughness. Most military organizations quickly develop myths that allow escape from unpleasant truths; such was the case with the French army in the immediate aftermath of World War I. And in some cases military cultures reject the past as having no relevance to the future of war. 

Military cultures that remain enmeshed in the day-to-day tasks of administration, that ignore history and serious study and allow themselves to believe that the enemy will possess no asymmetric responses are military organizations headed for defeat. 

What is India's military culture? How does it affect India's feeble effort on Transformation? 

Watch this space.




Quantum Networks and Cyber Security Challenges

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

It has always been maintained that there is nothing like total cyber security. However, in August 2017 the Chinese satellite ‘Micius’ beamed “hack proof” messages to earth, that were received by two Chinese receiver stations atop mountains – one 645km and the other 1200 km away.

The Quantum Experiments at Space Scales (QUESS) ‘Micius’ is the first quantum satellite in the world that China launched on August 15, 2017.

How Would Reagan’s Defense Secretary View the New Afghanistan Strategy?

BY J. DAVID PATTERSON

How shall we evaluate President Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy? One useful way is to measure it against Caspar Weinberger’s succinct framework for sending U.S. troops to fight abroad. In a 1984 speech at the National Press Club, the then-defense secretary laid out six principles: 

WHY THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR WILL WORSEN TENSIONS IN SOUTHERN ASIA

DANIEL MARKEY

Last May, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the Belt and Road Initiative as the “project of the century.” Premier Li Keqiang has identified the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the initiative’s “flagship project.” Marked by the fanfare of high-flying rhetoric and backed by billions of dollars in new investments, China has undeniably taken on a new and more active role in Southern Asia.


Instability in the MENA Region, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Key Conflict states: A Comparative Score Card

By Anthony Cordesman

If the U.S. is to fight extremism and instability in the Middle East, North Africa, and other key conflict countries in the developing world, it must address the civil dimension of war as well as the military one. "Hearts and minds" may seem to be a clichรฉ, but battle for security and stability does involve religion, politics, governance, and economics as well as counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. Half of the war and half of a successful strategy must focus on the ability of "failed" government to win the trust and support of their peoples.

All That Could Go Wrong When Jihadists Return Home — to China

BY COLIN P. CLARKE, PAUL REXTON KAN

Most of the foreign fighters that flooded into in Syria during the past few years came from the West, but some jihadists also arrived from the Far East, including as many as 300 of Western China’s Uighurs, the Sunni Muslim indigenous ethnic minority. Now that the Islamic State’s caliphate is collapsing, it seems inevitable that some will return to China, bringing with them more of the jihadist ideology and influence that has leaders in Beijing worried.

Pork Chop Hill: When America and China Went to War in Korea


The tennis-shoed soldiers emerged from the darkness on July 6, 1953, like a “moving carpet of yelling, howling men [with] whistles and bugles blowing, their officers screaming, driving their men” against the Americans as they swept up Hill 255, recalled Private Angelo Palermo.


In drones, ISIS has its own tactical air force

By: Mark Pomerleau

Commercial drones, such as the $1,500 Chinese-made DJI Phantom widely used by the Islamic State group, are providing nonstate actors with their own mini-air force, according to an expert in irregular warfare, who spoke on a panel Wednesday at the Modern Day Marine expo in Quantico, Virginia.

While many observers have awed over ISIS’ use of these platforms to drop munitions — a significant change in operations and a threat to U.S. and allied forces unseen in the last 16 years — the totality of the group’s use of drones should be taken into account, said David Knoll, a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis.

War reporting 101: Check your sources


Earlier this year I wrote about the willingness of the news media to highlight claims of civilian casualties caused by coalition forces operating in Iraq and Syria, but their apparent unwillingness to critically examine their sources or to follow up when their claims have been denied, dismissed or proven wrong by the coalition. Of course, errors happen in war and civilians are killed. But some groups and individuals also claim civilians have been killed when they don't know the facts. And in other cases they use the media to promote claims they know to be false.

For Caliph and Country: Exploring How British Jihadis Join a Global Movement

Rachel Bryson

For half of that time, the streets of the UK have been seen as a legitimate target, as witnessed most recently in both London and Manchester. Ideologues made their home in Britain, having been rejected from Muslim-majority countries because the ideas they expounded were considered dangerous. From the UK, they influenced many. In the last five years, the conflict in Syria alone has attracted over 800 British fighters.

Download the full report, For Caliph and Country, here.

Divisions Within the Global Jihad: A Primer

By Daniel Byman

Every unhappy terrorist movement is unhappy in its own way, and the global jihadist movement is no exception. Disagreements over targeting, tactics, organization and the fundamental question of what it means to be a good Muslim have plagued the movement since its inception and remain a source of weakness.

North Korea: The Inevitability of War

By Crispin Rovere

This July I outlined the case for war against North Korea, contingent on the failure of diplomacy and Kim Jong-Un’s continued march towards a long-range nuclear ICBM capability.

Six weeks on North Korea has tested an ICBM, fired two missiles over Japan, and detonated a hydrogen bomb.

Can a cyber attack justify a military response?

BY AMADO S. TOLENTINO, JR

AS guaranteed by the UN Charter, a state always has the natural right to defend itself in case of an armed attack. Meaning, if the scale and consequences of the use of force against a state reaches the level of an armed attack, then the victim state may use force to defend itself.

Fighting the cyber war in the digital age

Nick Ismail

'With loss of customer data, fines and reputational risk, embedding security into the heart of your IT and correctly educating your employees will put you in a strong position to protect your organisation from an attack'

The global proliferation of cyber attacks on financial organisations has thrust the issue of cyber security – and its seemingly routine failings – into national conversation. The most recent major data breach on Equifax, the credit report company, highlights the problems facing organisations and their investors today.


Great Powers Are Defined by Their Great Wars

BY STEPHEN M. WALT

How to explain — and, if possible, predict — a great power’s foreign policy is a perennial question for scholars of international politics. Although a lot of scholarly writing in international relations focuses on the broader system of states (bipolar, multipolar, open, closed, norm-driven, ideologically divided, etc.), we are also interested in why Country X tends to act in one way while Country Y acts differently.

2 October 2017

** Japan joins India in a new Indo-Pacific partnership

By Dr Savitri Vishwanathan
The two day visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Ahmedabad on September 13 and 14, 2017 attracted attention primarily for the inauguration of the MHSAR (Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed Rail) Project, which would enable transfer of high level technology to India, encourage “Make in India” ventures, and promote skill levels of Indian technicians. 

Lessons From India's 'Surgical Strikes', One Year Later

In 29 September 2016, Indian Army special forces struck militant positions “along” the Line of Control, in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The operations — described as “surgical strikes” in a joint Indian Ministry of External Affairs and Indian Ministry of Defence briefing — were an act of swift retaliation for a deadly attack just eleven days earlier on Indian security forces in Uri, in Kashmir’s Baramulla district, by heavily armed and well-trained attackers affiliated with Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Lethal Autonomous Weapons & RMA

By Shashank Yadav
Recently the UN’s Conference of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) established a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWs). The group is headed by Amandeep Singh Gill, an Indian diplomat. An Open Letter was promptly circulated by a group of CEOs and Founders whose companies are working in Artificial Intelligence and Robotics’ technologies, welcoming the UN move and calling for an outright ban on Lethal Autonomous Weapons.[1]

Change of guard on subcontinent

By K.N. Pandita

US Defence Secretary James Mattis recently met with his Indian counterpart, Nirmala Sitharaman in New Delhi. Two subjects took precedence over a variety of items on their agenda for talks. These were (a) meeting the challenge of global terror and (b) strategic defence partnership.


The other Pakistan: understanding the military—jihadi complex