What Lessons is China Taking from the Ukraine War?

THOMAS CORBETT, MA XIU and PETER W. SINGER

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Operation Desert Storm was a turning point in modern Chinese military history. As military planners with the People’s Liberation Army watched U.S. and allied forces make short work of the world’s fourth-largest military (on paper), equipped with many of the same systems as the PLA, it became obvious that China’s quantitatively superior but qualitatively lacking massed infantry would stand no chance against the combination of modern weaponry, C4ISR, and joint operations seen in Iraq. The result was new military concepts and over two decades of often-difficult reforms, which produced the modern, far more capable, “informationized” PLA of today.

The War in Ukraine and its Implications on India’s Space Program

KONARK BHANDARI

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The war in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the people of Ukraine. This is despite the fact that the stubborn resistance put up by Ukraine has taken Russia by surprise. This sudden invasion by Russia not only has impacted the larger geopolitical calculations of the region but also has repercussions that reverberate significantly beyond the borders of both countries. The global implications of the attack are visible in the crippling sanctions collectively imposed by the United States and allied countries on Russia. What is less apparent, however, is the impact this war has had on a country like India—in particular, the impact on its space program, which has long been the pride of Indians because of its ability to undertake low-cost innovation in a sphere notorious for cost overruns. It now appears that the war in Ukraine may, in no small measure, impact the ability of India’s space agency, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), to do just that.

We overestimated Russia’s military. Is China our real rival?

James Pethokoukis

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We in the United States have a terrible track record of judging our foes.

Yes, Mitt Romney was sort of right when he described Russia as “without question, our number one geopolitical foe,” during a 2012 presidential debate with President Barack Obama. Obama, of course, replied with what at the time seemed like a mic-drop zinger: “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back, because the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.”

China’s economic Achilles’ heel

Desmond Lachman

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Vladimir Putin’s Russia is currently learning the hard way about the devastating economic costs of the Ukrainian invasion spearheaded by its leader. Before offering Russia support in its war effort, Chinese president Xi Jinping would do well to heed these economic lessons. With all of China’s present economic weaknesses, the last thing that the Chinese economy needs now is U.S. sanctions on its exports — which support for Russia’s war would almost certainly invite.

Responding to Russian aggression: Military resolve, geoeconomics, and technological containment

EDWARD HUNTER CHRISTIE

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Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has triggered a return to traditional policies of containment and deterrence, and a revival of European and transatlantic unity. This is only the beginning of a challenging but necessary journey for a revived Western world.

After the Russian “Ruse,” China Looks for New Friends

Galia Lavi

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Despite the warnings given by Moscow and the deployment of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border, to some extent the Russian invasion caught the world by surprise, although at least one country, China, allegedly knew about the Russian intentions in advance. Less than two weeks before the invasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted President Vladimir Putin at the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The display of unity left an impression in the West of the emergence of a new axis facing the United States. Contrary to claims that President Xi asked/demanded his good friend Putin to postpone the invasion until the end of the Olympics, there have been growing estimates that China did not know of the Russian intentions, certainly not in full. Moreover, it appears that Beijing was also mistaken in its assessment of the situation after the outbreak of war, and while the cannons were roaring, China found itself caught up in its own struggle – over its status as a responsible power, the continuation of its relations with Europe and the United States, and most important, the image and status of the ruling Communist Party among the Chinese public.

What’s happened to Russia’s much-vaunted battlefield AI?

Huon Curtis

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the poorer than expected performance of the Russian army have prompted fierce debate among military commentators on why Russia’s much-vaunted military reforms of the past decade—particularly the integration of artificial intelligence technologies that were supposed to enhance Russia’s joint operations capability—seem to have been unsuccessful.

So far, Russia’s deployment in Ukraine has been a demonstration of some of the limitations and vulnerabilities of AI-enabled systems. It has also exposed some longer-term strategic weaknesses in Russia’s development of AI for military and economic purposes.

Japan prioritises semiconductor industry in bid to enhance economic security

Mariko Togashi

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The world’s semiconductor race is accelerating. Used in every electronic appliance essential to our daily lives, semiconductors are critical to national security. Driven by competition between the United States and China, as well as a global chip supply shortage and supply-chain disruptions, governments around the world are pursuing aggressive funding measures to secure access to semiconductors. Japan is no exception – strengthening semiconductor supply chains is a key element of its latest economic security bill.

The US is in the final phase of passing the CHIPS Act, which will provide US$52 billion to subsidise semiconductor manufacturing. Following the US, in February 2022, the European Commission announced the Chips Act package, a €43bn investment plan to increase its market share of global production from 10 to 20% by 2030. South Korea is also seeking to pass legislation that would provide US$450bn in investment in semiconductor production over ten years.

China signals desire to improve ties with India, but is that what New Delhi wants?

James Crabtree

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A trip to India by Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China, was an important signal of China’s desire to improve severely strained Sino-India ties, following deadly Himalayan border clashes during 2020. The 25 March visit carried fresh significance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and India’s subsequent decision not to join Western-led condemnations of President Vladimir Putin’s actions.

Beijing and Moscow hope that New Delhi might in time rediscover some of its historical antipathy to the West, reversing moves to draw India closer to the United States in particular. Some limited improvements in Sino-Indian relations are conceivable, but substantial barriers remain to broader normalisation, as India looks likely to continue to deepen security ties with the US and its partners.

Rare Earths, Scarce Metals, and the Struggle for Supply Chain Security

June Teufel Dreyer

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Alerted to their vulnerability on rare earths (REEs) when China threatened to withhold supplies to Japan in September 2010, industrialized countries began to be concerned with developing alternate sources. For Japan in particular, REEs are indispensable to the production of the catalytic converters of the automobile industry that is a mainstay of the Japanese economy. They are also components of high technology devices that include permanent magnets, rechargeable batteries, smart phones, digital cameras, light emitting-diode lights, clean energy, and fighter planes.

Although found in many places in the world outside of China—several African and Latin American countries, Canada, the western United States and Vietnam, among others—and not actually rare, the mining and refining processes of the seventeen entities that are classified as REEs had gradually been ceded to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The process is highly labor intensive and generates significant pollution, especially since REEs are often found in conjunction with radioactive substances. China with its lower wages and more lax environmental laws proved an attractive alternative that companies there were eager to take advantage of.

Do Russians Really “Long for War” in Ukraine?

Olga Khvostunova

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Since February 24, the day that Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the issue of the Russian people’s attitudes toward the war has been raised many times. Numerous surveys published in recent weeks show that the majority supports the war. Even as polling results, especially in authoritarian regimes, are often questioned, hard numbers hold a lot of symbolic value. Yet, Russian perceptions of the war are a complicated subject, and a more detailed analysis helps the public to better understand the Vladimir Putin regime and the roots of the conflict.

The Realist Case for a Ukraine Peace Deal

Stephen M. Walt

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War is on everyone’s lips and laptop screens these days. Each day, we pore over the latest news from Ukraine, read opinions from real (or imagined) experts, and try to figure out who's winning on the ground and in the air. Not surprisingly, it's easy to find both optimistic and pessimistic forecasts.

All the attention on the fighting is understandable, but what matters in the end is how the conflict is resolved. It may be emotionally satisfying to proclaim that the only acceptable outcome is Russia's capitulation, regime change in Moscow, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's prosecution for war crimes, but none of those outcomes is likely. Making these goals our war aim is also a good way to prolong the fighting and raise the risk of escalation even higher.

It’s Not Just Money That Enables China To Buy Influence

John Lee

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China already has a foreign naval base in Djibouti, which is strategically located in the Horn of Africa. The draft security agreement with Solomon Islands means it is closer to establishing another one less than 2000km to the northeast of Australia.

Why is this happening? Some are blaming the Morrison government for not giving more aid and doing too little about climate change. Others point to the deluge of Chinese money that buys influence and, as it turns out, perhaps a military base.

4 Reasons Why Putin’s War Has Changed Big Tech Forever

Steven Feldstein

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Videos from the battlefield, leaked drone surveillance, and other forms of digital communications have made Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the most internet-accessible war in history, turning Twitter, TikTok, and other internet platforms into primary sources of news on the war. But that’s not the only way in which this is a watershed moment for internet companies. Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing them to confront geopolitical realities they have largely managed to avoid. While digital platforms have long faced pressure from governments around the world to take down content, block political critics, and open local offices on which government control can be more easily exerted, Western pressure and Russia’s crackdown are accelerating a paradigm shift for how tech firms operate. Major fault lines have arisen, with far-reaching consequences for how internet platforms do business.

Technology and Power

James Andrew Lewis

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Power is the ability of individuals or groups to shape events. Technology is the practical application of scientific knowledge and the invention and use of devices to improve human performance. New technologies change economies, markets, and cultures by creating new opportunities. While some have a growing fear of technological change, technology remains the best source of continued economic growth and military strength.

Putin’s Pyrrhic Victory

Brian Milakovsky

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On March 25, the deputy chief of the Russian military declared that the main emphasis of Russia’s brutal one-month-old Ukraine invasion would now be in the east, where it would seek “the liberation” of the Donbas. To many Western observers, the aim of the statement was clear: with the Russian offensives around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other major Ukrainian cities virtually stalled and Russian forces absorbing heavy losses, Moscow needed a way to reclaim the mission. Focusing on the Donbas—where it has long been commanding, arming, and reinforcing separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces—was a convenient way to do so.

One Of Russia’s Newest Air Defense Systems Has Been Captured In Ukraine

JOSEPH TREVITHICK

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Ukrainian forces continue to capture, or at least stumble across, examples of some of Russia's most sophisticated ground combat hardware as the conflict in the country rages on. Just this past weekend, pictures emerged online showing a Russian radar-equipped air defense command post vehicle, part of a larger system known as Barnaul-T, that Ukrainian troops found during a counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region. The fact that this vehicle is intended to serve as a sensor, command and control, and communications node all rolled into one could make it a particularly invaluable source of intelligence for Ukrainian and foreign governments, as well as be a significant operational loss for Russian forces.

Ukrainian Mi-24 Attack Helicopters Fly Daring Cross-Border Strike On Russia: Reports

TYLER ROGOWAY

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Details are very limited at this time and are likely going to change as more information comes available, but reports indicate that a pair of Ukrainian Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters crossed low over the border into Russia early Friday morning and struck an oil storage facility in Belgorod. If these details stick, the pre-dawn strike is the riskiest direct attack on Russian interests outside Ukraine by Ukrainian forces since the war began five weeks ago — it would also seemingly be the first strike launched by manned aircraft against Russian territory since at least the Korean War.

A Country of Their Own

Francis Fukuyama

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Liberalism is in peril. The fundamentals of liberal societies are tolerance of difference, respect for individual rights, and the rule of law, and all are under threat as the world suffers what can be called a democratic recession or even a depression. According to Freedom House, political rights and civil liberties around the world have fallen each year for the last 16 years. Liberalism’s decline is evident in the growing strength of autocracies such as China and Russia, the erosion of liberal—or nominally liberal—institutions in countries such as Hungary and Turkey, and the backsliding of liberal democracies such as India and the United States.

Space Technologies – Key to the Modern Battlefield

Grant Anderson

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The volume of information and video footage – both from perspectives on the ground and from high in the sky – coming out of the war in Ukraine is simply astounding. Certainly, the world has been exposed to detailed and wrenching combat footage – live and near-live – in wars past, starting really in Vietnam, leaping into real-time in Operation Desert Storm in 1991, and becoming more intimate with every conflict since the September 11th terrorist attacks. But the bird's eye view into combat has never been like this.

Russia Ukraine Conundrum

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)

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… Biden said that President Vladimir Putin “has never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he moves”... “If they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine, and that our allies and partners are ready to impose severe costs and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy…” as of end February 2022, all these conjectures had been thrown in the wind. The invasion is underway. Times are extremely critical and the attention of the whole world will be on Ukraine …

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Likely insurgency in Ukraine

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM(Retd)

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Vladimir Putin has never lost a war. Over his two decades in power, during past conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Crimea, Putin succeeded by giving his armed forces clear and achievable military objectives that allowed him to declare victory. Will his latest initiative in Ukraine be any different? We will see.

Putin’s motivations in starting this war may become more evident in the coming days as Russia continues its offensive. But if his aims are redrawing borders or toppling the current government after quickly taking over Kyiv and asserting control over the eastern half of the country, the risk of a prolonged insurgency, supported by the West, would always remain. The Russians may have calculated that occupation is manageable. It is also not certain that regular Ukrainians are prepared to go for the insurgency, and a flat country doesn’t lend itself to guerrilla tactics. However, Guerrilla forces can cause havoc along the supply lines that will provide the logistic needs of an occupying force.

OSINT accurately predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But what is Kremlin’s end state?

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM(Retd)

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In any military campaign, surprise and deception are always very crucial factors. Due to the continuous satellite coverage and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) resources, knowledge of Russia’s concepts of operation, the familiarity of terrain features etc. has made defence analysts like Seth Jones of CSIS envisage accurately Russia’s like courses of actions. This includes how the operations would unfold with a full-scale Russian offensive employing land, air, and sea power on all axes of attack. It was foreseen that Russia would establish air and naval superiority. Some Russian ground forces would then advance toward Kharkiv and Sumy in the northeast and others now based in Crimea and the Donbas would advance from the south and east, respectively. Russian forces in Belarus could directly threaten Kyiv, and these forces could move on Kyiv to hasten the Ukrainian government’s capitulation.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Putin’s likely courses of action

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM, (Retd)

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Russian air and land forces are pressing into Ukraine from three sides. The three-way Russian advance is being contested but moving ahead. A US senior defence official told reporters in Washington on Thursday, “It is likely that you will see this unfold in multiple phases. How many, how long, we don’t know. But what we are seeing are initial phases of a large-scale invasion. Thus far, we have seen an advance on what are essentially three main axes of assault. One is northward from Crimea toward Kherson; another southward basically from Belarus to Kyiv; and the third from Belarus southwest toward Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. These three axes are what we believe, clearly designed to take key population centers. I’m saying they’re making a move on Kyiv…They have every intention of decapitating the government and installing their own method of governance. We see the heaviest fighting in and around Kharkiv, right now

War in Ukraine – It is Conventional war & not Hybrid or Gray

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM, (Retd)

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Russian forces began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine early on Thursday morning local time as Vladimir Putin announced the start of a “special military operation.” This closed several months of speculation and debate over the purpose of Moscow’s military build-up. However, it is easier to start wars than to end them. Once begun, their course and consequences are impossible to predict. As they say no plan survives the first shot fired in anger. It is not clear what the end state Russia wants after the military operations.

Russia – Ukraine Crisis: As West race to prevent war, why Putin will not allow Kiev to join NATO

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)

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Drumbeats of war were being sounded for some time in Ukraine Russian border with an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine. Hectic diplomatic parleys were going on. There were speculations that action may start after the end of Winter Olympic games. Saturday’s statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering forces into separatist regions of eastern Ukraine may well have been a beginning of some military action. Putin said,“I consider it necessary to take a long-overdue decision: To immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.” Putin’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk rebel regions’ independence paves the way for the long-feared Russian invasion and effectively shatters the Minsk peace agreements.

Here is wishing you and your families a very happy new year.

With the pandemic, last year has been very tough. Hope the new year will bring more hope and prosperity.

I have been running this website/earlier blogsite single-handedly for the last 10 years. I have not missed a single day during these years to upload papers.

I needed some support which is not forthcoming. I am not also getting younger.

It is now time, to move on.

I wish to thank each one of you who have been part of this journey.

As old habits of 10 years die land, I may come back as some different avtar after some time. But, I have not decided yet.

From 01 Jan 2022 there will be no further edition of Indian Strategic Studies (https://www.strategicstudyindia.com/).

Once again wish you a very happy and prosperous new year.

 

                           Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)

                           Email id: strategicstudy2012@gmail.com

Indian Space Association (ISpA): India on the Move in Space Domain

Maj. Gen. P K Mallick, VSM (Retd) 

Introduction

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on 11 October, 2021, launched the Indian Space Association (ISpA), an industry body comprising various stakeholders of the Indian space domain.

The Prime Minister said, “ISpA is a premier industry association of space and satellite companies, which aspires to be the collective voice of the Indian space industry. It will undertake policy advocacy and engage with all stakeholders in the Indian space domain, including the government and its agencies. These reforms will provide opportunities for both industry and academia.”

The members of ISpA include government bodies Organisation (ISRO) and private telecom companies. The founding members include leading domestic and global corporations that have advanced capabilities in space and satellite technologies such as Bharti Airtel, engineering firm Larson & Toubro, and other companies such as Nelco of Tata Group, Sunil Bharti Mittal’s OneWeb, Mapmyindia, Walchandnagar Industries and Alpha Design Technologies and Ananth Technology Limited . Other core members include Godrej, Hughes India, Azista-BST Aerospace Private Limited, BEL, Centum Electronics, and Maxar India. The first few start-ups to become members include Astrome Technologies, Pixxel, Agnikul Cosmos, Digantra, and Skyroot Aerospace.

Continue Reading............

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands: New Delhi’s Bulwark in the Indian Ocean

Ashutosh S. Patki

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In 2015, the Indian government drew up a 100,000 million Indian rupee plan funded by the Ministry of Shipping and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands administration to transform the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI) into the country’s first maritime hub. In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the islands for the first time, inaugurating several development projects relating to connectivity, energy, and tourism, among other things. Most recently, he inaugurated the Chennai-Andaman and Nicobar undersea internet cable, which is set to provide a high-speed internet connection to seven remote islands of the ANI chain.

The islands have also seen the recent installation of 31 GPS strong motion sensors and accelerometers, SMS alerts dissemination systems, 13 Automated Weather Stations, State Emergency Operation Centers, and the commissioning of a solar power plant at Attam Pahad. The government of India under NITI Aayog’s “Holistic Development Program” for the islands has invited global players to invest in a wide-ranging social and infrastructure development program, including investments in resorts and other tourist infrastructure.

Critical Minerals for India: Assessing their Criticality and Projecting their Needs for Green Technologies

Rajesh Chadha & Ganesh Sivamani

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Executive Summary

This working paper assesses the level of criticality of 23 select minerals for India’s manufacturing sector. Various indicators quantify the criticality along the dimensions of economic importance and supply risk. The paper projects India’s mineral needs for green technologies, including renewable electricity generation and electric vehicle manufacturing, in line with the country’s various climate change mitigation objectives over the next two decades.

Lithium, strontium, and niobium have relatively high economic importance, and heavy rare earth elements, niobium, and silicon have relatively high supply risks. The results of this projection exercise indicate that India is not equipped to meet its green technology requirements through domestic mining alone. Imports of minerals for domestic manufacturing or imports of the final product (embedded in these minerals) will be needed to meet its policy agenda on climate change mitigation.

Pakistan revamps education at the point of a gun

James M. Dorsey

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A prominent religious scholar and former member of the state-appointed Council of Islamic Ideology that ensures that legislation conforms with Islamic law, Mr. Ghamidi calls a spade a spade in a country in which that can have dire consequences.

To be sure, Mr. Ghamidi can do so because he is no longer resident in Pakistan and therefore less vulnerable. Exile may deprive him of an in-country pulpit but makes his analysis and views no less relevant.

Most recently, Mr. Ghamidi did not shy away from holding responsible just about everyone in Pakistan -- the military, the legislature, the clergy, the government, and the intelligentsia – for the brutal torture, lynching, and mutilation by a mob in the eastern city of Sialkot of a 48-year old Sri Lankan textile factory manager, Priyantha Kumara, accused of blasphemy.

The government condemned the killing and arrested alleged perpetrators but appears oblivious to the underlying structures and policies that enable religious vigilantism.

Omicron Will Test China’s ‘Zero COVID’ Pandemic Strategy

Howard W. French

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Last weekend, the number of new symptomatic COVID-19 cases in China hit a peak not seen since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The spike was seen as significant enough to warrant locking down Xi’an, a city of more than 13 million people.

Here, as a writer, I feel a little ill-equipped to flesh out this news without some kind of dramatic accompaniment, so please imagine a drumroll. The reported new high for daily symptomatic cases in this country of 1.4 billion people was all of 164

Corridors of Power: How Beijing uses economic, social, and network ties to exert influence along the Silk Road

Samantha Custer, Justin Schon, Ana Horigoshi

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This report analyzes Beijing’s efforts to cultivate economic, social, and network ties with 13 countries in South and Central Asia (SCA) over two decades. These ties foster interdependence with the PRC that have the potential to both empower and constrain SCA countries, while threatening to displace or diminish the influence of regional rivals such as Russia, India, and the United States. We marshal a robust set of qualitative and quantitative data to answer four critical questions: (i) How far does Beijing’s public diplomacy footprint extend within countries? (ii) To what extent does the PRC synchronize its economic and soft power tools in reinforcing ways? (iii) Is the PRC well-positioned to adapt its public diplomacy in the face of external shocks such as COVID-19? (iv) How do citizens in SCA countries view the PRC versus other great powers and do these attitudes diverge from their leaders? The answers to these questions provide an evidence base to inform contemporary debates about Beijing’s multi-dimensional influence playbook and how citizens respond to great powers jockeying for primacy in the region.

Full Publication (PDF)

Americans must rally against the real threat to our democracy: China

Hugh Hewitt 

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“I don’t like you,” Samuel L. Jackson yells at Bruce Willis in 1995’s “Die Hard With a Vengeance,” “because you are going to get me killed.” That sort of frustration likely sits near the root of what divides Americans as the year ends: a suspicion that the other side is going to ruin everything. Whatever the root cause, our current venom-based politics will cripple our country if only by diverting our eyes from the one genuinely existential threat: the Chinese Communist Party.

Make an early New Year’s resolution for your country’s sake: Even if you won’t put down your dueling sabers with the other side in our endless cultural and political wars, you will at least try to see that the real danger is China.

Elections in 1968, 1980 and 2004 were driven by unique national security concerns — the Vietnam War, the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan and a generalized feeling of incompetence in matters foreign, and of course 9/11. The elections of 2022 and 2024 might fall into this category if the country’s political and chattering classes reject both the tyranny of their extremes and the obsessions of social media and cable news. The country cannot afford another 15 years of self-absorption. We can’t afford five.

Saving a Water-Stressed Middle East

Neda Zawahri

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will be the most severely affected by climate change. A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts that this region will inevitably experience shorter and warmer winters, hotter and drier summers, and more extreme weather events. Combined, these changes will decrease domestic water resources. In a region already plagued by severe freshwater shortages, any decrease or variability in supplies is likely to intensify an escalating water crisis. Consequently, the region is considered one of the most vulnerable places in the world to the impact of climate change on domestic water resources.

The MENA region is also the world’s driest region. While it contains less than 2 percent of global renewable freshwater resources, it is home to around 6 percent of the world’s population. Twelve of the world’s most water-scarce states are located here, including Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Libya, Oman, the Palestinian Territories, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen.