China This Week: Governance Signals That Matter

Xinanigans | Erika Lafrennie

China proposed on October 16 adding 40 technologies, including 23 in artificial intelligence, to its catalogue of prohibited or restricted exports. Fourteen would be banned and 26 would need a licence. Until the catalogue is final, exporters of the listed technologies must register before transferring ownership abroad or letting a foreign entity take control, and pending deals are covered.

Erika Lafrennie reads this as Beijing separating where Chinese firms operate from where their intellectual property lives. From November 18, exporters need a licence to ship tunnel boring machines and their key parts to sensitive countries and regions in dispute with China. On October 21, Wang Yi and Djibouti’s foreign minister, Abdoulkader Houssein Omar, issued a joint communiqué opposing Somaliland’s bid for recognition and any collusion with Taiwan. It commits Djibouti to no specific action. The first marker is November 15, when comments on the catalogue close.

India E-Commerce Report 2026: Innovation in the Merchandise Space

CSEP | Laveesh Bhandari, Janak Raj, Aashi Gupta and Indramani Tiwari

India’s e-commerce market has grown from USD 14 billion in 2014 to about USD 120–130 billion by 2024, with projections suggesting USD 300–350 billion by 2030. A CSEP report argues that the sector is becoming core economic infrastructure, linking buyers and sellers across India’s dispersed geography and lowering search and access costs. Growth rests on wider internet access, digital payments and changing consumption. The direction is clear.

Amazon and Flipkart, including Myntra and Shopsy, hold about 55–65% market share and 87% of monthly web traffic. Yet profitability remains difficult: average revenue per user is roughly USD 107, against USD 1,330 in China, while cash-on-delivery accounts for almost 50% of orders. Last-mile delivery represents about 60% of logistics cost per parcel, and return rates range from 25 to 40%. The report calls for better measurement, enforcement against specific anti-competitive conduct and attention to gig workers.

Country Guidance: Pakistan

European Union Agency for Asylum 

The European Union Agency for Asylum issued Country Guidance on Pakistan in October 2026 to assist EU+ decision-makers under the Qualification Regulation. Leaders and prominent members of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, leaders of groups advocating Baloch rights, journalists critical of the Pakistan armed forces, persons formally charged with blasphemy, and persons with diverse SOGIESC are assessed as highly likely to qualify for refugee status.

State actors of persecution include the armed forces, Federal Investigation Agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, paramilitary groups and police. Non-state actors include Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan, Islamic State Khorasan Province, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and Balochistan nationalist groups. Risk-impacting circumstances are listed for PTI supporters, protesters, other human-rights defenders, education personnel, polio-vaccination workers, Pashtuns, Baloch, Ahmadis, Christians, Hindus, Shia Muslims including Hazaras, women and girls, and children. No areas of mere presence or high-level indiscriminate violence were identified. Indiscriminate violence not at a high level is noted for Balochistan and south and west Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; other regions, including Islamabad Capital Territory, Punjab and Sindh, present no real risk under Article 15(c). Subsidiary protection and internal protection alternative assessments remain available where refugee status is not established.

Huawei Becomes Proxy for Public Criticism of Party-State

The Jamestown Foundation | Christopher Nye

A brake-test video of Huawei’s Maextro V800, published by Dongchedi on 8 October, showed the pedal bracket breaking in all three cars during repeated emergency stops from 100 kilometres per hour. The video was then removed from Bilibili, Douyin, Weibo and other Chinese platforms after complaints, turning a product-safety dispute into public criticism of censorship and the Party-state.

Christopher Nye writes that Beijing’s promotion of Huawei as a symbol of technological self-reliance has made criticism of the company a safer proxy for dissent. Huawei received about $30 billion in central and Shenzhen government support, while the Meng Wanzhou case framed its difficulties as national ones. Efforts to suppress mockery have backfired: after the bamboo-cicada affair, Huawei complained against only 171 of more than 56,000 posts, yet removals spread the jokes further. Central media have since declined to defend the firm. The episode is still unfolding.

The China Price

Foreign Affairs | Zongyuan Zoe Liu

The US dollar’s dominance of the international monetary system remains a central source of American economic power, despite the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In 1971, US Treasury Secretary John Connally told European finance ministers that the dollar was “our currency, but your problem”, capturing the unequal influence of American monetary policy. That dominance has endured.

Zongyuan Zoe Liu places this enduring currency power against Beijing’s ambition to develop an alternative economic trajectory. The dollar became the international system’s official reserve currency in 1944 under the Bretton Woods agreement, binding signatories to the consequences of US monetary decisions. Although the arrangement subsequently collapsed and currencies began floating freely, American currency power continued to expand as countries integrated into the global economy. Liu’s headline frames China’s green economic path as a potential means of challenging that dominance. The available extract, however, does not establish the mechanisms, scale or likely effectiveness of Beijing’s approach. Its wider implications for international monetary relations therefore remain uncertain.

Why the US-China Rapprochement Won’t Last: An Indian View

The National Interest | Abhinav Pandya

The September 2026 meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping appeared to ease US–China tensions, raising concerns in India about Washington’s commitment to balancing Beijing. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s October visit to India, which began in Mumbai rather than New Delhi, added to questions about India’s geopolitical value. The thaw remains uncertain.

The article identifies unresolved disputes over Taiwan, Iran, semiconductor export controls, computing infrastructure and artificial intelligence governance. The summit reportedly produced no joint statement, although Washington extended a tariff truce until January 10, 2027, and the two sides agreed to an AI dialogue. The author interprets these developments as a tactical pause rather than a strategic breakthrough. India’s concerns also reflect strained relations with Washington, continuing distrust over trade and defence issues, and its rivalry with China following the 2020 Galwan crisis. Although India and China agreed to disengagement and de-escalation measures in 2024, the author describes persistent security concerns along the Line of Actual Control and in India’s neighbourhood. He concludes that unresolved US–China differences make lasting rapprochement doubtful and argues that the US–India partnership will remain important to balancing Chinese power.

In FocusChina’s private firms are fighting for profits. Are regulations adding to the burden?

South China Morning Post | Emma Ma

Chinese private enterprises face severe profit pressures as an ongoing national economic slowdown compounds the burden of heightened regulatory enforcement across multiple commercial sectors. Business owners across China are struggling to maintain margins while navigating stepped-up compliance mandates from state authorities. The regulatory surge coincides with the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee's fifth plenum, where senior leaders are addressing pressing macroeconomic hurdles and private sector grievances.

Compliance costs have escalated rapidly. Private firms are forced to adapt their operational models to satisfy increased government oversight alongside deteriorating broader market conditions. While Beijing has pledged to resolve these underlying economic bottlenecks, local entrepreneurs report that aggressive enforcement mechanisms continue to strain commercial viability. The ongoing policy tension highlights a critical structural friction between state-driven regulatory goals and private-sector profitability. Consequently, the fifth plenum’s outcomes will determine whether Beijing provides targeted institutional relief or maintains strict regulatory scrutiny over domestic private enterprise.

The Existential Crisis Of Statehood: Proliferation And Operational Impacts Of Proxy Warfare In Middle Eastern Conflicts

Eurasia Review | Dr. Ramzi Bendebka

Iranian-backed proxy networks are dismantling Middle Eastern statehood from within, Dr. Ramzi Bendebka contends, by arming sub-state actors and breaking the Weberian monopoly on physical violence. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen hold formal positions yet field independent military wings answerable to external patrons.

Weak post-colonial states invited the penetration, Bendebka says, after pan-Arab unity failed. Gamal Abdel Nasser's United Arab Republic, formed with Syria in February 1958, collapsed after a Damascus coup in September 1961, and the Six-Day War of June 1967 ended the ideology. Wataniyya, loyalty to the territorial state, replaced Qawmiyya. Great powers made matters worse. He describes the United States, Russia and China as treating the region as a zero-sum arena, pointing to Tartus and Khmeimim, the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2011 Libya intervention. Without respect for territorial sovereignty, he warns, states face continuing institutional collapse, proxy rule and conflict.

Operation ‘Dawn Of Yemen’

Eurasia Review | Neville Teller

The Houthis seized the port of Mocha in early September, gaining roughly 150km of coastline and threatening the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Brent crude, which had averaged about $89 per barrel for most of 2026, rose above $110 before any matching loss of output. Yemen's government, backed by Saudi Arabia, launched a counter-offensive on October 4.

Presidential Leadership Council president Rashad al-Alimi announced Operation Dawn of Yemen on October 5. Coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki said 100 fighter aircraft joined the opening phase and 324 high-value targets were destroyed. Neville Teller judges that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman probably wants the Houthis pushed away from Bab al-Mandeb, while the council frames the campaign as a step towards national reunification. The crown prince pressed President Donald Trump to strike the Houthis. Trump declined direct US participation. Teller suggests Riyadh wants to negotiate from strength, with Egyptian support on offer.

Pentagon drafts Iran attack plans as Tehran threatens aggressive retaliation

The Hill | Filip Timotija

The US military has prepared options for renewed strikes against Iran, potentially after the November midterm elections, as Tehran threatens more aggressive retaliation. US Central Command has developed strike packages for consideration by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, pending presidential authorisation. President Donald Trump has kept his options open amid stalled diplomatic negotiations and mounting pressure for concessions.

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group links the planning to frustration over negotiations and existing economic pressure from sanctions and a US naval blockade. Former Defence Intelligence Agency officer Harrison Mann identifies possible attacks on inland military targets or civilian and energy infrastructure, particularly if Israel participates. Iran threatens US bases, warships, oil facilities and Gulf infrastructure. The article reports more than 50,000 US service members and about 20 warships in the Middle East, alongside additional carrier and amphibious forces. Brent crude surpassed $117 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $102. Analysts disagree over whether renewed strikes could force Tehran to concede or instead reinforce its determination to retaliate.

The Real Danger of Big Tech

Foreign Policy | Howard W. French

Elon Musk’s influence over major technology companies and US government decisions is presented by Howard W. French as a more immediate danger than fears of artificial intelligence escaping human control. French argues that the wealth of a small group of technology leaders gives them growing influence over public policy and world affairs. The concern extends beyond AI itself.

Musk’s companies support US space activities, global communications and competition with China in advanced industries. French points to his role in government restructuring, access to citizens’ personal data and the reported interruption of Ukraine’s military-grade Starlink service. Responsibility for that interruption remains unclear: the Wall Street Journal reported that Musk ordered the slowdown, while Reuters reported White House involvement, which Donald Trump denied. The column also examines Musk’s proposed SpaceX share distribution to US children, tax debates involving Mark Zuckerberg and changes at Jeff Bezos’s Washington Post. French links these examples to the risk of state capture, in which private interests increasingly shape public decisions. He questions whether American civil society and democracy can resist the political influence of concentrated wealth.

The Services Do Not Need a Four-Star Autonomous Warfare Command

RealClearDefense | Steven Wills

The United States faces a debate over whether to establish a four-star autonomous warfare command to oversee unmanned military systems across its armed services. Retired Marine Corps Reserve General Arnold Punaro supports the proposal, drawing comparisons with the creation of U.S. Special Operations Command. Steven Wills disputes that analogy. The organisational problem differs.

Wills considers the interwar development of military aviation a more relevant precedent, when service-specific requirements encouraged distinct capabilities. The US Navy expects unmanned aircraft eventually to constitute as much as 60 percent of a carrier air wing. Wills contends that centralisation could impose uniform requirements, duplicate existing joint processes and introduce service bias into funding decisions. He contrasts America's service-led aviation development with Britain's centralised Royal Air Force, which constrained naval aviation until control of the Fleet Air Arm returned to the Royal Navy shortly before war began in 1939. He concludes that individual services should develop systems they will operate, while joint command structures concentrate on integrating capabilities in combat.

Pete Hegseth’s Campaign to Remake the U.S. Military

Council on Foreign Relations | Carla Anne Robbins

Pete Hegseth’s campaign to reshape the U.S. military has extended beyond cultural rhetoric into senior leadership appointments and promotions. Since 2025, the defence secretary has fired or blocked the promotions of more than eighty generals and admirals, representing 10 percent of the most senior officers. Almost half were female or minority officers. The changes raise questions about leadership quality and morale.

In a discussion with New York Times Pentagon correspondent Greg Jaffe, Carla Anne Robbins examines the motivations and institutional effects of Hegseth’s approach. Jaffe links the campaign to grievances over Iraq and Afghanistan, political alignment and Christian nationalist beliefs. He describes particular effects on senior women officers and concerns about whether serving leaders offer candid advice. The account also identifies congressional resistance to Pentagon budget requests and senior nominations. Disputes over munition stockpiles, damage to U.S. bases during the Iran war and spending plans have complicated relations with lawmakers. Vacancies in senior Army and Navy civilian and military leadership further illustrate the difficulties. The discussion leaves open whether the campaign will improve recruitment or weaken institutional trust and the quality of military judgement.

Time For A Reset In US-Europe Relations

EUrasia review | Luke Coffey

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has angered European allies by questioning their contributions during the two-decade war in Afghanistan. His joke about the International Security Assistance Force, suggesting that ISAF meant “I Saw Americans Fighting”, drew criticism over the sacrifices of European troops, with more than 1,100 non-American personnel reportedly killed. The dispute reflects a wider deterioration in Washington’s approach to its European partners.

Luke Coffey contrasts the 2017 National Security Strategy, which recognised NATO and European allies as important partners and identified Russia as a threat, with the strategy published in late 2025. The latter gives greater attention to Europe’s perceived shortcomings and does not identify Russia as a competitor or adversary. During Donald Trump’s first term, increased European defence investment, troop deployments, military exercises and defensive weapons deliveries to Ukraine accompanied critical rhetoric. His second term has instead combined criticism with tensions over Greenland, trade and uncertainty surrounding NATO and Ukraine. Trust is harder to rebuild. Coffey stresses Europe’s economic importance, citing transatlantic trade, investment and employment, alongside shared geopolitical interests. He warns that sustained friction could weaken cooperation when Washington faces challenges across several regions.

The EU Stubbornly Continues Its Russian Energy Dependency

Eurasia Review | Andrew Moran

Nearly five years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union remains a major buyer of Russian energy. CREA data cited by Andrew Moran show the EU took 48% of Russian LNG and 32% of pipeline gas exports from December 2022 to September 2026, while still sourcing 12% of its gas from Russia, down from 45% before 2022.

Russian LNG export revenues have reached a near-four-year high, and oil-and-gas tax revenues are projected to rise about 10% year-over-year to roughly $12 billion. The European Commission disputes Moscow’s claim that Brussels paid $321 billion since 2022, saying the figure was $209 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s 9 October diesel deal and 60-day sanctions pause drew criticism from Kyiv and Brussels. Audit findings suggest the EU will likely miss its end-2026 deadline to ban Russian LNG amid winter storage pressures. The dependency persists.

The End of the Israel Exception

Foreign Affairs | Andrew P. Miller

The United States has stayed in lockstep with Israel for three decades, Andrew P. Miller writes in Foreign Affairs, and the bond endured Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack and the ensuing war in Gaza. Two U.S. presidential administrations provided Israel with largely unconditional diplomatic and military support across that period.

The pattern is long established. It ran through the heady days of the 1990s peace process with the Palestine Liberation Organization, the second intifada, a five-year Palestinian uprising that began in 2000, and a series of conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon across the next two decades. Miller served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in the Biden administration and as Director for Egypt and Israel Military Issues on the National Security Council in the Obama administration. The headline and subtitle point to a change in American policy, but the available text stops before Miller sets it out.

Ukraine is using drones like hovering WiFi repeaters to help attack drones reach farther

Business Insider | Sinéad Baker, Jake Epstein

Ukrainian defence firms including Twist Robotics, TAF Industries, and Roboneers are deploying airborne signal repeater drones to extend line-of-sight communications over 50 kilometres and bypass Russian jamming. These specialized relay platforms, derived from platforms like the Saker Scout or repurposing bomber UAVs, hover aloft to bridge radio signals between operators and strike drones operating at extended ranges.

Electronic warfare remains a constant threat. While official Ukrainian doctrine aims to secure stable control links across complex terrain, practical execution requires rapid two-week software and hardware update cycles to stay ahead of Russian countermeasures. By elevating control signals high above terrain, these flying relays protect pilot positions from radio-frequency geolocation while giving strike platforms greater operational depth. Russia has similarly adopted airborne relay tactics to project attack drones deeper behind Ukrainian lines, prompting Western militaries like the US Marine Corps to study comparable airborne command and relay concepts.

The New Subterranean Front

The Atlantic | Simon Shuster

Ukraine’s newest battlefield runs through at least 57 steel gas pipelines beneath the Donbas and Kharkiv regions, where Russian and Ukrainian troops fight in pipes one to two metres wide. Russian infiltrations began in spring 2025, exploiting tunnels to reach positions behind Ukrainian lines. The underground front is expanding.

Above ground, drones have helped create a kill zone dozens of miles wide across a front exceeding 700 miles, where movement is exposed to attack. Brigadier General Ihor Obolensky, commanding the Khartiia Corps, said Russia pioneered subterranean warfare and Ukraine is catching up. Under Operation Veles, Ukrainian forces have retaken about nine miles of pipeline after roughly six months of fighting; Ukraine holds two pipelines, while dozens remain under Russian control. Ukrainian officers and officials report Russian preparations for a winter offensive, with control of the Donbas pipeline network potentially shaping any advance.

What the U.S. Is Really Doing in Venezuela

The Atlantic | Anne Applebaum

Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela holds tens of billions of barrels of oil reserves beneath its waters, representing a vital strategic asset that historically built Caracas and sustained four decades of democracy following its discovery over a century ago. Potential American control over portions of these vast reserves comes amidst growing criticism regarding resource extraction and democratic suppression in the region.

Environmental degradation severely plagues the estuary today. Abandoned offshore drilling platforms and leaking underwater pipelines continuously discharge raw petroleum into the brackish water, directly harming traditional fishing livelihoods. Local fishermen report navigating active gas leaks and visible oil slicks daily to secure modest catches of fish. The physical decay of Maracaibo's petroleum infrastructure highlights how historic wealth generation has given way to systemic industrial neglect. With immense reserves remaining untapped offshore, control over Venezuelan hydrocarbons remains a primary focal point of international energy competition and strategic friction across South America.

Accelerationism and Algorithms of Violence: Mind that Beef

Small Wars Journal | Mira Das and Tim Pappa

Social media algorithms can turn online rivalries among gang-involved young people into physical violence, Mira Das and Tim Pappa argue, raising concerns about vulnerable communities and cognitive security. Their study examines internet banging, in which insults and threats exchanged online escalate into real-world confrontations, sometimes involving homicide. The authors connect these incidents to engagement-driven platforms.

Public comments, videos and algorithmic recommendations can intensify hostility by making rivalries continuously visible and accelerating exchanges between people who can confront each other offline. The authors stress that online aggression does not invariably produce physical violence and that communitywide collapse remains hypothetical. They relate repeated exposure to violence, weakened social cohesion and reduced willingness to intervene to lower thresholds for aggression. The discussion extends to children in violent extremist online communities and the possible exploitation of existing vulnerabilities by hostile states and non-state actors. The authors also examine the 2024 Southport riots and foreign-influenced attempts to recruit teenagers in Ukraine, while acknowledging uncertainty over attribution. They conclude that understanding how digital environments shape behaviour could strengthen cognitive security and help explain pathways from online hostility to physical harm.

The Intelligence Battlefield

Future for Advanced Research and Studies | Zara Mansoor

Commercial satellite imagery from operators like Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs has transformed geopolitical intelligence by bringing real-time military movements and covert state actions into the public domain. Prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, public overhead photography exposed massing armor near Yelnya and Crimea months before ground forces attacked.

This democratization of surveillance allows independent researchers, human rights organizations, and Western governments to conduct public verification, exposing false-flag operations and documenting potential war crimes. Open-source intelligence also tracked illegal grain smuggling from Sevastopol and militarized artificial reefs in the South China Sea. Transparency creates operational friction. In response to constant overhead monitoring, military forces increasingly employ physical camouflage, radar-blocking nets, and active disinformation to obscure operations. Ultimately, open-source intelligence remains uneven, constrained by cloud cover, digital access gaps, and surface-level limitations such as those seen during the June 2025 strikes on Iran's underground Fordow and Natanz facilities.

AI Terrorism Is Just Terrorism

The Atlantic | Ian Bogost

Artificial intelligence has prompted renewed warnings about terrorism, but Ian Bogost questions whether the technology fundamentally changes the threat. Governments, international organisations and research institutions have examined possible terrorist uses of AI, including cyberattacks, autonomous vehicles, facial-recognition spoofing, deepfakes and engineered biological weapons. The debate has also extended to language models and their potential influence on propaganda and radicalisation.

The United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism co-published a report on the malicious use of artificial intelligence for terrorist purposes in 2021. The Middlebury Institute of International Studies published two reports in 2019 and 2020 examining risks associated with language models. Bogost also describes a Harvard Kennedy School working paper that treats a major AI-enabled terrorist event as a credible possibility. He places these concerns within the unsettled history of terrorism as a concept, from state violence during revolutionary France to anarchist violence and later separatist and ideologically motivated attacks. Cyberterrorism further complicates the definition because digital disruption can involve state actors and may occur without physical violence. The available extract questions whether AI represents a fundamentally new category of threat.

Blocking Data Centers at Home Could Put Americans’ Data at Risk Abroad

The National Interest | Annie Chestnut Tutor

United States opposition to domestic artificial intelligence data centres could push developers overseas, exposing American data to foreign censorship, tariffs and political instability. The potential relocation also threatens domestic economic activity. The central concern is data sovereignty: whether information generated by Americans remains stored and processed under United States laws and regulations.

The source cites Amazon Web Services' announcement that customer data in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates became unrecoverable following drone attacks by Iran in March and April. It also identifies uncertainty over international trade arrangements governing electronic transmissions. Meanwhile, AI supports everyday functions ranging from facial recognition and financial fraud detection to medical administration and GPS navigation. The author acknowledges public concerns about electricity costs, resource access and housing. She argues that local and state leaders, developers and technology companies shape the choices available. Domestic development restrictions could redirect investment abroad, transferring some economic activity and data governance beyond American jurisdiction.

The fastest arms race is happening in the electromagnetic spectrum

The Jerusalem Post | Merav Davidovits

Russia’s use of a Starlink-linked BM-35 strike drone over Kyiv in late January 2026 exposed how electromagnetic competition now extends beyond jamming into satellite-network access and software control. Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, took the evidence to SpaceX, which built a whitelist of authorised Ukrainian terminals in about a day. By early February, unregistered terminals along the front had gone dark.

The episode reflects a wider dependency: drones, radars, tactical networks, satellite links, GPS-guided munitions and command-and-control systems all rely on the electromagnetic spectrum. In Ukraine, countermeasures now move within weeks, while fibre-optic drones accounted for 32% of strike drones by April 2026. AI-based navigation, including KrattWorks’ Ghost Dragon, is reducing reliance on GPS. Advantage is perishable. Israel’s 5114th Spectrum Warfare Battalion reportedly defeated about 25% of roughly 1,100 Iranian drones during the June 2025 war. The contest is shifting from programmed systems toward learning systems that can adapt during an engagement.

Iran’s mountain shelters offer Taiwan a China survival playbook

Asia Times | Gabriel Honrada

Iran is repairing and expanding its underground Eagle 44 airbase in Hormozgan province despite at least three rounds of joint US and Israeli airstrikes this year, according to Planet Labs imagery reported by The War Zone. Late-September images show engineers clearing debris and runway obstructions, finishing paving on a western taxiway and preparing a redundant access link.

The March and July strikes under Operation Epic Fury were meant to sever the underground hangars from the 4.35-kilometre runway. Three support buildings remain heavily damaged, and conditions at the deep portals are obscured. Dylan Malyasov of Defense Blog estimates that sheltering preserved two-thirds of Iran's operational air fleet, with only 38 exposed aircraft lost by his April 2026 article. Surviving F-4s, MiG-29s and Mi-28s flew after the ceasefire. The source then applies the pattern to Taiwan's Chiashan tunnels, which can shelter up to 200 fighters, and to North Korea's hardened airfields.

On oil, the US keeps India guessing

The Indian Express | Shifali Goyal

The United States temporarily waived specified duties and sanctions under the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on October 16, easing immediate tariff pressure on India without removing the underlying threat. President Trump’s decision followed his October 9 statement that Russia would supply several million tons of diesel to US and global markets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would take around 60 days to assess the waiver’s implications. The relief remains reversible.

The Act authorises duties of up to 500 per cent on direct US imports from Russia and up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude and gas in the previous year if they make new purchases from October 18. The 100 per cent tariff is discretionary, making the legislation a potential bargaining instrument. India’s combined US duties reached 50 per cent in August 2025, including an extra 25 per cent linked to Russian oil, while a February 2026 interim agreement remains unsigned. The article connects this uncertainty with wider US tariff negotiations and the disruption to Gulf oil supplies following the US-Israel campaign against Iran, which began in February 2026. Rubio’s reference to Venezuelan crude offers another possible option for India’s oil mix, but neither the trade deal nor future sourcing arrangements has been settled.

Grounding A Giant: Inside HAL’s Disqualification From The AMCA Stealth Project

Eurasia Review | Girish Linganna

India’s Ministry of Defence excluded state-owned manufacturer Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) from the ₹15,000 crore contract to construct prototypes for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a fifth-generation radar-evading fighter jet. Three private industry contenders—Tata Advanced Systems Limited, a Larsen & Toubro-led consortium, and a Bharat Forge-led team—will now compete to build five flying prototypes and one structural test aircraft alongside the Aeronautical Development Agency.

This unprecedented disqualification stems from a routine technical non-compliance during evaluation rather than HAL's substantial eight-times turnover order backlog. A prototype serves as the initial flying aircraft validating aerodynamic design, while a structural test airframe undergoes ground stress testing to establish physical limits. HAL failed mandatory criteria despite partnering with Vem Technologies and JK Enterprises. India seeks a dual production base. The policy explicitly aims to establish a second domestic combat aircraft manufacturing line, diversifying India's defense supply chain while allowing HAL to re-compete for future full-scale production contracts.

US Army long-range fires make a splash on the frontline with China

Military Times | Christopher Woody

U.S. Army soldiers have intensified training with long-range weapons along the first island chain, from Balabac in the southern Philippines to Hokkaido in northern Japan, in larger and more complex exercises with allies. The effort responds to China’s growing missile arsenal, which U.S. planners fear could deny access to the Western Pacific.

HIMARS has conducted land-attack and maritime-strike missions with ranges of a few dozen to a few hundred miles. It first operated in Japan in 2021 and reached an island 150 miles east of Taiwan during Keen Sword. In the Philippines it has moved to Palawan, northern Luzon, Itbayat only 100 miles from Taiwan, and Balabac for live-fire. Typhon, able to fire SM-6 missiles a few hundred miles and Tomahawk missiles up to 1,000 miles, has remained in the Philippines since 2024, was test-fired nearly 400 miles in May 2026, and has returned to Japan. Gen. Ronald Clark called the rapid movement of launchers and munitions a joint success that gives adversaries pause. Maj. Gen. Bernard Harrington noted more than 30 consecutive months of forward presence and the need to master sustainment and sensor-to-shooter links. Chinese assessments stress the difficulty of mobility, concealment and resupply on small islands near Taiwan. Harrington pointed to lower-cost drones and unmanned vessels to preserve larger systems.

‘Jensen’s nightmare’: Huawei, DeepSeek narrow AI chip ecosystem gap with Nvidia: report

South China Morning Post | Ann Cao

Huawei Technologies is narrowing the gap with Nvidia’s chip hardware and software ecosystem through closer work with AI start-up DeepSeek, a SemiAnalysis report published on Thursday said. The firm wrote that software results and testing on the Ascend 950PR show the ecosystem gap is closer, and that Jensen Huang’s “nightmare is starting to come true”.

DeepSeek released six software modules for the Ascend ecosystem that mirror ones it built for Nvidia chips, including an Ascend version of TileLang, a programming language for kernels, the code that operates chip hardware. SemiAnalysis expects DeepSeek to rely “primarily” on Huawei’s stack by 2027 or 2028. Gaps remain. The Ascend 950PR, unveiled in March, lags Nvidia’s H100, which began shipping in 2022, though Huawei’s best kernels reach 99.7 per cent of their theoretical ceiling. Optimisations have centred on large supernodes, leaving problems for developers using x86 host processors. Beijing has made tech self-reliance a national priority. Shared fixes could compound gains.

The CCP ‘Saturates’ Religion with Socialist Values\

The Jamestown Foundation | Jonah Reisboard

China’s Communist Party is intensifying efforts to embed socialist values and Chinese cultural identity within religious life through a policy described as “saturation”. The approach seeks to weaken the organisational and spiritual independence of religious communities. It combines ideological education, state-aligned religious messaging and surveillance. Local implementation has continued for years.

The policy forms part of a four-part framework for sinicising religion: guidance, harmonisation, saturation and transformation. Local authorities distribute Party-aligned books, display national flags, organise patriotic education and encourage sermons consistent with official ideology. Inspections and digital systems monitor religious sites, leaders and activities, including through cameras, mobile applications and data analysis. The article cites 534 surveillance cameras across 178 religious sites in Nantong and an AI-assisted management system offered by Baotou Pasis Network Technology. The Promotion of Ethnic Unity and Progress Law may encourage renewed efforts, although local authorities have pursued these policies without a comprehensive national statute. The central question is how far administrative and technological controls can reshape religious identity while reducing space for independent belief and organisation.