Can India’s Lakshadweep Islands Rival Maldives? – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

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With the Maldives badly needing foreign exchange to meet its basic needs, President Mohamed Muizzu is bending over backwards to woo Indian tourists whose numbers have fallen due to the diplomatic standoff early this year.

In 2023, India was the biggest source market for Maldivian tourism, accounting for over 11% of the 1.8 million tourist arrivals. But by July 2024, India had come down to No. 6 with 71,381 arrivals, a 42.5% drop from the previous year. Currently, the highest number of tourist arrivals are from China. 228,000 Chinese have visited the Maldives so far this year. Russia accounts for 166,000 arrivals, UK 128,000, Germany 110,000 and Italy 107,000.

Be that as it may, by August 2024, India and Maldives had ended the estrangement. India offered Maldives much-needed financial relief and other bonanzas mainly to keep rival China at bay. But India is also simultaneously trying to build the Lakshadweep islands off the Kerala coast as a competitor to the Maldives, though it was at first a knee-jerk reaction to the “India Out” campaign in the Maldives.

China lacks will and way to lead the world

Quinn Marschik

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The “China Dream,” President Xi Jinping’s vision to restore China’s great power status, was the underlying theme of Xi’s 75th National Day speech.

Many influential individuals and policymakers in Washington agree as a matter of fact that the one of the China Dream’s goals is to displace the US-led international order and thus Washington’s global leadership and power.

As exemplified by the lack of concern for foreign affairs in Xi’s recent remarks, they’re wrong. Beijing is unwilling and—more importantly—unable to replace America on the global stage. US policy must adapt to this reality to put American interests first.

Xi’s 2017 speech to the 19th National Party Congress is often cited as evidence of Beijing’s intent to overturn America’s role in the world. In that speech, Xi envisions China as “a global leader” having “mov[ed] closer to the center stage.”

If Washington is to take Xi at his word, as some are wont to suggest, then China merely seeks a greater say in the global order commensurate with its rise in power – not world domination.

China, Russia And Multipolar World – Analysis

Kester Kenn Klomegah

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This article attempts to contribute to the debate and discuss some aspects of the evolutionary processes and the search for new possible models by a few countries that are dissatisfied with the unipolar system and the world dominated by the United States.

The United States has outstretched its political and economic interests around the world, China has similarly and strategically extended its tentacles across both the Atlantic and the Pacific. It has moved south conquering Africa and intensifying commercial operations in the Central Asia regions including the former Soviet republics – the backyard of the Russian Federation. That, however, Russia considered itself a global power. While still struggling and raising its shoulders, many experts say, it has little global influence and is authoritarian compared to China.

Despite its large population of 1.5 billion which many have considered an impediment, China’s domestic economic reforms and collaborative strategic diplomacy with external countries have made it attain superpower status over the United States. While the United States’ influence is rapidly fading away, China has indeed taken up both the challenges and unique opportunities to strengthen its position, especially its trade, investment, and economic muscles.

China’s Great Submarine Sinking: What We Know and Why It Matters

Brent Sadler

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Submarine operations are tightly held state secrets, so no wonder discerning fact from fiction regarding stories about them is daunting. The most recent case involves the apparent sinking of a new class of Chinese submarine—reportedly nuclear-powered.

The most remarkable element of this story isn’t the sinking. It’s the potential of China expanding the production of nuclear-powered submarines.

So, let’s recap what is being reported:

Earlier this year, naval experts tracking developments of China’s military noticed from satellite imagery a new class of submarine being built at Wuchang Shipyard, a yard in Wuhan known for constructing conventional submarines. Last Spring, satellite imagery detected barges and floating cranes at the new sub’s pier.

In late September, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. government sources confirmed a new class of nuclear-powered submarine had indeed sunk pier-side in Wuhan. As of October 8, there has not been an official statement made to corroborate this report. That said, it is highly unlikely a government source would leak such sensitive information without approval.

Hezbollah forges new command for crucial ground war after heavy Israeli blows

Laila Bassam, Tom Perry and Alexander Cornwell

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Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon, after Israel wiped out its top leadership, with a new military command directing rocket fire and the ground conflict, two sources familiar with its operations said.

Hezbollah has been diminished by three weeks of devastating Israeli blows - most notably the killing of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Friends and foes alike are now watching how effectively it resists Israeli troops that have crossed into Lebanon with the stated aim of driving it away from the border.

The Iran-backed group still has a considerable stockpile of weapons, including its most powerful precision missiles which it has yet to use, four sources familiar with its operations said, despite waves of airstrikes that Israel says has severely depleted its arsenal.

Hezbollah's command was disrupted for the first few days after Nasrallah's Sept. 27 assassination until Shi'ite militants established a new "operations room" 72 hours later, the two sources - a Hezbollah field commander and a source close to the group - told Reuters.

Nasrallah was killed, along with other Hezbollah leaders and an Iranian commander, when Israel located and bombed his deep bunker below Beirut.

Iran Energy Profile: Fourth-Largest Crude Oil Producer In OPEC – Analysis

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Iran was the fourth-largest crude oil producer in OPEC in 2023 and the third-largest dry natural gas producer in the world in 2022.1 It holds some of the world’s largest deposits of proved oil and natural gas reserves, ranking as the world’s third-largest oil and second-largest natural gas reserve holder in 2023.

At the end of 2023, Iran accounted for 24% of oil reserves in the Middle East and 12% in the world.2 Despite its abundant reserves, Iran’s total liquids production is limited because the oil sector has been subject to underinvestment and international sanctions for several years.

Although Iran is a member of OPEC, it is exempt from the production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement because its crude oil production is constrained as a result of sanctions. Despite these sanctions, Iran increased shipments of crude oil, primarily to China, in 2022 and 2023. Iran raised crude oil output by about 1 million barrels per day (b/d) from 2020 to 2023 as its exports to China grew by almost 870 million b/d during this time.3In response, the United States expanded sanctions in April 2024 to cover ports, vessels, and refineries involved in the purchase of Iran’s oil. These new sanctions allow for 180-day waivers if sanctions interfere with U.S. national security.4 If all oil sanctions were lifted, Iran’s crude oil production could return to full capacity, which we assess at 3.8 million b/d.

"The Iranian Bomb or Bombing Iran": Israel Faces A Tough Choice

Ilan Berman

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Israel Mulls Its Iran Options: With considerable trepidation, the Middle East, and indeed the wider world, is awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s massive October 1st missile barrage on the Jewish state. The White House, fearful of a wider regional war, is exerting massive (albeit mostly quiet) pressure for Jerusalem to limit its retaliation to something “proportionate” that doesn’t target either Iran’s nuclear program or its energy sites.

Israel’s own calculations are complex. Clearly, doing nothing is not an option, insofar as it would enshrine a deeply dangerous status quo – one in which Iran’s ayatollahs feel emboldened to carry out more direct attacks without worry of reprisal. A too-weak Israeli response would have the same problem, failing to sufficiently deter Tehran from further aggression. But a more serious effort targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure risks driving up global energy prices, while meaningfully impacting Iran’s extensive nuclear program is a massively complex endeavor.

Another factor is also in play, though, and it might end up proving decisive in shaping how Israel’s ultimately responds.That is a growing conviction among Israeli observers and analysts that we are now on the precipice of an Iranian “sprint” for the bomb.

Iran and the collapsing axis

Daniel Williams

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From 1979, when Shiite Muslim clerics took power in Iran, the government and its security apparatus built up armed militias in the Middle East that became a mainstay of Tehran’s anti-Israel coalition known as the Axis of Resistance.

In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, the alliance has come under intense threat. Israel retaliated not only against Hamas, in the now-devastated Gaza Strip, but also against Hezbollah, in Lebanon, which took up the Palestinian cause by launching missiles into Israel the next day, October 8, 2023.

After months of tit-for-tat aerial exchanges, the Israelis stepped up their bombardments of southern Lebanon and Beirut. It has moved three divisions of soldiers to the frontier in preparation for a ground offensive.

Houthi rebels in Yemen, a relative newcomer to the Axis, harassed commercial shipping in the Red Sea in support of Hamas. In response, Israel, the US and the UK have launched drone and rockets attacks at Houthi military targets.

Iran's multi-front battle: How Tehran is feeding an octopus war against Israel - analysis

SETH J. FRANTZMAN

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Iran and the proxy terrorist groups it backs in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, and other places continued their multi-front war on Israel this week, just as Israel increased its operations in Lebanon. The IDF has also carried out many airstrikes targeting Hezbollah command and control centers, as Hezbollah continued firing hundreds of rockets a day at Israel.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued, meanwhile, to slam Israel in statements, one bashing the US and Europe for supporting Israel’s “savage Zionist regime.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Israel against any retaliation following Iran’s ballistic missile attack on October 1.

In southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continued to fight the IDF. Iranian state media highlighted claims that three IDF soldiers were wounded on Wednesday, part of Iran’s attempt to portray Hezbollah as having remained an organized and strong fighting force, despite its losses.

Iranian state media also said Hezbollah targeted Haifa and a gas platform off the coast on Sunday.

Israeli military claims hit on Hezbollah HQ commander

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Israeli forces have reported the killing of another senior Hezbollah commander in a strike on the Lebanese capital.

The Israeli army said in a statement on X on Tuesday that Suhail Hussein Husseini, head of the Hezbollah headquarters, was killed as its fighter jets “targeted the Beirut area”.

Israel has claimed significant success since it began targeting the Lebanese armed group’s chain of command last month in a series of attacks that have also killed many civilians.

The army said Husseini’s death was another significant strike on Hezbollah. He was involved in weapons transfers between Iran and the group and in distributing smuggled weapons among various units in Hezbollah, it said.

Husseini was also responsible for the budgeting and logistics of Hezbollah’s “most sensitive projects”, including planning attacks against Israel from Lebanon and Syria, it added.

Hezbollah has not commented on the Israeli statement.

Putin’s Hidden Vulnerability

Peter Pomerantsev

Source LInk

In early August, as Ukrainian forces burst across the Russian border on their way to capturing some 385 square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region, the Kremlin maintained it had everything under control: state media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin was competently organizing relief efforts for the region’s inhabitants and directing the army to crush the invaders. “The military says Kyiv has failed to achieve its goal of securing a foothold in the Russian region,” the state-run RT network reported a day after the invasion began.

Is A Limited World War 3 Possible? – OpEd

Mathew Maavak

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Unlike popular doomsday scenarios, this will be a war of flashpoints, chokepoints and High Value Targets (HVTs)

There are signs aplenty that we may face a Limited World War III (L-WW3) in the very near-future. An L-WW3 scenario would involve a global conflict, but with restraints aimed at preventing total devastation, such as the use of nuclear weapons on a wide scale. Such a war might unfold through regional conflicts, cyberattacks, physical infrastructural sabotages, proxy wars, and intense economic and technological confrontations, rather than an all-out global military clash. They could all occur simultaneously or in rapid sequence.

The Flashpoints

A flashpoint within the context of an L-WW3 refers to a region where tensions between major powers may erupt into a wider regional conflagration with global ramifications.

There are intense confrontational pressures building up across the globe. Right on top of the list would be an outright war between Israel and Iran. On Oct 1 2024, Iran launched nearly 200 hypersonic missiles towards select Israeli targets in response to the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the assassination of several high-profile Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as certain Iranian military commanders. All the missiles were launched from an Iranian base, reportedly located near the city of Shiraz.

Zelenskyy Talks Up His ‘Victory Plan’ On European Tour As Ukraine Faces Tough Months Ahead

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks on October 10 with British, French, and Italian leaders as part of a push to secure additional military and financial aid.

The visit comes as Kyiv confronts relentless daily air strikes and a grinding Russian offensive in the east that is making incremental progress.

Zelenskiy met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris after talks in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who was in Kyiv last week after taking over at the helm of the military alliance.

Zelenskiy said on X that he “outlined the details” of his proposed “victory plan” to defeat Russian forces in his meeting with Starmer, Macron, Rutte, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome. He added that he and the other leaders agreed to work on the plan together but gave no details on what it says.

Kremlin Mobilizes Muslim Hierarchies to Support War Effort

Paul Goble

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Moscow is once again using the Muslim Spiritual Directorates (MSDs), bodies the Soviet Union set up in World War II to supervise the Islamic community, for the primary purpose for which they were established: to mobilize Muslims to fight against a foreign enemy. If anything, the role of the MSDs is even more important now in Moscow’s war against Ukraine than it was against Nazi Germany. The Kremlin has chosen to rely on non-Russian areas and poorer Russian populations for recruitment to maintain the perception of normalcy among residents of major cities (see EDM, July 14, 2022). The MSDs’ roles have also expanded to encompass more tasks than during World War II. These roles now include recruiting young Muslims, sending aid and ammunition to the front, limiting internal clashes between Muslim and non-Muslim soldiers in the field, and suppressing anger among Muslims concerning the rising number of their combat deaths (12-kanal.ru, August 18, 2023). Opinions on the success of the MSDs in meeting these tasks have been mixed, but Moscow’s decision to rely on them both reflects the Russian government’s own administrative weakness and the importance of these directorates.

The Age of Depopulation

Nicholas Eberstadt

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Although few yet see it coming, humans are about to enter a new era of history. Call it “the age of depopulation.” For the first time since the Black Death in the 1300s, the planetary population will decline. But whereas the last implosion was caused by a deadly disease borne by fleas, the coming one will be entirely due to choices made by people.

With birthrates plummeting, more and more societies are heading into an era of pervasive and indefinite depopulation, one that will eventually encompass the whole planet. What lies ahead is a world made up of shrinking and aging societies. Net mortality—when a society experiences more deaths than births—will likewise become the new norm. Driven by an unrelenting collapse in fertility, family structures and living arrangements heretofore imagined only in science fiction novels will become commonplace, unremarkable features of everyday life.

Human beings have no collective memory of depopulation. Overall global numbers last declined about 700 years ago, in the wake of the bubonic plague that tore through much of Eurasia. In the following seven centuries, the world’s population surged almost 20-fold. And just over the past century, the human population has quadrupled.

Bridging the Gap: Why Conventional Forces Need Irregular Warfare Training

 Austin Wesley

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The Army is undergoing a major transition as it refocuses toward its pacing threat and modernizes for Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) against a near-peer adversary. In preparing for this future possibility, it should not forget the lessons of the past 20 years nor fall into the post-Vietnam trap of forswearing irregular warfare (IW) and solely focusing on conventional warfare. Historically, the Army has struggled to institutionalize lessons learned from IW operations which resulted in an organization that was reactive to irregular threats and often failed to achieve strategic objectives. The Army has an opportunity to avoid these past mistakes and take a more holistic approach to how it operates in current and future environments. To proactively compete against the United States’ adversaries, Army conventional forces need to understand IW and break the reactive cycle by institutionalizing IW throughout the Army’s Professional Military Education (PME) system.

Doctrinal Framework and Definitional Ambiguity

To understand the Army’s role in Irregular Warfare we must start with doctrine, which provides the framework to understand how the Army supports the joint force and prepares for and deters conventional and irregular war. Doctrine recognizes the importance of conventional deterrence, and the resources required to do so, but also the significant contribution the Army provides to the joint force throughout the competition continuum as outlined in Figure 1 below. The Army’s doctrinal foundation, ADP-1, The Army, states “The primary responsibility of our Army is to conduct prompt and sustained land combat as part of the joint force.” Furthermore, “when not engaged in direct conflict, the Army focuses its efforts on conducting operations to prepare for and deter war.” It is easy to interpret this section as simply deterrence through modernization and training; however, doctrine codifies two categories of war, conventional and irregular, so what does the Army do to prepare for and deter an irregular war?

Precision strike: in search of a bargain cruise deal

Zuzanna Gwadera

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Quantity, as the saying goes, has a quality all of its own. Multiple countries are now exploring ways to supplement their high-cost precision-strike weapons with systems that lie somewhere between a traditional cruise missile and an uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) to help deliver mass. The aim is to provide a similar effect, but at far lower unit cost.

The United States and the United Kingdom are among those exploring options for more affordable extended-range land-attack systems. Alongside their established guided-weapons industries, both countries are also looking at potential new entrants into the sector to meet the requirement.

Cost controlIn June 2024, the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), together with the Air Force Armament Directorate, selected four US companies to design an ‘enterprise test vehicle’ (ETV) capable of delivering a kinetic payload to a range of at least 926 kilometres at a speed of at least 185 km/h. The programme emphasises modularity, affordability and the ability to mass-produce. To this end, the DIU encourages vendors to use commercial off-the-shelf components wherever possible.

The Israel–Hamas war one year on

Sascha Bruchmann, Tom Beckett, Laith Alajlouni, Emile Hokayem, Fenella McGerty,Wolf-Christian Paes,Fabian Hinz,John Raine,Nick Childs,Air Marshal (Retd) Martin ‘Sammy’ Sampson,Dana Allin,Hasan Alhasan,Nigel Gould-Davies, & Meia Nouwens

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Israel’s tactical ground campaign in GazaSascha Bruchmann and Sir Tom Beckett

Shortly after the unprecedented Hamas-led attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and while Tel Aviv weighed its response, the IISS assessed that Israel would have to either garrison Gaza or reinstate a blockade of it. One year later, Israel has chosen to do both.

Israel has proceeded methodically, isolating large areas and moving from one to the other. Gaza City came first, Rafah last. As of September 2024, three Israel Defense Forces (IDF) divisions were engaged in Gaza. The 98th (now resubordinated to the Northern Command) conducted raids in Gaza to destroy Hamas units. The 252nd currently holds the Netzarim Corridor, and the 162nd secures Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor. In pursuit of Israel’s strategic goal to eliminate Hamas, the IDF appears intent on controlling these two corridors and presenting a continuous threat of destructive raids. Israeli control of the corridors threatens Hamas’s continuing existence as an effective military force and Gaza’s governing body, and will thus strengthen Israel’s negotiating position. show more

Despite war, continuity in Palestinian politicsLaith Alajlouni and Emile Hokayem

To attack enemy space capabilities, Army eyes doubling expert cadre

Theresa Hitchens

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The Army could more than double the number of soldiers with expertise in space operations if top brass approves a proposal by Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC) to implement the service’s new(ish) space vision, according to SMDC officials.

The idea is to create a new space-centered military occupational specialty, called “40D Space MOS,” that for the first time would include non-commissioned officers, Col. Donald Brooks, commandant of the Space and Missile Defense Center of Excellence, told Breaking Defense on the cusp of the annual Association of the US Army (AUSA) conference.

Right now, he explained, only about 500 commissioned officers have space specialities, with another 874 enlisted soldiers essentially being “borrowed” from other specialty units such as intelligence or air defense for short periods of three to four years. The new MOS is envisioned to initially include “upwards of 1,800 billets” for enlisted personnel by fiscal 2030. The plan also would bolster the officer corps up to some 800 by FY32.

SMDC is hoping for a decision from Army leadership by the end of October, Col. Mark Cobos, commander of the Army’s 1st Space Brigade, added, although obviously the command hasn’t any authority on the timeline.

The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific

Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik

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Under Democratic and Republican administrations alike, policymakers in Washington have in recent years reached a consensus about the need to compete with China. They have paid growing attention to the technological and military aspects of the competition, shoring up relationships with partners and allies, and trying to prevent China from gaining access to critical technologies. But they have neglected one key area: the United States’ diplomatic ground game. To compete effectively with China, Washington must better support the efforts of its often beleaguered and overstretched diplomats abroad. 

Why Experts Are Calling for a New Strategy to Improve U.S. Access to Semiconductors ― The Technology that Underpins Artificial IntelligenceFeature Story | September 16, 2024

Megan Lowry

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Every advanced AI program ― from the widely available ChatGPT to those run by the Defense Department ― depends on access to semiconductors. These computer chips are in almost every digital device today, and newer semiconductor technology is essential for the enormous computing power that AI requires.

While the U.S. first developed semiconductors and led globally in semiconductor development and manufacturing in the last century, today it produces just 12% of all semiconductors. Following passage of the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, the federal government has embarked on a sweeping effort to promote and protect U.S. leadership in the semiconductor industry to ensure economic and national security. A new National Academies report recommends actions for the U.S. Department of Defense ― coordinating with the commercial sector, universities, and other parts of government ― to secure its access to this critical technology.

We spoke with the chair of the committee that wrote the report, Liesl Folks, director of the Center for Semiconductor Manufacturing and professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Arizona, about how access to semiconductors is shaping AI and what the report’s recommendations could mean for its future.

Ukraine Leads World in Drone Innovation and Production

Taras Kuzio

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The world’s first drone, digital, and cyber war is taking place in Ukraine. Previously, these wars were one-sided, as seen when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (2001–2021) and Azerbaijan (2020) used drones against Afghan and Armenian combatants who did not possess this technology. In Russia’s war against Ukraine, both sides are using domestic and foreign drones, but Ukraine has a ten-to-one advantage in their number (X.com/ChrisO_wiki, August 21; Golos Amerikii, September 19). Resilience, innovation, adaptation, and quick learning have allowed Ukraine to stay one step ahead of Russia. Horizontal ties between civil society, volunteer groups, a decentralized government, and the Ukrainian military define Ukraine as fundamentally different from Russia’s vertically organized, authoritarian state and society.

Ukraine is fighting a people’s war that includes domestic and foreign volunteers, tractor and truck drivers, and the private sector (see EDM, March 16, 2022). Ukrainians in occupied territory use their mobile phones to collect data on Russian troops, passing information to the military through the eVorog app (Kmu.gov.ua, May 15, 2022; Ukrinform, August 6, 2022). Surveillance cameras in shops, offices, and roads are used as intelligence sources on Russian troop movements. Other Ukrainians work alongside foreign volunteers in Ukraine’s internet technology (IT) army, hacking and launching cyber-attacks against Russia in the “civilianization of the digital battlefield” (see EDM, July 3). 3D printers, tablets, mobile telephones, and laptops donated by volunteers are used on the front line to make spare parts and as targeting tools (Euromaidan Press, September 21)..

Army Battalions Don’t Have Organic Cyber Intelligence Capabilities—Here’s Why They Should

Jacob Scheidemann

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Would you send a unit to war without adequate, organic protection from the threats it’s most likely to face? On its surface, the answer seems obvious. But when it comes to cyber threats, every Army battalion is effectively in this situation, reliant on external defenses, with little visibility on how or when these defenses are employed to protect it.

The US military represents a target-rich environment for evolving cyber threat actors intent on, for instance, extracting sensitive personally identifiable information, standard operating procedures, deployment plans, and technological data. A majority of cyber assets, however, operate from within the confines of higher-echelon units, removed from the kinetic happenings of battle. While this organization is effective in centralizing cybersecurity for operational and strategic prevention and response purposes, current Department of Defense structure leaves tactical-level units like Army battalions vulnerable to the tactical effects of cyber warfare. Remedying this vulnerability requires creative organizational solutions, developed and implemented before such efforts are too late. One simple idea? Push cyber expertise down to this level.

The Next Breakthrough In Artificial Intelligence: How Quantum AI Will Reshape Our World

Bernard Marr

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In the ever-evolving landscape of technology, a new frontier is emerging that promises to reshape our world in ways we can scarcely imagine. This frontier is Quantum AI, the powerful fusion of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. It's a field that's generating immense excitement and speculation across industries, from finance to healthcare, and it's not hard to see why. Quantum AI has the potential to solve complex problems at speeds that would make even our most advanced classical computers look like abacuses in comparison.

Demystifying Quantum AI: The Power Of Qubits And AI

But what exactly is Quantum AI, and why should you care? At its core, Quantum AI leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to process information in ways that classical computers simply can't. While traditional computers use bits that can be either 0 or 1, quantum computers use quantum bits or qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously thanks to a phenomenon called superposition. This allows quantum computers to perform certain calculations exponentially faster than classical computers.

How Does the Ready Force Deal with a Rapidly Changing Operational Environment?

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It is fine to have long-range force structure planning, but what happens when the operational environment is rapidly changing for your operational force? How to adapt the ready force effectively and adeptly in a timely manner? And what consequences does that have for one’s long-range force structure design?

The presentation by Jennifer Parker, Expert Associate National Security College of the Australian National University, focused on a key challenge which raises such questions. Her presentation was entitled: “The Contested Maritime Domain: Challenges for an Integrated Force?”

What she focused on was the changing nature of littoral maritime operations, the emergence of new technologies and concepts of operations by various actors notably in the Black and Red Seas, and how those shifts in approach affected maritime operations.

The bottom line of her analysis was that the new technologies and approaches had a clear impact on capital naval vessels, and with relevant defence measures, technologies and relevant training, capital ships could still operate effectively in the littorals. But the point can be put bluntly: you need to adapt your ready force to deal with new technologies, new con-ops and technologies.

Moscow and Islamabad Discuss LNG Cooperation

Syed Fazl-e-Haider

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A Russian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk arrived in Islamabad on September 18 for a two-day visit. To strengthen bilateral relations, they held separate meetings with top Pakistani leadership, including President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Connectivity and energy collaboration were the main focus of the bilateral discussion (Geo TV, September 19). This visit comes at a time when the two nations are exploring future liquefied natural gas (LNG) transactions. Moscow announced that it could export LNG to Pakistan by 2026, once its LNG export terminals are operational. This would allow for Pakistan to reconsider some of its previous agreements regarding LNG. Pakistan’s long-term LNG contracts signed in 2016 and 2021 with Qatar include price re-opening clauses, meaning Islamabad could renegotiate the LNG price with Doha in 2026. Russia’s LNG offer would become a strategic option for the South Asian nation to secure a favorable LNG import price amid Western sanctions restricting its options in the region (Energy Update, August 13). Pakistan has encountered numerous obstacles in building and establishing energy infrastructure, and a partnership with Russia would benefit not only Pakistan’s energy industry but also Russia’s sanction-bound economy.

In 2022, Pakistan initiated talks with Russia on energy purchases, particularly LNG and oil (see EDM, October 5, November 11, 2022; Dawn, September 19). Pakistan-Russia energy collaboration deepened in 2023 when Pakistan began purchasing Russian crude oil at a discount (see EDM, August 16, 2023). In September 2023, Pakistan received its first liquefied petroleum gas shipment from Russia (Express Tribune, September 18).

The Reality of Afghanistan’s Land Link With China

Aarish U. Khan

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Looking at Afghanistan’s map, one observes a narrow strip of land protruding northeastward out of its northern part. Called the Wakhan Corridor, it is a colonial construct to keep the borders of the Indian subcontinent, then under the British empire, and the Russian Empire from intersecting. Today, the 350-kilometer long and 16-to-64-km wide Wakhan Corridor separates Pakistan and Tajikistan and ends at a short 92 km border with China’s expansive Xinjiang province.

This small strip of land is sparsely populated by around 10,000 people, but its strategic significance can be gauged from the fact that NATO built a military camp in the area during its presence in Afghanistan but never manned it to avoid geopolitical escalation with China. The Chinese also operated joint patrols with Afghan troops in the area in 2018 and initiated talks with the Afghan officials for constructing a military base in the region. China is believed to be operating a secret military facility in the isolated Tajik town of Shaymak, 30 km from its border into Tajikistan and around 14 km from the Tajik-Afghan border to monitor activity in this crucial border region.

Besides its strategic significance, the Wakhan Corridor is now widely seen in Afghanistan as a possible direct trade conduit with China. Currently, there is no trade link on their small shared border; Afghanistan’s trade with China is instead routed through third countries, like Pakistan.

Japan: America’s Indispensable Ally in the 21st Century

Mohammed Soliman

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In the 20th century, the United States and Great Britain formed a special relationship that defined the century, ensuring American primacy and British survival as the world transitioned from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana. Across the Atlantic, once a British colony, America stood as a steadfast ally in the two great world wars. In addition to their shared culture and history, Washington recognized London’s pivotal role as an anchor state for American power in Europe. Against the specter of German aggression and continental hegemony under Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolf Hitler, the US-UK alliance served as a bulwark against Imperial German and Nazi domination of continental Europe. Since the dawn of this millennium, there has been a clear shift in the global economic balance of power from Europe to Asia, and a new military balance of power will follow, as history informs us. Consequently, the fate of American power now hinges on the Indo-Pacific, where the specter of Chinese regional hegemony looms large. Washington is currently engaged in a vigorous debate over American grand strategy for the 21st century, with advocates of an Asia-first approach competing against those who prioritize Europe. As the Ukraine War drags on, this debate is likely to cross partisan lines. At its core is the question of whether a new successor, such as Japan, is taking over London’s role from the last century. There is little doubt that Japan now serves as the anchor of US power in the Indo-Pacific. The US-Japan alliance is poised to define America’s Asian and global role, as well as Japan’s survival—just as the US-UK alliance did in the 20th century.

The U.S. Must Confront the Multi-Front War Against the West

Ambassador James S. Gilmore III

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October 7th is the first anniversary of the unprovoked attack and murder of Israeli citizens by Hamas in Gaza. A year later, kidnapped innocents remained as hostages to Iran's goal of making Israel uninhabitable by Jews, causing the Jewish people to abandon—their country, and driving the United States from the area.

October 7 and the Israeli war must be seen in the context of the global war that we are now in. As a red-letter date, October 7 should be paired with February 24, the date in 2022 when Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, to attack Kyiv directly, topple its government, murder its leadership, and absorb the sovereign nation of Ukraine into Russia by force.

Americans must wake up to the world conflict that is now underway, and ask ourselves what must be done to ensure our own survival. So far the U.S. has followed a strategy of "deterrence" to prevent invasion and aggression from starting in. the first place. That strategy has failed in both Europe and the Middle East and may fail any day in the Pacific as China threatens the democratic island of Taiwan.

Can The Euro Or Renminbi Really Challenge The US Dollar? – Analysis

Masaaki Yoshimori

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The United States dollar has long held its position as the world’s dominant currency. This is mainly due to the vast size and stability of the US economy and the unmatched liquidity of its financial markets. These factors have solidified the dollar’s supremacy in international trade and finance, with the US economy valued at over $25 trillion. However, in recent years, two other currencies — the European euro and the Chinese renminbi — have emerged as potential challengers to the dollar’s supremacy.

The euro, underpinned by the Eurozone’s robust institutional framework, offers political stability and a solid monetary authority. These traits make it a compelling candidate for a global reserve currency. Nevertheless, the structural and political fragmentationwithin the European Union and divergent fiscal policies among its member states undermine the euro’s reliability as a universal reserve asset. As of 2023, the euro accounts for just 21% of global foreign exchange reserves compared to the US dollar’s commanding 58%. Even with the issuance of 400 billion euros (over $447 billion) in jointly backed debt during the Covid-19 crisis, the Eurozone still lacks the deep and liquid debt markets needed to elevate the euro’s status as a reserve currency.

Breaking The Barrier: Four Years Of PRC Military Activity Around Taiwan – Analysis

Thomas J. Shattuck and Benjamin Lewis

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On September 17, 2020, the Republic of China’s (Taiwan’s) Ministry of National Defense (MND) released its first-ever “real-time military update” documenting two incursions into the country’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) by two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) the day prior. An ADIZ is “an area of airspace over land or water, in which the ready identification, location, and control of all aircraft . . . is required in the interest of national security,” essentially a buffer zone before an aircraft reaches a country’s defense area or territorial airspace. For Taiwan, its ADIZ includes the all-important median line of the Taiwan Strait, a line created in 1955 by General Benjamin Davis, Jr., that divides the waterway in half, originally meant to deconflict military operations by Taiwan and China.

Since 2020, Taiwan’s ADIZ has become the center of the PRC’s military activity around Taiwan. That first report in 2020—containing a map of Taiwan’s ADIZ, the approximate flight paths of the aircraft, and photos of the aircraft taken by Taiwan’s air force—started a new practice in Taipei for publicizing military pressure and coercion by Beijing.

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad Year

Raphael S. Cohen

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There is no shortage of misery in the Middle East today. As the region marked the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre, Israel mourned the murder of around 1,200 Israelis and worried about the fate of the remaining 100 hostages held by Hamas. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed in the subsequent war, hundreds of thousands are currently homeless, and much of Gaza lies in ruins. Lebanon, too, is now devolving into a war zone.

Often overlooked amid all this misery is Iran, which is also having a terrible, horrible, very bad year. But unlike most of the other actors here, it has only itself to blame.

The United States Has More at Risk in the Middle East Than You Probably Think

Douglas London

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Who is winning the expanding conflict between Israel, Iran and its proxies? In his fiery United Nations speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defiantly justified his expanded war against Hezbollah and boasted that Israel was winning. The rhetoric from the other side, from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, is little different, celebrating the costs their “resistance” is inflicting on Israel and its allies.

I spent many of my 34-plus years in the CIA’s clandestine service living in this region, meeting our Iranian, Hezbollah and Palestinian agents, and working with Israeli and Arab counterparts. And among the most enduring lessons I learned is that measuring winning and losing in the Middle East is often not readily apparent in the moment. The consequence of any single event sometimes unfolds over generations.

Iran’s recent attack on Israel featured some 180 to 200 ballistic missiles and caused minimal damage, according to Israeli claims. Yet in the midst of this same attack, eight Israelis were killed, and at least seven seriously wounded, when two Hamas gunmen opened fire in the normally tranquil, tree-lined area of Jaffa. Even as we await what could conceivably be further large-scale direct attacks between Israel and Iran that might further draw in the U.S., the Jaffa attacks show that Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, are adapting and likely steering toward what foreign policy types call a more “asymmetrical” strategy.

Would An All-Out Israel-Iran War Send Oil Prices Skyrocketing? – Analysis

Abubakar Siddique

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The prospect of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel on October 1.

Israel has threatened retaliation, fueling concerns of a disruption to the flow of oil and gas from the energy-rich region.

Global oil prices have already soared 9 percent since Iran’s attack, which came amid Israel’s yearlong war in the Gaza Strip and its invasion of southern Lebanon earlier this month.

A full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran could upend the international energy supply and send shock waves throughout the global economy, experts warn.

“Major disruption of regional oil and gas exports is likely to have a material impact on the global economy,” said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

‘Act Of Aggression’

Israeli media reports suggest the country could target Iran’s nuclear sites or its oil or gas installations.

Has Israel Crossed the Line in Lebanon?

Janet Abou-Elias

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In the past week, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon has significantly expanded, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announcing that troops have captured a Hezbollah base in the border village of Maroun al-Ras. Drone footage has also revealed destruction in the nearby village of Yaroun. This escalation raises serious concerns about the growing humanitarian crisis and the potential for further violence in the region.

Anyone paying attention should be deeply concerned about Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon. Though Israel describes its activity as “localized raids” and “very limited in scope and the area of operation,” the Lebanese government has said that a million people, a fifth of the population and a larger number than the displaced of the 2006 war, have fled their homes.

The human suffering is devastating, and the potential for continued tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran could very well be the “October surprise” for the upcoming U.S. election. The risk of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran is not a distant or abstract threat; it’s a rapidly unfolding reality. With each passing day, the chances of escalation grow, pulling not only regional actors but also the United States deeper into the fray. A senior U.S. official has confirmed that the Pentagon plans to send thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in response to heightened tensions, underlining Washington’s ongoing commitment to Israel’s security despite its violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) over the past year.