Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh,
The relationship between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky has unquestionably improved but the real prize Kyiv seeks seems out of its reach, for now.
After nine months of extraordinary diplomatic acrobatics and verbiage, Trump still prefers to give Russian President Vladimir Putin yet another chance to talk him around, over blunt military escalation.
But there were – among the fawning compliments and the conviction an elusive peace was near – bits of good news for Ukraine. Even Trump’s final word on the matter, a Truth Social post delivered as he left for Mar-a-Lago, suggested “They should stop where they are” – a ceasefire along current battle lines, suggesting something Kyiv could very much tolerate.
“We have to stop where we are. This is important, to stop where we are, and then to speak,” Zelensky told CNN during a news conference after the meeting.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a news conference in Lafayette Park outside the White House in Washington, DC on Friday. - Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Indeed, the day could have gone a lot worse for Ukraine.
First, Trump extolled the deadly virtues of the Tomahawks, the supply of which he said his meeting with Zelensky was all about. “That is why we are here,” he said. “Tomahawks are very dangerous… It could mean escalation – a lot of bad things could happen.” This is a threat unimaginable when Trump first came to power: the president contentedly signaling he might give the cream of his arsenal to Zelensky so Ukraine can strike deep into Russia.
Yet at the same time, Trump undermined his own threat, by immediately making the nature of the deal before Putin clear. “Hopefully we will be able to get this war over with without thinking about Tomahawks,” Trump added. “I think we are pretty close to that.”
The truth is, Trump is likely still far from the deal he called “Number 9,” a reference to the number of peace agreements around the world he claims to have had a hand in. But his new approach – of threatening real military escalation, through US technology purchased by European allies and then supplied to Ukraine – might, over time, bring closer the deal he still says Putin wants.
The threat is as psychological as it is military. The US lacks the inventory to provide the “thousands” of Tomahawks Trump said he joked with Putin on Thursday he might give Ukraine. The missiles are normally sea-launched, and so at best Ukraine would have to wait months to receive a few dozen that it would have to adapt to launch on land.
They are remarkably expensive. Their range is not much greater than the drones Ukraine currently fires nightly deep into Russia. If it used them, Kyiv would have to hit targets worth the Tomahawk’s $2 million price tag – which means hitting serious military or government infrastructure, something Trump might veto. Trump and Zelensky appeared to have agreed to leave their arrangements ambiguous: Zelensky declined to offer any details on their Tomahawk conversation, saying the US did not want escalation. Asked if he was optimistic or pessimistic on the missiles, he replied he was “realistic.”
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