Ian Bremmer
U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet in the Oval Office at the White House on Feb. 13, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Andrew Harnik—Getty Images
In Donald Trump’s first term and at the opening of his second, the U.S. President and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked to have a special relationship. Similar views on the value of strongman domestic politics and a common aim to check China’s global ambitions made them well-aligned partners. Things have changed. Common interests remain the bedrock of relations between the U.S. and Modi’s India, but the personal trust that helped build their relationship has now cooled significantly.
You might think the biggest source of tension between the two leaders is Trump’s search for leverage over Russia’s Vladimir Putin—in particular, his bid to halt India’s import of sanctioned Russian oil to force Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. But it’s another armed conflict that’s at the heart of the friction.
When fighting began in May between India and Pakistan following a terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, Trump leaped at the chance to play peacemaker, and he tasked Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with de-escalating tensions. Despite India’s plans for a joint announcement of a deal to end the fighting, Trump claimed personal credit, and Pakistan compounded Modi’s anger by suggesting Trump deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. Trump then responded to a Pakistani diplomatic charm offensive with lucrative investment deals on energy, cryptocurrencies, and critical minerals. His request that Modi add his support to the U.S. President’s long-standing Nobel ambitions even further alienated the Indian Prime Minister, who began to express his frustrations.
That’s the background for Trump’s decision in August to impose 50% tariffs on India, ostensibly for its continuing purchases of Russian oil. Modi’s response? He accepted an invitation from China’s Xi Jinping to join a number of world leaders, notably including Putin, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin meant to highlight China’s growing diplomatic clout. It was Modi’s first trip to China in seven years. A ride and hour-long chat with Putin in the Russian President’s limousine sent a clear message of defiance that India and its leader would not be pushed around by the White House.