Fertility Decline in China and Its National Military, Structural, and Regime Security

Michael S. Pollard, Jennifer Bouey, Agnes Xiangzhen Wang, Rakesh Pandey

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The People’s Republic of China is facing a rapid change in its population’s age structure following a dramatic decline in fertility that began in the 1960s; by 2024, the fertility rate had dropped to the world’s second-lowest level—well below the replacement level. China’s population shrank in 2022, and the country is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. To fully understand what China’s demographic trends mean for China’s future, the effectiveness of the country’s population policies, and the impact of those policies on China’s regional and global foreign security relationships, RAND is publishing a series of analyses focusing on the potential consequences of these demographic trends. This report, the first in the series, provides an introduction to China’s demographic trends through 2050 and an overview of historical population growth policies. The authors also explore the implications of these trends for China’s national security, and they propose potential policy responses.

The authors discuss issues related to military security, including military size, military quality, and international alliances. The analysis of structural security considers its effects on the economy, innovation, and the population’s well-being. The analysis of regime security focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s drive for self-perpetuation. Potential policy responses discussed include efforts to increase the fertility rate, introduce immigration, address the rural-urban divide, seek technology solutions, and increase the retirement age. Not all of these approaches are deemed viable.

Key Findings

China’s fertility level rapidly plunged from more than six children per woman in the 1960s, to fewer than three in the 1970s, to below two in the 1990s, to close to one in the 2020s; this is the second-lowest fertility rate in the world.

Because of population change, China faces a steep labor force contraction—a 28-percent decrease by 2050 from the labor force’s peak population in 2015.

China’s old age dependency ratio (those ages 65 and older relative to the working age population) will more than double from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.52 by 2050, increasing social support pressures.