Mona Yacoubian
On June 13, Israel launched widespread strikes against Iran. They hit military bases, nuclear sites, and residential buildings, assassinating senior Iranian officials and scientists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks would continue for “as many days as it takes to remove the threat” Iran poses to Israel. The attacks came days before U.S. and Iranian negotiators planned to meet for a sixth round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. officials denied playing any role in the strikes, and President Trump urged Iran to “make a deal,” warning that more attacks would be “even more brutal.”
Q1: Why did Israel attack Iran now?
A1: While Israel has been planning this attack for months, a confluence of factors likely led to its decision to act last night. Israel’s mounting fears regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, coupled with its assessment of a closing window of opportunity to strike Iranian nuclear targets, likely played into the timing of the Israeli attack. Israeli strikes on Iran last October significantly degraded Iran’s missile defenses, and Israel’s decimation of the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah eroded Iran’s second-strike capabilities. Compounding concerns, for the first time in 20 years, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a resolution yesterday citing Iran’s noncompliance with nuclear non-proliferation. Iran angrily responded that it would build an additional enrichment site. Finally, the United States was about to engage in a sixth round of indirect talks with Iran in pursuit of a nuclear deal. Israel has long expressed its skepticism over the negotiations, fearing that Iran was merely buying time. Last night’s strikes have likely derailed those talks.
Q2: What options does Iran have to respond in the short and long term?
A2: Iran’s short-term options will depend on how much damage Iran sustained in this first round of Israeli strikes. As of this writing, Tehran has launched drone strikes on Israel. It is likely to launch ballistic missiles as well. Iran has also vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region; however, that would draw the United States into the conflict, dramatically increasing the risks to Iran. Iran’s long-term strategy is currently less clear. Iran’s military leadership has been decapitated in the strikes, likely impacting its longer-term planning. Among the more extreme options, Iran could opt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point that would imperil global energy trade and lead to skyrocketing oil prices. However, Tehran is unlikely to make this move as it would undermine its own oil trade and provoke Gulf Arabs at a time when their ties had been warming.
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