Kenneth M. Pollack
Last night, the government of Israel decided to roll the dice on a military solution to Iran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. Given the remarkable capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, the operation could do tremendous damage to the Iranian nuclear program. But then comes the hard part.
Iran has limited options to respond directly. The danger, however, is that Israel has opened a Pandora’s box: the worst Iranian response might also be the most likely—a decision to withdraw from its arms control commitments and build nuclear weapons in earnest. Containing those furies over the long term is likely to be the real challenge for both Israel and the United States. If the two parties fail, the Israeli gamble could ensure a nuclear-armed Iran rather than prevent one.
TEHRAN’S BAD OPTIONS
It’s very early in this latest battle between Israel and Iran, too soon to know how long the fighting will last or how much damage the Israelis will do. Still, Iran now faces some significant constraints on its ability to fight back, end, or even retaliate against the Israeli campaign.
Iran’s first problem is distance, and its second problem is Israel’s defenses. Because of both, Tehran has little ability to use its air force against Israel. What’s more, with roughly 700 miles of Iraq, Syria, and Jordan separating them, Iran cannot mount a ground attack against Israel—which would be suicidal against the far more competent Israeli army in any event. Consequently, if there is going to be a direct Iranian military retaliation, it will almost certainly be shouldered by Iran’s missile and drone forces, which have proved to be of limited capability against Israeli defenses.
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