Daniel Byman
In a wave of attacks, the Israeli military struck the Natanz nuclear facility, military bases, and other targets in Iran, and also assassinated Iran’s three top military leaders among many other senior military officials and several nuclear scientists. Israel’s military strikes are likely to set back Iran’s nuclear program, but parts of the program will remain intact to varying degrees, and Iran will seek to retaliate. The resulting mess might lead the United States to become involved, despite the Trump administration’s desire to avoid attacking Iran.
Iran has had an active nuclear program for decades, and in recent years, the country has appeared closer than ever to achieving a nuclear weapon. While Tehran’s progress was once sporadic, it has steadily developed its enrichment facilities and other nuclear weapon components. In 2015, the Obama administration negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which froze the program, but President Trump withdrew from it in 2018, declaring it a “bad deal.” Since then, Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent, a high level from which the country could easily reach the 90 percent level needed for weapons-grade material.
Israel has long seen an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat, but despite repeated warnings, for many years it avoided striking Iran for several reasons. Benjamin Netanyahu, though often talking tough, was cautious regarding the use of military force during most of his time as prime minister. Before the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, a conflict between the two countries seemed to have several powerful deterrents:a Hezbollah response that would involve massive rocket and missile salvos on Israel;
direct Iranian retaliation, including missile and drone strikes from its own arsenals;
the possibility that other Iranian proxies in the region, such as Hamas, would join in coordinated attacks;
and the danger that Tehran could resort to international terrorism targeting U.S. and Israeli interests.
The United States consistently opposed a strike as well, doubting Israel’s ability to carry it out alone and unwilling to commit U.S. forces to support such an operation. U.S. leaders also feared that a strike would destabilize the Middle East and lead Iran to redouble its efforts to seek a nuclear weapon.
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